Welcome back to the #weeklywonk. This is my weekly article I publish on dustinczarny.com. In this series we follow the electoral and registration data that make up Onondaga County and New York State. I am in the middle of a 6-part series on Towns in Onondaga County that nominate Democratic candidates by designating petitions, starting in late February. Part 2 ins this week and I am investigating the Town of Manlius. This eastern town is one of the most important towns for Democratic lawmakers in the county, seen as a lynchpin for Democrats running for public office both counties wide and regionally.
On February 1, 2026, The Town of Manlius had 25,614 voters, the third largest town in Onondaga County. We can see right from the start why Manlius has its reputation as an anchor town for Democratic candidates. Democrats have a strong plurality with 9,135 voters (35=6%). The non-enrolled is second with 8,014 voters (31%). The GOP comes in third in this town with 7,044 voters (27%). 958 Voters in other parties (4%, 402 Conservatives (2%), and 61 Working Families (<1%). The 8.16% Democratic advantage is near to the Onondaga County average of +10.03%) The Town of Manlius is so large It has a whole county legislature district inside of it (OCL 10 21,219 voters 83%). OCL 12 is in the southwestern area of Manlius, including the village. This area comprises 4,395 voters, accounting for 12% of the total.
The Town of Manlius is the poster child for the transformation that Onondaga County has undergone since 2016 that I have been chronicling this year in my #weeklywonk columns. This includes the growth of active registered voters. In November of 2016 Manlius had 23,567 registered voters. On February 1, 2026, it had 25,614 voters. That is a growth of 2,047 voters since 2016. The growth of 8.69% is near what we saw in Onondaga County during that time (14.18%). The registration advances over the last few years are keeping more people registered and making it easier to register to vote and that is also contributing to the growth.
Looking at the heat map of individual Eds we really see why Manlius has become so blue. Only four eds (ED 1,9,10, 15) have slight GOP leans (+5-9% GOP). They are in the Northeast corner of the Town and represent the more rural parts of the Town. ED 32 has a borderline GOP lean (+0-4% GOP). The rest of the Eds have a statistical advantage for Democrats. ED 2, 19, 24, 30 have a borderline Democratic lean (+0-4% DEM). Eds 3, 11, 12, 16, 18, 22, 26, 27, & 29 have slight Democratic leans (+5-9% DEM). Eds 4, 8, 13, 14, 20, 25, 28, 31, & 32 have moderate Democratic leans (+10-14% DEM). Eds 6, 7, 17, 21, 23 have strong Democratic leans (+15-19% DEM). And one ED 5 in Fayetteville is one of the more concentrated Democratic areas outside the city with the highest classification of Overwhelming Democratic Lean (+20% or more DEM).
We will go more in depth into the County Legislative districts later this year however this chart gives us insight into the 2023 Republican gerrymander and how it affected Manlius. OCL 10 used to cover the southern part of Manlius, but its boundaries shifted north to regions that better support the GOP, aiming to safeguard what had been one of the county’s more competitive seats. While this seat is still lean Democrat with a +7.24% lean and non-enrolled outnumber the GOP, it is less than the southern portion of the seat expelled into OCL 12. In 2023, 12.63% of Manlius village and its outskirts that shifted to rural district twelve managed to help the GOP keep OCL 10, but this effort was unsuccessful in 2025. Now it could play a big part in flipping OCL 12 this year.
Here in this chart, we see how Manlius has flipped from a bright red GOP dominant town to the shining blue eastern suburb we know today. While there was a steady erosion of the GOP dominance, in 2016 it truly supercharged. Since 2016 Democrats gained the most with +1581 voters, followed closely by the non-enrolled +1517 voters. The GOP lost tremendous ground and had -692 voters during this time. Even in the bottom chart where we add in conservatives to the GOP the Democrats went from a -7.36% in 2009 to a +6.83% today. This is why we saw Democrats Flip the Town board in 2019, win the Supervisor seat (and hold it since) in 2021 and have an all-Democratic town board. This along with the OCL 10 flip in 202 and all contested elected offices in Manlius became Democratic since the 2016 election.
Manlius is an older town in Onondaga County despite its Democratic tendencies. The average voter is 52.61 years old, one of the oldest in the county. 71+ is the highest age group at a 21% plurality. As we have seen in our examination of age, Democrats tend to do better in the three age groups under fifty. However, in the three age groups over 50, the best for them is the oldest age group of 71+ We see that in Manlius as well, with Democrats dominating 141-50 (Dem +15.90) and 31-40 (DEM 18.46%). While they also have an advantage in 18-30 (DEM +14.20%), the non-enrolled outnumbers both Democrats and GOP there. The GOP’s strongest age group is 51-60, where they hold a +0.85% advantage. Among individuals aged 61 to 70, Democrats hold a narrow advantage of just 0.14%. However, in the 71+ age group, Democrats are ahead by +3.39%.
Finally, we look at the comparative races in Manlius. The seven comparative races I am using this year is Congress in 2024 & 2022, President in 2024, Governor in 2022, County Clerk in 2023, and the 2021 Supreme Court. In addition, we had a Town Supervisor one on one competitive race from 2025, Town Supervisor, that we can look at. In odd years Manlius tends to have a +5-7% edge, Gubernatorial years +15-20%, and Presidential years +25%/ Taking the seven comparative races and averaging it Manlius has a +16.55% average. This is nearly double the Onondaga County rate of +8.73%. Manlius used to be the bell weather for the county, but no more. It is solidly to the left of Onondaga County in both odd and even year races.
That is, it for this edition of the #weeklywonk. Next week I will continue my series on towns that nominate Democratic candidates by petition. I will focus on the southwestern town of Marcellus that on its face seems like a GOP town but has exhibited strong Democratic tendencies of late. In fact, a town council race this year will determine the partisan makeup of the town board. As always you can subscribe to get email notifications of all content and election news updates.
Dustin M. Czarny 