Welcome back to the #weeklywonk. This is my weekly data article that I host on dustinczarny.com. Each week I dive into the electoral and registration data that affect races in Onondaga County and New York State. I am at the end of my 6-part series looking at towns who nominate Democratic candidates by petitions that started last Tuesday. This week is part 6 of this series investigating the Town of Spafford. At first look it is a small rural town that should lean Republican. In practice it is one of Onondaga County’s most evenly contested towns.
The town of Spafford is one of the smaller towns in our county with just 1,346 voters. There are 370 Democrats with just 27%. The Republicans hold the plurality with 577 voters (43%). The non-enrolled in this town is in third place with just 325 voters (24%). The Other (49, 4%), Conservative (21, 2%), and Working Families (4. Zero percent) round out the population. Spafford is so small it only has two election districts in it. Election district one in the northwest portion of the town is the largest with 706 voters (52%). Election district two is in the southeastern portion of the town and has 640 voters (48%).
Not only is Spafford one of the smallest towns, but it is also growing at a rate slower than the rest of Onondaga County. Like most areas of Onondaga County and indeed New York state. The growth came about after 2019 with easier voter registration laws thanks to the Democratic takeover of New York State government. Looking back ten years, the Town of Spafford added sixty-seven voters, a growth of 5.24%. This is slightly bellowing the growth rate for Onondaga County as a whole (+7.63%) during the same period.
The Town of Spafford’s small stature makes it hard to delve deep into its different areas. However, even though there are only two election districts, we do see diversity. The. northern more populous election district is only a lean Republican district. The GOP has a +9.92% enrollment advantage here. The southern less populous district is one of the more GOP dominant eds in the county. The Republicans have a +21.41% enrollment advantage here. Despite the GOP dominance, in neither election district do the Democrats drop below second place. That is an important distinction in this rural town.
Spafford is a pretty static town. Despite this Democrats are making gains in this town. Since 2016 the Democrats have gained thirty-seven voters. The republicans have lost nine voters during that time. The non-enrolled have gained fifty-eight voters. In small towns the Conservative population can have a larger effect in tilting the town to the right. Even here Democrats and the left are making gains. In 2009 The combined GOP and Conservative dominance of Spafford gave a Democratic disadvantage of -23.79%. It has shrunk to -16.64% this year. Another sign that Spafford is not as republican as you might suspect.
Spafford has another distinction besides being the most competitive town. It is also the oldest. The average voter in Spafford is 54.93 years old. That is much older than the Onondaga County average of 50.87 years old. In fact, it is the oldest town in Onondaga county and as you might expect the 91+ age group is the largest. We do find diversity in the partisan makeup of the age groups. Like always the Democrats do better under fifty age groups and the GOP does better in the older groups. Still every group the GOP leads, even in the 18-30 group. And we do not see the dominance of the non-enrolled in the youngest groups like we have with other towns.
The most surprising facet of Spafford is its ability to elect Democrats despite the seeming registration dominance of the Republican party. In the past 15 years, the town of Spafford elected Democrats, sometimes gaining control of both the town board and Supervisor positions. In 2025 the pendulum again swung back to the Democrats winning the Supervisor race by 10.83% and gaining control of the board. When we look at the six comparative races, we see that Spafford lives up to the very epitome of a battleground town. Democrats won the 2024 Presidential and Congressional race as well as the 2022 congressional race. Republicans won the 22021 Supreme Court and 2023 County Clerk along 2022 Governor’s race. All were within five points except the 2023 County Clerk. The GOP averages a 3.37% margin of victory wh9ich is about a ten-point swing form the county average of Democrats +8.73%.
That is, it for this edition of the #weeklywonk. This ends my 6-part series on towns who petition for Democratic candidates in 2026. Next, I start another series, this time on the New York State races. This 9-part se. s will examine the New York, fifth judicial, Congressional, and six state legislature races in our county. Next week we begin our journey by looking at New York State as a whole. As always you can subscribe to dustinczarny.com for all content and election news updates.
Dustin M. Czarny 