Welcome back to #WeeklyWonk. Each weekend I publish an article on a subject relating to elections in Onondaga County and New York State. Often these articles will have detailed stats to consume but sometimes they will be a recap of a prominent issue or on relevant election law. I am turning my eye to the 2023 elections. Today I look at the Town of Geddes, a former red town that is now one of the most balanced towns in the County.
The Town of Geddes sits to the West of the City of Syracuse and borders the southern shore of Onondaga Lake. It is a mid-sized suburban town with 12,153 voters, ranking 9th out of 19 towns and considered the smallest suburban town. The Town of Geddes is considered a purple town, with a trend towards Democrats over the last few years. The makeup of Geddes is 34% Democrat (4,127 Voters), 30% GOP (3,653 Voters), and 29% non-Enrolled (3,490 voters). This year I am breaking down the Towns into as equal as possible regions and Geddes is easily broken into 4 different regions. Northern Geddes considered the Lakeland area (eds 5, 17, & 20) has 2,258 voters (19%). The center of Geddes is the village of Solvay (Eds 1, 3, 4, 9, 12, 13, & 14), the largest village in Onondaga County with 3,956 voters (32%). The Southern portion of Geddes is considered the Fairmount area and for this article I have broken into East and West portions. Eastern Geddes is the Fairmount portion that borders the City of Syracuse (eds 2, 6, 11, 15, & 19) has 2,865 voters (24%). Western Geddes is the portion of Fairmount that borders Camillus (eds 7, 8, 10, 16, & 18) has 3,074 voters (25%).
In a new feature I am bringing to the #weeklywonk this year I am doing a heat map for each political subdivision. I will be looking at the current partisan makeup of each individual ED and heat mapping its partisan lean based on the advantage for the Democrats and GOP. Looking at the heat map we really see that Geddes is regionally divided. EDS 5 & 20 have strong GOP lean (-10-15%). Eds 7 has a moderate GOP (- 5-10%). Eds 2 & 13 have slight GOP leans (-0-5%). Eds 3, 14, & 18 have slight Democratic advantages between 0-5%. Ed 6, 7, 11, 12, & 15 has a moderate Democratic advantage (+5-10%) and ED 1, 4, 8, 10, & 19 has a strong Democratic advantage (+10-15%). Ed 9 has a superior Democratic lean (-15-20%). Ed 16 is evenly split between Democrats and the GOP. Republicans seemed to be clustered into the Lakeland portion of Geddes in the north and the Center of Solvay while Democrats dominate the rest of Solvay and the Fairmount portion of Geddes in the South.
Since 2009 The Town of Geddes has steadily trended towards the Democrats and has switched from a solid GOP town to purple town that is leaning Democrat. The Democrats have gained 436 voters since 2009. The GOP has lost 547 voters during that time. The Non-enrolled has gained nearly as many voters as the Democrats with 428 more voters. Like many other communities though, the Democratic gains and GOP losses seemed to have plateaued since 2020. The non-enrolled though have made nearly all their gains since 2020.
Three of the four regions in Geddes show slight Democratic leans with one showing a strong GOP lean. Both the East and Western portions of the Fairmount region have Democratic leans. The West near Camillus has a larger Dem lean (+7.87) than the East portion near Syracuse (+6.14). Solvay is not the most Democratic with +7.25 but the non-enrolled outnumber the Republicans in this village. The Lakeland portion is the most GOP and most partisan of the regions with a strong GOP lean (-10.23) and non-enrolled outnumbering the Democrats.
Looking at the growth of voters since the last redistricting cycle we compare it with date from right before redistricting of 2012. The Town of Geddes grew by 915 active voters since 2011. The Village of Solvay saw the most growth with a gain of 365 voters. In close second, we saw the Eastern Fairmount region with 246 voters. The Western Fairmount had moderate growth of 190 voters. The northern Lakeland region saw the least growth with just 114 voters. The Democratic areas of Geddes are growing fast than the GOP area which leads to Geddes’s transformation over the last few years.
Every region in the Town of Geddes has trended towards the Democrats since the last redistricting. Since 2011 the Democrats have grown its advantage in Geddes by 7.59%. The Western region has had the most change with a 11.2% shift towards the Democrats. The Eastern region also saw a shift towards the Democrats +8.93%. The Village of Solvay had a moderate shift of +6.11%. The northern Lakeland region had the smallest shift towards the Democrats with just +3.16%. This shows why the town of Geddes.
When we look at the comparative races, we see a purple town that fluctuates on even and odd years but consistently votes a few percentage points behind Onondaga County as a whole. In 2022 the Town of Geddes voted for Governor Hochul’s by 51.53%, 2.25% worse than her win in Onondaga County rate of 53.78%. In 2021 the Town of Geddes voted for Anthony Brindisis for Supreme Court by 52.50%, 2.08% worse than the county result rate of 52.50%. In 2020 Geddes President Biden had a significant win in Geddes gaining 55.36% if the vote, but also lost 3.52% points behind his Onondaga County win of 58.88%. In 2019 Cicero voted for Democrat Mark Kolinski for County clerk by only 47.58% losing just 0.15% of his Onondaga County rate of 47.73%, doing the best comparatively. The last head-to-head town office where Democrats contested was Supervisor in 2021 where Democrats lost by over 21%. Local offices still lag the countywide and state offices, especially on odd years.
The Town of Geddes Democrats have already caucused and will run candidates for Town Board and Village of Solvay. If you are interested in helping these candidates or joining the Geddes Democratic committee, contact their chairperson John Ferguson at jferg393@gmail.com
That is, it for this week’s edition of the #WeeklyWonk. Next week I will dive into the Town of Onondaga, another purple town on the cusp. As always go to dustinczarny.com and subscribe to get all your content and election news updates. I run that website, along with these series of articles, as part of my voter education. I never take ad money or charge subscriptions paying for the site with my own personal funds. Subscribe here.
Dustin M. Czarny 