Welcome back to the #weeklywonk. This is my weekly article on dustinczarny.com about statistics and data. Each week I dive into the electoral and registration data on a political subdivision or election relevant to 2026. Currently I am in the middle of diving into the New York Stat races appearing on the Onondaga County Ballot this year. This week I am diving into part two of this nine-part series, the NYS Supreme Court race in the fifth judicial district.
We select our Supreme court seats in New York (which is the lowest court level) in judicial districts. These massive districts are the largest political subdivisions in New York State. The 5th Judicial district spans six counties, Herkimer, Jeffereson, Lewis, Oneida, Onondaga, and Oswego County. According to the NYS Board of Elections February 20, 2026, enrollment reports it has 642,505 voters. Republicans own the plurality of it with 226,484 voters (35%). Democrats come in second with 197,361 voters (31%), and non-enrolled third with 176,456 voters (28%). Other (25,023 4%), Conservative (11,633 2%) and Working families (2,9721 <1%) round out the enrolled active voters. Onondaga County is the largest plurality of the district with 48% (3098,109) of the voters. Oneida is the second most populace county with 215 (136,887) of the voters. Oswego (75,179, 12%), Jefferson (62,247%), Herkimer (42,452 6%), and Lewis (17,631 3%) make up the rest of the district.
The 5th Judicial district is behaving the way New York State has in terms of adding voters. Some growth started with the 2016 election and online voter registration with the DMV. The largest growth of voters has happened since 2020 thanks to the reforms put in place by the Democratic controlled legislature to make it easier to register to vote and stay registered to vote in New York. Since 206 the 5th Judicial district has added 45,506 voters which is a growth rate of 7.62%. This nearly mirrors the growth rate of Onondaga County which is the largest county and has an enormous impact on the district.
Here in this heat map of the 5th Judicial district, we really see how this district becomes so balanced. Onondaga County acts like a blue anchor on the district in the moderate Democrat lean category of 10-14%. Oneida has a slight GOP lean of 5-9% Jefferson is a strong GOP lean in the 15-19% category. Herkimer, Lewis, and Oswego are in the Overwhelming GOP lean category of +20%.
In the county break down we truly see how Onondaga County balances the district and gives Democrats a fighting chance All four of the small GOP counties we see the signs of GOP dominance with non-enrolled outnumbering the Democrats and overwhelming GOP enrollment advantage (Lewis +36.25% GOP, Herkimer +25.20$+% GOP, Oswego +24.38% GOP, Jefferson +19.62% GOP). Oneida represents a more typical GOP county with a 9.10% GOP advantage and Democrats in second. Onondaga is a strong blue county with a +10.05% DEM advantage and non-enrolled outnumbering the GOP.
When we look at the partisan trends of the 5th Judicial district we see a unique trend. Up until 2015 Democrats were closing the gap with the GOP, mostly through the GOP losing voters more than Democrats gaining. However, once Trump entered the political lexicon in 2016, we saw republicans, led by the 5 GOP counties, had a resurgence over the last ten years as Democrats have remained stagnate. Democrats have lost 670 voters over the last ten years as while the GOP has added 12,382 voters. However, the non-enrolled is still the highest grossing by far adding 39,942 voters. When looking at the effect of conservative and WFP voters we really see the closest this district came to ideological balance was 2015 when the right (republicans and Conservatives) had a just a +2.90% In fact 2025 was the highest ideological advantage for the right with +6.11% but it also corresponds to the largest defeat when Democrats won 3 of 4 Supreme Court seats.
We can ee that despite the ideological balance of the district shifting to the right, in federal years Democrats have performed well overcoming their disadvantage. In fact, they have one plurality in all four of our comparative races. In the 2024 Senate race the district performed the best for Democrats at +2.03% advantage. In the other three races they were much closer. The 2024 Presidential Race Democrats a +.62% advantage. The 2022 Senate Democrats had a +.29% advantage. The 2022 Governors’ race Democrats had +.61% advantage. This bodes well for Democrats going into 2026 which has a one Supreme Court seat on the ballot. Delegates will choose candidates during the August conventions.
That is, it is for this week’s edition of the #weeklywonk. Next week I dive into what has been the most popular race in federal elections, New York’s 22nd congressional district. After multiple close elections, it flipped in 2024 for the first time since 2014. Will Democrats be able to repeat in this district for the first time since 1980? Tune in and find out. As always you can subscribe to dustinczarny.com for all content and election news updates.
Dustin M. Czarny 