Welcome back to the #weeklywonk. This is my weekly article on election statistics and related topics. These articles give insight into the data and statistics that make up our home, Onondaga County and New York State. Each week I investigate a different election event or political subdivision that can give us clues into our rich and diverse electoral tapestry. Now that the June primary has been certified we turn our attention to the General Election. We start with a look at Onondaga County as a whole which will be holding an election for a newly created Family Court seat this November.
We have 306,182 active registered voters in Onondaga County as of the close of July 2024. Democrats make up 115,655 (38%_, Republicans 82145 (275, non-enrolled 88629 (29%), Conservatives 5,065 (2%) Working Families 1423 (<1%) and 13,265 are in various other not recognized parties (4%). For the purposes of this article, I am breaking up our county into five distinct regions. We have the city of Syracuse (71,098 voters 23%) in the center. The northern towns of Cicero, Clay, and Lysander (81,922 27%) is the largest region. The Western towns of Camillus, Elbridge, Geddes, Onondaga, & Van Buren (61,077 20%) are grouped together. The Eastern grouping of towns is Dewitt, Manlius, & Salina (64,817 21%). The largest collection of towns and acreage belongs to the southern group of Fabius, Lafayette, Marcellus, Otisco, Pompey, Skaneateles, Spafford, & Tully (26,792 9%) also has the fewest number of voters.
The NYS Election reforms in 2019 made it easier to register to vote and we have seen that in the growth of voters in Onondaga County which exploded in 2020 topping out at 308,296 voters. The current voters pf 306,182 represent the highest total since 2020 and second highest since records I have going back to 1996. After Presidential elections voters fall off the election roles falling inactive and eventually off the roles entirely as mail check cards as well as registration changes take effect and outweigh new registrations. It is likely that after the Presidential election is finished, we will challenge the 2020 record as new registrations pick up over the next 90 days.
When we look at the partisan trends in Onondaga county, we can see both long term trends since 1996 and also short-term trends since the last presidential election. Since 1996 Democrats have added 29,955 voters, & the non-enrolled have added 16,063 voters. The GOP though has lost 23,977 voters. This is why Onondaga, once a reliably red county, has turned purple if not light blue. However, since the 2020 election we are seeing a new trend. Democrats have lost 2,634 voters and the GOP have lost 628 voters. However, the non-enrolled has exploded, adding 6783 voters.
Straight partisan advantage is not the only story in our county. We have four recognized parties in our state: Democratic, Republican, Conservative, and Working Families. Fusion voting allows candidates to run on multiple lines at the same time. Traditionally Democrats and Working Families join forces while the GOP and Conservatives support the other candidate. Conservatives have more voters than the GOP. This slide represents the Democratic advantage in the county by pairing these parties together and comparing the percentage to the overall county voter. As we can see since 1996 the Democrats have reversed the county lean from favoring the GOP by 9.16% in 1996 to favoring the Democrats by 9.17% currently. However, there is cause for concern for Democrats. The current percentage of 9.17% is the lowest since 2019. As the General election campaign heats up this will be a good statistic to check in on right before the November election.
Taking a look at the partisan makeup of the regions of Onondaga County we can see why this is an extremely competitive county. The City of Syracuse is the most Democratic with Democrats having a +41.92% enrollment advantage. On the other side is the southern region where the GOP has a +11.01% advantage. The eastern towns are the best region outside of Syracuse with a +10.51% for Democrats. The Western and Northern regions though are nearly deadlocked. The GOP has the slightest of edges in these regions with a +.44% edge in the North and a +.11% in the west.
We have a new entry in the top four races that we will look at to see how a political division may react. The 2023 County Clerk race replaces the 2019 County Clerk race as a close race county wide. Emily Essi won the County Clerk for Democrats by .33% and is a good indication of how our county reacts as a baseline in odd low turnout years. In 2022 Governor Kathy Hochul won Onondaga County by 7.75%, with Hochul winning the state by just 6.34% Onondaga County makes a good case for being a bellwether county for statewide offices. Anthony Brindisi failed to win a Supreme Court seat but won Onondaga County by 5.04% representing a solid result for Democrats in an odd year. Of course, President Biden’s win in 2020 represents a theoretical high for Democrats as he won the county by 20.03%.
Finally, we check in on how Democrats have done in county wide races over the last four years. These totals represent races that spanned the entirety of Onondaga County though they may and often do span beyond our county. These totals represent only the portions inside our county. We see that Democrats have been on quite a roll over the last four years. 21 of 25 county wide contests have voted for the Democratic candidate inside Onondaga County. This includes last year, 2023 where Democrats carried 4 of 6 seats. Last year also had three of the widest disparities with County Executive Ryan McMahon winning re-election by 23.61%, DA William Fitzpatrick winning his race by 22.61%, and County Comptroller Martin Masterpole winning his re-election by 30.88%. However, when looking at the family court results the Democrats have won the last five seats and now represent all 5 Onondaga County Family Court seats.
The Family Court seat this year is an added seat, and Democrats will look to continue their success. They have nominated first time candidate Christina El Bayadi will appear on the Democratic line. Perennial candidate Jason Ziegler will appear on the Republican and Conservative line. You can learn more about Christina by visiting her website https://www.electelbayadi.com/
That is, it for this edition of the #weeklywonk. Nest week we will continue to look at the political subdivisions in our county holding elections. We will investigate the suburbs of Onondaga County and dive into the seventeen towns. As always you can subscribe to dustinczarny.com to get all my content and election news updates.
Dustin M. Czarny 