Welcome back to #WeeklyWonk. Each weekend I publish an article on a subject relating to elections in Onondaga County and New York State. Often these articles will have detailed stats to consume but sometimes they will be a recap of a prominent issue or on relevant election law. I am turning my eye to the 2023 elections. Today I look at the Town of Skaneateles, another seemingly red town with some surprising voting habits.
The Town of Skaneateles sits in the southwestern corner of our county. It sits south of Elbridge and Manlius, east of Lafayette, and north of Fabius. It is a smaller rural town with 5,979 voters, ranking 10th out of 19 towns at the upper end of the rural towns. The makeup of Pompey is 30% Democrat (1,801 Voters), 38% GOP (2,295 Voters), and 25% non-Enrolled (1,510 voters). The Town of Skaneateles has two distinct features that define the town, the village of Skaneateles and Skaneateles Lake that divides southern part of the town in two. This allows me to break up Skaneateles into 4 distinct regions Nort, East, West & Village. The North of Skaneateles that borders Elbridge with 1,364 voters (23%). The East region of Skaneateles sits east of the lake in the southern part of the town bordering Marcellus & Spafford and has 1,251 voters (21%). The Western region is on the other side of the lake in the southern part of the town and orders Cayuga County with 1,241 voters (21%). The Village of Skaneateles is the smallest region it most densely populated and the larges region in terms of voters with 2,213 (35%).
In a new feature I am bringing to the #weeklywonk this year I am doing a heat map for each political subdivision. I will be looking at the current partisan makeup of each individual ED and heat mapping its partisan lean based on the advantage for the Democrats and GOP. Looking at the heat map we really see that the Town of Skaneateles is mostly uniform surrounding the village, while the village itself is a true borderline. ED 5 has an overwhelming GOP lean (-20% and above). ED 1, 3, 6, & 8 have a moderate GOP lean (-10-15%). ED 7 has a slight GOP lean (-5-10%). The Village Eds 2 & 4 are nearly even. EDs 4 has a borderline GOP lean (-0-5%). ED 2 is the only democratic ed with a borderline Democratic lean (0-5%).
Since 2009 The Town of Skaneateles has seen the typical changes that suburban towns have experienced despite being a more rural town. The GOP has seen a steady decline losing 301 voters since 2009. The Democrats gained 379 voters since 2009. Meanwhile the Non-Enrolled continues steady year over year gains with 289 more voters since 2009. Democrats have gained the most since 2009 but those gains are with in the 5-year Trump period (2016-2020). Overall Skaneateles seems to be more partisan than other towns with the growing non-enrolled voter segment not growing as fast here. The Town could be the canary in the coalmine if long term Democratic gains continue after the 2024 election in Onondaga County.
Only one of the three regions in Skaneateles shows a Democratic lean, and just barely at that. Most have significant GOP leans. The North of Skaneateles has a superior GOP lean with 16.50% and non-enrolled outnumbers the Democrats. Western Skaneateles has a moderate GOP lean with 12.97%. ED 6 is similar with a GOP lean of -2.20%. Eastern Skaneateles has a moderate GOP lean with -8.79%. Eastern and Western Skaneateles are more normal rural areas where Democrats are back in second place. The Village of Skaneateles is a purple island in this sea of red. It is nearly even with Democrats having just 2 more voters than the GOP for a .09% difference.
Looking at the growth of voters since the last redistricting cycle we compare it with date from right before redistricting of 2012. The Town of Skaneateles grew by 581 active voters since 2012. A significant portion of that growth occurred in the Village of Skaneateles which gained 197 voters. However, the other regions grew at a decent rate as well. Ed 3 gained 204 voters and ED 4 gained 150 voters. The other 4 eds had similar small growth. The North gained 136 voters. The East gained 125 voters. The west gained 123 voters. The equal gain indicates a possibility for even more growth in those areas.
Every Region in the Town of Skaneateles has trended towards the Democrats since the last redistricting, except for Northern Skaneateles. Democratic registration share only gained by 1.18% in the North. The Village grew the most in voters and in Democratic registration share with +15.31%. The East and the West were right behind though. The Democratic vote share in the West grew by 13.86% and the East by 13.14%. Though those areas stay significantly red the trend of growth in the East and West seems to be Democratic, whereas the North growth seems to be more GOP friendly.
When we look at the comparative races, the Town of Skaneateles we see a surprising result, specially among female candidates. Skaneateles Registration is significantly more GOP than Onondaga County but in 2022 it voted for Governor Hochul’s by 52.06%, only 1.78% worse than her win in Onondaga County rate of 53.78%. That surprisingly good Democratic result didn’t seem to be reflected in other races. In 2021 the Town of Skaneateles only voted for Anthony Brindisis for Supreme Court by 45.31%, 7.19% worse than the county result rate of 52.50%. In 2020 Skaneateles voted for President Biden by 55.43%, only losing 3.45% points behind his Onondaga County win of 58.88%. In 2019 Pompey only voted for Democrat Mark Kolinski for County clerk by 37.70% losing 10.03% of his Onondaga County rate of 47.73%. The last head-to-head town offices where Democrats contested was for Town Supervisor in 2015. Democrat Mary Sennet was defending her Town Supervisor seat and only lost by 1.69% when Skaneateles was much more GOP than it is now. Democrat Chris Legg did win a Town Board seat in 2019, however Skaneateles Democrats did not field any candidates in other years. The Comparative races do show an interesting anecdotal pattern of favoring women candidates, regardless of Party. In each race a woman fared better than expected against the male candidate and in 2020 Biden’s candidacy saw national support trends from women voters. It is also voting Democrat more significantly in even years where National and state races dominate the ballot.
In 2023 the Town of Skaneateles Democrats have already caucused. Town Councilor Chris Legg is running for Town Supervisor and Ralph G. Demassi is running for one of the Town Justice seats. While it is not a full slate of candidate recent trends indicate they may be able to do better than expected. If you are interested in helping these candidates or joining the Skaneateles Democratic committee, contact their chairperson Dee VOUNAS at deevounas@yahoo.com.
That is, it for this week’s edition of the #WeeklyWonk. Next week I will dive into the Town of Tully, my last Town I will be looking at in 2023. As always go to dustinczarny.com and subscribe to get all your content and election news updates. I run that website, along with these series of articles, as part of my voter education. I never take ad money or charge subscriptions paying for the site with my own personal funds. Subscribe here.
Dustin M. Czarny 