Welcome back to #WeeklyWonk. Each weekend I publish an article on a subject relating to elections in Onondaga County and New York State. Often these articles will have detailed stats to consume but sometimes they will be a recap of a prominent issue or on relevant election law. I am turning my eye to the 2023 elections. Today this series turns away from the towns of Onondaga County and to the Onondaga County Legislative districts that have competitive races. This week I investigate Onondaga County Legislative district 10.
OCL 10 has been known as the Manlius district for decades. For most of its existence it made up the three villages and southern 2/3rds of Manlius. However, during redistricting the village of Manlius and southeast corner was removed and the district was shifted to the northwestern two thirds. It was also necessarily reduced in size as it as Manlius as a whole has grown faster than the rest of Onondaga County. This made the current makeup of OCL 10 slightly smaller and slightly more Republican than before with 20,819 active voters. The partisan breakdown is 36% Democrat (7,438 Voters), 29% GOP (5,956 Voters), and 29% non-enrolled (6,148 voters). OCL 10 is made up of six distinct regions for the purpose of my article. The two villages Minoa (2,476 voters, 12%) and Fayetteville (3,323 voters 16%). The other four regions are made up of regionally grouped election districts. The Northwest portion borders Cicero and Madison County (3,467 voters 17%). The Northeastern portion is between Minoa and the Town of Dewitt (3,832 voters 18%). The Center portion is between Fayetteville and the Town of Dewitt (4,295 voters 21%). Finally, the Southern portion borders the Town of Pompey and west of the village of Manlius (3,426 16%).
In a new feature I am bringing to the #weeklywonk this year I am doing a heat map for each political subdivision. I will be looking at the current partisan makeup of each individual ED and heat mapping its partisan lean based on the advantage for the democrats and GOP. Looking at the heat map we really see that OCL 10 has is mostly made of democratic and democratic leaning election districts with republican leaning districts in Minoa and the Northwest portion of Manlius. Only 1 election district has a slight Republican lean, ED 10 (GOP +5-9%). Four more eds, 1, 9, 15, 33 are borderline Republican (GOP 0-4%). Five eds, 2, 19, 22, 24, and 20 are borderline Democrat (DEM 0-4%). Six eds, 3, 11, 12, 18, 26 & 29 are slightly Democratic (DEM 5-9%). Eight eds 4, 7, 8, 13, 16, 28, 31, & 32 are moderately Democratic (DEM 10-14%). Finally, four eds 5, 6, 17, & 21 have strong Democratic leans (DEM 15-19%).
OCL 1, much like the Town of Manlius as a whole, has flipped in terms of registration over the last decade. Like many suburban communities Democrats and Non-Enrolled have grown the registrations while the GOP has lost significantly. Republicans lost 1,233voters, Democrats gained 1,264 voters, and the non-enrolled gained 1,213 voters from 2011-2022. Though the redistricting plan was passed by the legislature and county executive in 2021, the lines did not go into effect until the 2023 elections. With the new lines in place, we see an attempt to try and slow the growth of Democratic voters by shifting the populace slightly more GOP, though all parties’ lost voters. The GOP lost 327 voters, the Democrats lost 560 voters, and the n/e lost 87 voters. However, this redistricting did for the first time put more non-enrolled voters in the district that Republican which is usually a good sign for Democratic candidates.
Five of the six regions of Onondaga County Legislative District 10 tend to lean Democratic. The most Democratic region is the village of Fayetteville with a strong Democratic lean of +15.17. This is followed by the center region with a +9.20 slight Democratic lean. The east region is a close third with a +8.53 slight Democratic lean. The southern region is fourth with a +6.98 slight Democratic lean. The Village of Minoa is basically evenly split with a borderline +2.38 Democratic lean. The only region with a GOP lean, although borderline one, is the Northwest with -1.21 GOP lean.
Looking at the growth of voters since the last redistricting cycle we compare it with the data from right before redistricting of 2011. The largest growth came in the Center region (+652 voters). This was followed by the eds making up the village of Minoa (+529 voters). The center region grew at a similar rate (+526 voters). This is followed by the Northwest region growth (+428 voters). The village of Fayetteville grew by +318 voters. The east eds grew the least by +36 voters. One of the reasons the Minoa eds grew and the East did not grow as much is the Onondaga County Board of Elections altered the eds moving voters out of the East region and into the village of Minoa. Because the district was forced to shrink during redistricting it lost 1,68 voters between 2022 and 2023.
Redistricting really makes looking at the long-term Democratic trend slightly troublesome, however the makeup of this district did not change much. If we just look at the eds that are in the new district the current version of OCL 10 grew 11.61% more Democratic since 2012. The biggest Democratic gains came in the southern region with a phenomenal +19.90% gain. This is followed by Fayetteville with a +16.40% gain. Then the Center with + 15.38%. The East grew by +9.90%. Even the republican friendly portion of the district, the Northwest had a significant +7.11% Democratic gain. Only the village of Minoa actually had a GOP gain, with +2.09% going to the GOP. However, despite the shift north the GOP only gained 0.72% registration shift towards the GOP.
Unfortunately, when we look at the comparative races, we can only run numbers at the OCBOE for the old district when the races all happened. With the GOP only gaining 0.72% in redistricting, we could see similar results in future years. The old OCL 10 district performed consistently 2-5% better than Onondaga County as a whole, which makes it as close to a representative district as possible. In 2022 Governor Hochul won this district with 58.82% of the vote, 5.04 more than her totals in Onondaga County. In 2021 Anthony Brindisi won this district with 54.73% of the vote in his race for Supreme Court, 2.23% ahead of his totals in Onondaga County. In 2020 President Biden won this district with 61.97% of the vote, 3.09% ahead of his win total in Onondaga County. In 2019 Mark Kolinski barely lost this district with 49.86% of the vote, 2.13% ahead of his total in Onondaga County. In 2021 Mark Olsen won election to this district by just a 1.97% margin. The district has been one of the closest elections in each of the last 3 cycles and will.
Challenging Mark Olsen to flip this district is first time candidate Carrie Wood. Manlius as a whole is coming off a big special election that pitted the Democrats against the GOP and the Democrats once again came out victorious. Carrie is hoping to ride that momentum and the success of the Manlius Democratic Committee to flip this seat blue. Check her out here: https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100089957784722.
That is, it for this week’s edition of the #WeeklyWonk. I have finished my investigations into the Towns of Onondaga County. I have now turned my attention to the competitive seats for the Onondaga County legislature. With only 5 seats in contention this will take me close to Election Day when I will take another look at Onondaga County and the City of Syracuse. Next week I will investigate Onondaga County Legislative District 15, which had a major transformation making it a city only district in 2023. As always you can subscribe to dustinczarny.com for all content and election news updates.
Dustin M. Czarny 