Welcome to the #weeklywonk. This is my weekly blog about statistics, registration data, and election law on my website, dustinczarny.com. This is a rebrand of my #wonkywednesday and #sundaythoughts columns I have been writing since 2020. In merging these two side projects together I am hoping to be a little more regular in my production. I have also not tied myself to a particular day to release these columns, hoping to release them weekly on the weekend. This way I can have more time to gather the statistics and resources that I want to devote to these articles. This week I return to our General Election registration previews with NY Assembly District 127.
#Ad127 has been represented by Assemblyman Al Stirpe since 2008 with the exception of 2010-2012 when he lost his re-election in the red wave of 2010. The core of this district remains the towns Clay, Cicero, and Manlius. These are the three largest town in Onondaga County and have been in this district during since at least 2002. They remained during in the new district passed by the Assembly this last year. The towns of Pompey, Tully and Fabius were in the district during the last ten years but are now out. Now in the district this assembly seat goes east into Madison County picking up the Town of Cazenovia. The Assembly district may be altered yet again next cycle as the current Assembly lines are under judicial review.
The new #AD127 has 93,540 voters in it. It is considered lean Democratic district with Democrats making up the plurality of the district at 34%. The GOP is in second at 31%. The Non-enrolled is a close third at 28%. Regionally this district is dominated by the Town of Clay at 44% of the registered voter population. Manlius is at 27% and Cicero at 24%. The town of Cazenovia is just 5%.
For years, this district was seen as a lean red district. The changing nature of the suburbs during the Trump presidency. As the suburbs got bluer so did the district. Between 2012 & 212 the old district saw Democrats gained 5088 voters, the GOP only gained 389 voters, and the non-enrolled gained the most at 5054. The 2022 figures represent the new #AD127. The drop off of voters reflected the overpopulation that happened in the district during the last ten years. Clay, Cicero, and Manlius were some of the fastest growing areas of our country. The result of the redistricting caused Democrats to lose 1,018 voters, GOP to lose 1772 voters, and non-enrolled to lose 1338 voters. This made the district slightly bluer than before.
The Town of Clay dominates the district both in region and its bluer nature has fueled the trend toward Democrat enrollment. We will look at the town of Manlius later this year, but it is not only the second highest Town in population it is now one of the bluer towns and rapidly changing. Cicero remains the only populous town with out a blue enrollment edge with the GOP still having a significant plurality in the town. While the Town of Cazenovia is slightly GOP, the addition of this town with the exclusion of Pompey and Tully does make it a bluer town as it is less populous and less GOP than them.
We have not had elections in the new district so our comparative results will be on the old district. Since there were only slight changes it is reasonable to expect the new district will react similar. It is definitely a swing district reacting race by race. Biden won the old district by 10.28 points in 2020 while GOP Congressman John Kakto won it by 11.76 points. IN the Governor’s race of 2018 GOP candidate Mark Molinaro won the district by 4.66 points. Al Stirpe has easily won his last two reelections in 2018 by 16.03 points and 2020 by 9.13 points. While we can’t tell how the new district will react race by race, NY Redistricting and you did do an analysis on the Presidential performance. It shows that Biden won the old district by 10.6% and the new district by 12.0%. So, this is a slight swing of 1.4% and it is hard to tell if the district will swing that way in down ballot races.
Next week I will continue my review of the races on the ballot for the General election. Next up I look at the 126th Assembly District the only GOP held state district in Onondaga County. I plan to look at each race on the General election ballot leading up to November. Remember to subscribe to dustinczarny.com to get all election news and content updates.
Dustin M. Czarny 