Welcome back to the #WeeklyWonk. Each weekend I release an article on a subject relating to elections in Onondaga County and New York State. Often these articles will have detailed stats to consume but sometimes they will be a recap of a prominent issue or on relevant election law. I am turning my eye to the 2023 elections. This week I take a break from looking at the political subdivisions and focus on a work item from the Onondaga County Board of elections. Today I look at the Village of Fayetteville who is having a special election this March.
The Village of Fayetteville is located inside the Town of Manlius. Villages The Village Board and Mayor have decided to hold their elections in the traditional March election period. Normally their elections are on even years, just having a village elections last year. That is also the first year the Onondaga County Board of Elections ran this village election, after a problematic ballot in 2020. There is a special election this year to fill a vacancy of a village board member this year. The Town Of Manlius Democratic Committee started running candidates on the Democratic line in 2022 and thus it is a great subject for my #WeeklyWonk series.
The Village of Fayetteville has morphed into a strong Democratic plurality community. Democrats have 41% of the electorate. The Non-enrolled actually now outnumbers the GOP at 27% to the GOP 26%. This type of enrollment advantage is probably why we see the Town of Manlius Democratic committee running candidates on partisan lines while the Town of Manlius GOP committee has decided not to. This changes from village to village and we see the opposite in GOP run villages like Elbridge and Liverpool. The Village of Fayetteville is made up of five different Election Districts, Manlius 5,7,8,17, & 21. The largest voter population is in 17 (23%) and smallest in 5 (17%), with 7 (19%), 8 (20%), and 21 (21%) lumped in the middle.
In 2012 the Onondaga County Board of Elections started to place the villages inside election district boundaries after the redistricting year. This allows us to run their elections if they wish as well as make it easier to track voter registration over time. The Village of Fayetteville has experiences the changes we have seen in the Town of Manlius overall, a definitive switch to Democratic enrollment. Democrats have gained 308 voters and the GOP has lost 177 voters since 2012. The non-enrolled voter has gained 127 voters.
When we look at the election district partisan breakdown, we see that Democrats in enrollment dominate each ED as well. Manlius 17 has the largest Democratic enrollment as well as partisan advantage to GOP. Manlius 5 and Manlius 21 the non-enrolled outnumber the GOP as well. But even in Manlius 7 & 8 have large Democratic enrollments now.
The Village of Fayetteville voter enrollment has grown moderately since 2012 gaining 258 voters or a growth of 7.66%. The 3 most Democratically leaning eds, Manlius 5, 17, & 21 also happen to be the ones showing the lions share of the growth since 2012. Manlius 7 & 8, the more traditionally aligned eds, and Eds that were once GOP, are some of the smaller growths in voter population for the village.
The Democratic growth in each ED is outpacing the voter growth in four of the 5 eds. Manlius 21 was already fairly Democratic in 2012 so it the partisan advantage got better, but not dramatically so (Dem +7.59% gain). Manlius 7 (Dem +16.65% gain), 8 (Dem +15.89% gain), & 17 (Dem +21.09% gain) were GOP districts in 2012 and flipped to Democratic districts in 2023 showing the most growth. Manlius 5 was a slightly Democratic district in 2012 and have become a solidly Democratic district now (Dem +14.41% gain).
When it comes to comparative races the village of Fayetteville performs as a solidly Democratic subdivision. In all 4 of the comparative races the Village of Fayetteville outperforms Onondaga County as a whole. In 2022 for Governor it gave Kathy Hochuli Democrat 64.30% of the vote, +10.52 points from her countywide win. In 2021 it voted for Anthony Brindisi Democrat for Supreme Court garnered 60.30%, +7.80 points from his countywide win (though he lost in other counties). In 2020 Joe Biden won Fayetteville with 66.96% of the vote, +8.08% from his countywide win. And in 2019 Mark Kolinski won Fayetteville with 55.03% of the vote, improving on his countywide loss by +7.30%. The last village election is not included because it was a vote for two village board election with Democrats running 2candidates and a 3rd candidate running on a non-partisan line so it doesn’t compare well However those results were Democrat & Fayetteville Neighbors party Mark Matt 583 votes, Balance Party Mike Small 518 votes, Democrat and Fayetteville Neighbors Party Casey Cleary 471 votes. In the 2023 March Village elections there is only one candidate for the Town village Board petition, Democrat Jane Rice is running on the Democratic line and another independent Fayetteville Voices line.
That is, it for this week’s edition of the Weekly Wonk. Next week I will focus on the Village of Manlius who is also having an election in March. For my #weeklyWonks this year I will be adding in villages that have partisan elections in them as well as my individual look at the towns, county legislature districts. So, stay tuned. Subscribe to dustinczarny.com for all election news and content updates.
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