Welcome back to #wonkywednesday. Each week I take a deep dive into the electoral and registration data that makes up our home in Onondaga County. This week I decided to start investigating the four Assembly districts in Onondaga County. I am starting with Assembly district #129 currently represented by Bill Magnarelli.
The 129th Assembly district starts in the city of Syracuse and works its way out west. In the City of Syracuse, it takes up all of the north portions of Syracuse including Eastwood, Sedgewick, and the North side including little Italy. It then snakes around the west end of Syracuse including the inner harbor and top hill and into Strathmore. It then goes south around the southern. of Syracuse’s valley section then it finally goes north into the university section of Syracuse. It also has the entire towns of Geddes and Van Buren in it. This Assembly district remained virtually unchanged in redistricting however it is possible for 2024 it may come under a different line due to ongoing court actions.
The City of Syracuse dominates the registered voter population with 68% of the registered voters. Geddes has 18% and Van Buren 14%. The heavy blue tilt of Syracuse also colors the voter population of the district. Democrats make up 45% of the district more than doubling the GOP at 21%. The Non-enrolled are actually in second place making up 29% of the population.
The City of Syracuse enrollment disparity dominates the district. Geddes and Van Buren are pretty much even towns with Geddes being slightly blue and Van Buren slightly red. However, the City of Syracuse extreme partisan divide not only gives Democrats the edge it also allows the non-enrolled to surge into second place.
This trend of Democratic dominance in this Assembly district is playing out over time. Since 2012 the Democrats have gained 1716 enrollment. The GOP in the meantime has lost 2476 enrolled members. In 2012 the Non-enrolled and GOP were virtually even but since then the non-enrolled grew by 2021 voters, outpacing even the Democrats.
This enrollment advantage has played out in performance as well. President Biden won this district by 34.25 points. Despite losing her race in 2020, Dana Balter won this district by 13.75 point. In the last gubernatorial year Governor Cuomo won this district by 21.54 points. Bill Magnarelli is the Assembly person for this district and has turned in back-to-back dominant performances in 2018 and 2020. His wins of +43.05 in 2020 and +52.62 in 2018 outperformed the top of the ticket in both years.
Perhaps because of the past performance there is no major opposition to Assemblyman Magnarelli in this year’s ballot. He will appear on only the Democratic line with no listed opponent. You can find Assemblyman Magnarelli on his official Assembly page: https://nyassembly.gov/mem/William-B-Magnarelli, on his campaign website http://www.magnarelli.com/, on facebook https://www.facebook.com/william.magnarelli and on twitter https://twitter.com/BillMagnarelli.