Welcome back to #WeeklyWonk. Each weekend I publish an article on a subject relating to elections in Onondaga County and New York State. Often these articles will have detailed stats to consume but sometimes they will be a recap of a prominent issue or on relevant election law. I am turning my eye to the 2023 elections. Today I look at the Town of Onondaga, another former red town that is now trending purple.
The Town of Onondaga sits to the southwest of the City of Syracuse and borders the valley wrapping around the southern tip of Syracuse Lake. It is a mid-sized suburban town with 16.433 voters, ranking 8th out of 19 towns and right in the middle of all the towns. The Town of Onondaga is considered a purple town, with a trend towards Democrats over the last few years. The makeup of Onondaga is 33% Democrat (5,371 Voters), 31% GOP (5,049 Voters), and 29% non-Enrolled (4,856 voters). This year I am breaking down the Towns into as equal as possible regions and Geddes is easily broken into 4 different regions. Northeastern Onondaga bordering the Strathmore portion of Syracuse (eds 4, 5, 8, 19, & 20) has 3.906 voters (27%). The Northwestern portion of Onondaga gets close to the Camillus and Elbridge (Eds 2, 6, 7, & 17) with 3,427 voters (21%). The Southern portion of Onondaga is the more rural part of Onondaga ordering the towns of Marcellus and (eds 1, 3, 9, 10, & 11) has 4,645 voters (28%). Eastern Onondaga Wraps around the South End of the city bordering Lafayette and Dewitt and contains the Onondaga Indian Nation Territory (eds 4, 5, 8, 19, & 20) has 3,906 voters (24%).
In a new feature I am bringing to the #weeklywonk this year I am doing a heat map for each political subdivision. I will be looking at the current partisan makeup of each individual ED and heat mapping its partisan lean based on the advantage for the Democrats and GOP. Looking at the heat map we really see that the Town of Onondaga has some of the most diverse partisanship of any Town in the County. ED 6 has substantial GOP lean (-15-20%). Eds 1, 10, & 11 have a strong GOP (- 10-15%). Eds 17 has a slight GOP lean (-5-10%). Eds 2, 3, 7, & 9 have a borderline GOP lean (0%–5%) Eds 13 & 19 have borderline Democratic advantages (0-5%). ED 8 & 12 have a slight Democratic advantage (+5-10 %). Ed 4, 5, 14, 16 & 18 have a strong Democratic lean (+10-15%). Eds 15 & 20 have overwhelming Democratic leans. The Closer to the border of the city the stronger the Democratic lean. Republicans tend to dominate the farther South and West in the town you travel.
Since 2009 The Town of Onondaga registration has steadily trended towards the Democrats and has switched from a solid GOP town to purple town in 2020. The Democrats have gained 918 voters since 2009. The GOP has lost 568 voters during that time. The Non-enrolled has gained the most with975 more voters. Like many other communities though, the Democratic gains and GOP losses seemed to have plateaued since 2020. The non-enrolled though have made steady gains since 2016. The N/E may even overtake the GOP next year.
Two of the four regions in Onondaga show strong Democratic leans with two showing a strong GOP lean. Both the East and Northeastern portions bordering the City of Syracuse have Democratic leans. The Northeast bordering the western side of Syracuse has a slight Dem lean (+9.58). The Eastern portion bordering the south of Syracuse and Dewitt has a strong Democratic lean (+11.99). Both regions the N/E outnumber the GOP. The Northwestern region bordering Camillus and Elbridge has a slight GOP lean (-6.83%). The southern region is the most GOP but still just a slight GOP lean (-7.58). The non-enrolled in these two regions outnumber the Democrats. Onondaga is becoming a sharply divided town in terms of partisanship with opposite halves.
Looking at the growth of voters since the last redistricting cycle we compare it with date from right before redistricting of 2012. The Town of Onondaga grew by 1,761 active voters since 2012. The southern region grew the fastest, with 530 voters. The eastern region grew the second fastest with 468 more voters. The Northwestern region was next with 419 voters. The Northeastern region grew the least with just 233 voters.
Every region in the Town of Onondaga has trended towards the Democrats since the last redistricting. Since 2012 the Democrats have grown its advantage in Onondaga by 9.07%. The Northeastern region had the most dramatic Democratic growth (+16.01%). The rest of the town grew at about the same rate. The Northwest region had +6.77% Democratic Growth. The Eastern region grew by +6.54%. The Southern region grew by 6.15%. With all regions growing in both voters and Democratic growth in a mostly even way it is indicative of new and young Democratic and N/E voters replacing older aging GOP voters.
When we look at the comparative races, the Town of Onondaga votes slightly behind Onondaga County as a whole. In 2022 the Town of Onondaga only voted for Governor Hochul’s by 49.38%, 4.40% worse than her win in Onondaga County rate of 53.78%. In 2021 the Town of Onondaga only voted for Anthony Brindisis for Supreme Court by 45.84%, 6.66% worse than the county result rate of 52.50%. In 2020 Onondaga voter for President Biden, the only race that got a majority Democratic vote, by 54.78, but also lost 4.10% points behind his Onondaga County win of 58.88%. In 2019 Onondaga only voted for Democrat Mark Kolinski for County clerk by 41.46% losing 6.27% of his Onondaga County rate of 47.73%. The last head-to-head town office where Democrats contested was a to fill vacancy on Town Council in 2022. Democrats lost that race by 8.32%. Even years Democrats do slightly better, but the Town of Onondaga tends not just vote behind Onondaga County, but a few points behind what the enrollment of the Town might indicate.
In 2023 the Town of Onondaga Democrats have already caucused. They are contesting the Two Town Council seats. Justin Polly and Noelle Relles are running for the two Town seats on a plank of diversity and transparency. If you are interested in helping these candidates or joining the Onondaga Democratic committee, contact their chairperson Justin Polly at
OnondagaTown.Dems@gmail.com.
That is, it for this week’s edition of the #WeeklyWonk. Next week I will dive into the Town of Pompey, a traditionally red town that has seen Democratic success in the last few years. As always go to dustinczarny.com and subscribe to get all your content and election news updates. I run that website, along with these series of articles, as part of my voter education. I never take ad money or charge subscriptions paying for the site with my own personal funds. Subscribe here.
Dustin M. Czarny 