Welcome back to the #weeklywonk! Each week I take a deep dive in some form of electoral and registration data. By examining this data, I hope to give a more comprehensive view of our home, Onondaga County. This week I start looking at the political subdivisions having elections this November. This week we will focus on the suburban and rural towns of Onondaga County.
As of March 12, 2025, the Towns of Onondaga County have 241,729 active registered voters. 77,787 (31%) are enrolled in the Democratic party and represent a plurality of the suburbs. The GOP follows with 74,909 (31%), the non-enrolled are third with 72,338 (30%). The remainder are Conservatives at 4,504 (2%) Working Family 891 (1%) and 10,168 voters (4% scattered among other parties. There are basically three main regions of our county. The large Suburban towns have 63% of the registered voters (199,404). The City of Syracuse has 24% of the registered voters (77,373). Just 13% of the registered voters reside in the small agrarian rural towns (41,193).
The Towns of Onondaga County have undergone the same type of change we have seen in other political subdivisions. The Democrats have gained 12,812 voters since 2009. The GOP has lost 2,900 voters over the same period. The non-enrolled had the most dramatic increase rising 19,266 voters. From 2009 to 2015 we saw stagnation by the Democrats and the GOP losing ground. The GOP stabilized from 2016 to today. The Democrats saw a big boom in the first trump era from 2016-202 but have stagnated since. The non-enrolled have risen nearly every year with dramatic increases since 2020.
For drawing comparisons, the county of Onondaga is basically three different regions. The City of Syracuse represents the center of Onondaga County and the most urban population. Its voter population reflects that with Democrats holding a +40.31% edge over the GOP which also sits in a distant 3rd to the non-enrolled. The Large Suburban towns of Camillus, Cicero, Clay, Dewitt, Geddes, Lysander, Manlius, Onondaga & Salina. These large towns (over 10k voters0 have denser areas than the rural towns but not as dense as the urban core of Syracuse. Their makeup reflects more of the average of Onondaga County with Democrats having a small +3.54% registration edge over the GOP who are just behind the non-enrolled in 3rd place. Finally, we have the rural towns of Elbridge, Fabius, Lafayette, Marcellus, Otisco, Pompey, Skaneateles, Spafford, Tully, and van Buren. These areas may have small village and hamlets with some density but are mostly comprised of agrarian tracts of land. These represent the most conservative regions of our county with the GOP holding a +10.16% enrollment edge and the Democrats are in 3rd place just behind the non-enrolled.
This is the heat map for Onondaga County by individual Town. The City of Syracuse an overwhelming Democratic region right in the middle in dark blue. The Town of Dewitt a solid Democratic town in blue right to the east of Syracuse. On either side of Dewitt, we have the light blue lean Democratic towns of Salina and Fabius. Camillus, Clay, Geddes, and Onondaga in the dark purple are borderline Democratic towns. Cicero In the light purple is a borderline GOP town. Lysander, Van Buren, Skaneateles, Marcellus, Tully, and Pompey are lean GOP towns in the pink. Lafayette and Spafford are solid GOP towns. Elbridge in the dark red is a strong GOP town. Otisco and Fabius in the dark burgundy are overwhelming GOP towns.
Just about every Town in Onondaga County has swung to the left since 2009. Dewitt & Salina were the only town in 2009 where Democrats had a slight enrollment edge, and it grew significantly since. The towns of Clay and Manlius were solid GOP towns in 2009 and now are solid Democratic enrollment edges. Camillus, Geddes, Onondaga flipped from slight GOP leaning to slight Democratic enrollment edge. Towns such as Lafayette, Lysander, Marcellus, Pompey, Skaneateles, Spafford, Tully, and Van Buren have seen their GOP registration rates shrink since 2009, though thy still stay in the GOP ledger. The only towns that have seen increase in registration rates for the GOP are Cicero, Elbridge, Fabius, & Otisco.
New to this year’s “#weeklywonk I am looking at the average age of the voters in Onondaga county. Last week we established the average age of an Onondaga County voter is 50.17 years. The towns the average age is slightly older at 51.42 years old. The City of Syracuse is much lighter with 46.34 years old. Rural agrarian towns tend to be the oldest at 52.24 years old with large suburban towns at just 51.25 years old. As we saw with the county in general, more rural areas tend to be more conservative and thus older. Urban areas tend to be more liberal and thus younger. Suburban areas, right in the middle on both age and ideology.
Finally, we can look at the comparative races for the Towns of Onondaga County as a whole. These four races represent some of the closest races that ran countywide in the last four cycles. Looking at them gives us a decent look at how a political subdivision may react to similar races in the future. The newest edition to this chart is the 2024 Family Court race. This is the only one of the four races where a Democrat won the towns, winning 50.49% but running 4.42% behind the county average (54.91%), The 2023 County Clerk race the Democrat only garnered 47.48% but just 2.66% behind the county average (50.14%). The 2022 governor race the Democrat won 49.74% and running 4.04% behind the county average (53.78%). The 2021 Supreme Court race the Democrat performed the worst with just 46.84% running 5.66% behind the county average (52.50%). In general, the Towns seem to perform 2-5% behind the county.
That is, it for this edition of the #weeklywonk. Next week we will look at the urban center of our county, the City of Syracuse. Check the different areas as we prepare for the upcoming June primary for Mayor and other offices. As always you can subscribe to dustincarny.com for all content and election news updates.
Dustin M. Czarny 