Welcome back to #WeeklyWonk. Each weekend I publish an article on a subject relating to elections in Onondaga County and New York State. Often these articles will have detailed stats to consume but sometimes they will be a recap of a prominent issue or on relevant election law. I am turning my eye to the 2023 elections. Today this series turns away from the towns of Onondaga County and to the Onondaga County Legislative districts that have competitive races. This week I investigate Onondaga County Legislative district 7.
OCL 7 sits in the northeastern part of the City of Syracuse and middle portion of the Town of Dewitt including east Syracuse. Before redistricting it had more of the town of Dewitt and wrapped around the City of Syracuse including some of the 17th Ward. The southern part of Dewitt and 17th ward portions were drawn out and more of the city was added. This made the current makeup of OCL 7 slightly larger and slightly more Democratic than before with 17,723 active voters. The partisan breakdown is 44% Democrat (7,751 Voters), 20% GOP (3,623 Voters), and 32% non-enrolled (5,682 voters). OCL 7 is made up of three distinct regions, parts of the 4th Ward of Syracuse (with one ed from the 3rd ward), parts of the 5th ward of Syracuse, and parts of the Town of Dewitt. The part of 3&4th ward of Syracuse is the largest portion of the district with 6,328 voters (36%), followed by the center portion of Dewitt with 5,713 voters (32%), and the parts of the 5th ward with 5,682 voters (32%).
In a new feature I am bringing to the #weeklywonk this year I am doing a heat map for each political subdivision. I will be looking at the current partisan makeup of each individual ED and heat mapping its partisan lean based on the advantage for the Democrats and GOP. Looking at the heat map we really see that OCL 7 has some of the most Democratic leaning election districts in the county. 19 of the 28 election districts (Ward 3 ED 5, Ward 4 eds 2, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10 & 12, Ward 5 Eds 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, & 11, & Dewitt 18) rate in the highest category with over an overwhelming +20% Democratic lean. 2 eds (Dewitt 11 & 21) has a strong Democratic lean with (+15-20%). 4 eds (Dewitt 7 & 9, Syracuse Ward 4 eds 3 & 4) have a moderate Democratic lean (+10-14%). 2 eds (Dewitt 13 & 15) have a slight Democratic lean (+5-9%). And one ed, Dewitt 17) has a borderline Democratic lean (+0-4%).
OCL 7 is a mostly City district and has followed the same pattern that the City of Syracuse has since 2011. A growing Democratic enrollment, a rapidly growing non-enrolled population, and a rapidly decreasing GOP enrollment. Republicans lost 884voters, Democrats gained 1,332 voters, and the non-enrolled gained 1,644 voters from 2011-2022. Though the redistricting plan was passed by the legislature and county executive in 2021, the lines did not go into effect until the 2023 elections. With the new lines in place, we see an even more Democratic and non-enrolled population. The GOP lost 135 voters, the Democrats gained 377 voters, and the n/e gained 600 voters. The GOP redistricting plan used OCL 7 to stack more Democrats into to protect some of the GOP held seats that touch on northern and southern Dewitt.
All three regions of OCL 7 have a Democratic lean, with the city portion leading the way. All three regions the non-enrolled outnumber the GOP indicating massive Democratic tendencies. The Ward 3 & 4 part region has the most Democrats but the 2nd biggest Democratic lean with +23.29% enrollment edge. Ward 5 part is the most Democratic with +28.65. The town of Dewitt portion is still a solid Democratic lean with +12.38%.
Looking at the growth of voters since the last redistricting cycle we compare it with the data from right before redistricting of 2011. The area of the new OCL (post 2022) itself grew by 1,660 voters, The largest growth occurred in the Ward 3 & 4 region (662). This is followed by the Town of Dewitt (552). Finally, Ward 5 part grew by 446 voters. Redistricting makes this comparison tricky, however if we look at the effect of the redistricting lines had on the old district, it gained 385 voters.
Redistricting really makes looking at the long-term Democratic trend of a district troublesome. If we just look at the eds that are in the new district the current version of OCL 7 grew 9.53% more Democratic since 2011. The city portion grew the most with Ward 3 & 4 growing by 10.26% & Ward 5 grew by 10.31%. The Dewitt portion grew substantially more Democratic with as well, by 7.96%. However, if we want to look at the effect redistricting had on the old vs. new district, we see it grew more Democratic by 2.51% just by changing the lines.
Unfortunately, when we look at the comparative races, we can only run numbers at the OCBOE for the old district when the races all happened. With the Democrats gaining 2.51% in redistricting, we could see an even larger leads for Democratic candidates in this district. The old OCL 7 district performed consistently 6-7% better than Onondaga County as a whole. In 2022 Governor Hochul won this district with 60.45% of the vote, 6.67% more than her totals in Onondaga County. In 2021 Anthony Brindisi won this district with 59.18% of the vote in his race for Supreme Court, 6.68% ahead of his totals in Onondaga County. In 2020 President Biden won this district with 64.99% of the vote, 6.11% ahead of his win total in Onondaga County. In 2019 Mark Kolinski won this district with 54.96% of the vote, 7.23% ahead of his total in Onondaga County. In 2021 Mary Kuhn was re-elected with 55.70% of the vote despite running against Ed Carni, a well-financed GOP politician with a history of winning inside the city.
Mary Kuhn, however, is not running for re-election in 2023. Part of the GOP redistricting was to draw her and Linda Ervin into the same district, and out of district 7 creating an open seat. Dan Romeo is the Democratic candidate for this seat, an E. Syracuse fireman and City of Syracuse school board member. You can learn more about his campaign here: https://www.facebook.com/RomeoForLegislature.
That is, it for this week’s edition of the #WeeklyWonk. I have finished my investigations into the Towns of Onondaga County. I have now turned my attention to the competitive seats for the Onondaga County legislature. With only 5 seats in contention this will take me close to Election Day when I will take another look at Onondaga County and the City of Syracuse. Next week I will investigate Onondaga County Legislative District 10, which historically has had the closest results the last 3 cycles and potentially the most likely Democratic flip. Subscribe to dustinczarny.com for all content and election news updates.
Dustin M. Czarny 