Welcome to the #weeklywonk. This is my weekly blog about statistics, registration data, and election law on my website, dustinczarny.com. This is a rebrand of my #wonkywednesday and #sundaythoughts columns I have been writing since 2020. In merging these two side projects together I am hoping to be a little more regular in my production. I have also not tied myself to a particular day to release these columns, hoping to release them weekly on the weekend. This way I can have more time to gather the statistics and resources that I want to devote to these articles. This week I return to our General Election registration previews with NY Assembly District 126.
#AD126 spans two counties, Onondaga Can Cayuga. It starts in the southwest corner of Onondaga and contains all of the southern agrarian towns of Pompey, Lafayette, Fabius, Tully, Otisco, Spafford, & Marcellus. It also has the Town of Camillus as well as the western border towns of Lysander, Elbridge & Skaneateles. It the dives into the middle portion of Cayuga with the towns of Cato, Conquest, Mentz, Brutus, Throop, Sennett, and Owasco. Finally, it has the entire City of Auburn inside of it as well.
#AD126 is a republican leaning district. The GOP holds the plurality with 36% of the 94,979 registered voters. Democrats are a solid second with 32% of the district. The Non-enrolled, while significant, is third at 27%. The enrollment indicates a GOP favored district but one that is competitive. Onondaga County dominates the district with 70% of the Registered voters while Cayuga has just 30%.
This district has had a growing Democratic registration in it for the last ten years. From 2012 to 2021 Democrats grew by 1169 voters while the GOP grew by just 185, The Non-enrolled has been the major growth in the district growing by 3,557 voters. Redistricting though made this district substantially better for Democrats. Since 2021 Democrats added 1782 voters, nearly double the growth of the previous ten. The GOP only grew 382. Non-Enrolled grew the most again with 2,030 voters. The old #ad126 was underpopulated and needed to add population during redistricting and it is clear the added portions were democratic leaning.
The Onondaga portion of the district is what gives the district it is GOP lean. Republicans hold a 38% plurality of the Onondaga County Portion of the district with Democrats having 30% and non-enrolled 28%. The best town for Democrats in Onondaga Is Camillus which has a small plurality of Democrats. Lysander is the best GOP stronghold with a large plurality. These are also the two largest towns in Onondaga. The rest of the towns all have GOP leans with Democrats often in third place in these smaller agrarian towns.
The Cayuga portion of #AD126 is actually Democratic leaning. Democrats have a plurality of 36%. Republicans are second with 24%. Non-enrolled or Blanks are just 24%. The City of Auburn dominates the Cayuga portion of the district in size and ideology. The three border towns of Owasco, Sennett, and Throop are slightly GOP leaning but more purple than the other towns of the district. All of the other more agrarian towns the GOP is leading, and Democrats are in a distant second or even third place.
I have abandoned my comparative races for this analysis because of two varied reasons. The first is this district changed quite a bit during redistricting so past races inside the district would not be a good comparison. Also, the fact this district crosses county lines makes it hard for me to get the data on past races as in districts like this I rely on State Board of Election data that is not broken down by town. However, to take a look at how this district might perform I rely on the NY redistricting and You website from CUNY. They estimate that this district went from a Trump +2.6 districts to a Biden +24 district. That is a 5-point swing in the Democrat advantage. In 2020 John Lemondes (R), the current rep of the district won this race by 13.6 points. A 5-point swing would put this race in striking distance for a Democratic candidate riding a post-Dobbs wave and a registration surge.
Next week I will continue my review of the races on the ballot for the General election. Next up I look at the 126th Assembly District the only GOP held state district in Onondaga County. I plan to look at each race on the new #NY22 Congressional seat to preview the hottest race in the country this fall, right in our backyards. Remember to subscribe to dustinczarny.com to get all election news and content updates.
Dustin M. Czarny 