The Weekly Won: The town of Manlius

Welcome to the #WeeklyWonk. This is my weekly blog about statistics, registration data, and election law on my website, dustinczarny.com. This is a rebrand of my #wonkywednesday and #sundaythoughts columns I have been writing since 2020. In merging these two side projects together I am hoping to be a little more regular in my production. I have also not tied myself to a particular day to release these columns, hoping to release them weekly on the weekend. This way I can have more time to gather the statistics and resources that I want to devote to these articles. This week I examine The Town of Manlius.

The Town of Manlius has one race up this year, a single Town board member seat. Normally towns elect their local offices on odd numbered years. However last year then Town Board member John Deer won an election to become Town Supervisor. This meant he had to vacate his seat on the Town Board. That created a to-fill vacancy on the Manlius Town Board. The election this year will be to fill John Deer’s remaining term which ends in 2023. This means whoever wins will have to run for re-election in 2023. The Town Board nominated former Town Board member Alyssa Italiano to serve this year and she is running for election to fill the vacancy.

Manlius is an up-and-coming Democratic Town. Other than Dewitt and Syracuse it is the third most Democratic town in Onondaga County. The Town Supervisor, all six Town Board Members, and one of the 2 Town Justices are all represented by Democrats. Manlius has an ascendent Democratic Plurality. Democrats account for the plurality of voters at 36%. The GOP is barely in second place with 29% of the vote followed by the non-enrolled also at 29%. For the purpose of regional breakdowns, I will look at the county legislature districts that make up the town of Manlius is carved up into three legislative districts. Eighty-eight percent of the voters reside in OCL 10 which includes the three villages of Minoa, Fayetteville, and Manlius. Eight percent is in OCL 3 which is the Northern most portion of Manlius. Four percent in OCL 12 which southernmost portion of Manlius.

The rise of the Democratic plurality in Manlius can once again be attributed as a reaction to the Trump election in 2016. Since 2009 Democrats have gained 1,900 voters while the GOP has lost 1,362. The non-enrolled have gained 1365 voters and are now four voters behind the GOP. After seeing a major rise during 2016, Democrats overtook the GOP in 2017, which happened to be the first year Democrats won a Town Board office. Since then, Democrats have won every competitive town wide seat in both 2019 & 2021.

Despite being broken up into three legislative districts, proportionally they are similar. The main difference is size with OCL 10 dwarfing both OCL 3 & 12. The main district, OCL 10, has a large Democratic lead over the GOP. OCL 3, the northern portion, is more of n even split though there are more non-enrolled than GOP in it. OCL 12 may be the most “conservative” of the three districts with GOP close to the Dems though also the non-enrolled outnumbers the GOP there as well.

In the top five comparative races we see solid Democratic performance to go along with the registration. All of the races the Democrat won but they are often closer when you look at the local races. President Biden dominated Manlius winning by 29.38% points in 2020. Dana Balter did win Manlius in 2018 (+5.78%) and 2020 (+0.44%). Her underperformance in 2020 could be chalked up to the 4.14% of votes on the WFP line for Steve Williams. Governor Cuomo won Manlius by +5.94% which is a solid performance for him upstate. There best local race to compare to was last year’s Supervisor race which was an open seat with a one-to-one matchup similar to the Town Board race this year. John Deer won the Manlius supervisor race by +3.81 points in 2021.

Alyssa Italiano is running on the Democratic and Working Families line for Town Board in 2022. She is running against David Barnwell who will appear on the GOP and Conservative line.

That does it for this bonus edition of the #WeeklyWonk. Next week I will attempt to do two #weeklyWonks again. The Towns of Onondaga (w2ednesday), and Town of Pompey (Sunday) are on deck for the last investigations before the General Election. Check back each week & subscribe to dustinczarny.com for all content and elections updates.

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