Welcome back to the #WeeklyWonk. Each weekend I release an article on a subject relating to elections in Onondaga County and New York State. Often these articles will have detailed stats to consume but sometimes they will be a recap of a prominent issue or on relevant election law. I am turning my eye to the 2023 elections. This week I take a break from looking at the political subdivisions and focus on a work item from the Onondaga County Board of elections. Today I look at the Village of Manlius who is having a special election this March.
The Village of Manlius is located inside the Town of Manlius. The Village Board and Mayor have decided to hold their elections in the traditional March election period. The Onondaga County Board of Elections have been running the Village of Manlius elections for over ten years. It is only recently The Town of Manlius Democratic Committee started running candidates on the Democratic line in 2022 when a Manlius Village Judge to fill vacancy and is doing so again this year for the regularly scheduled village board election. Thus, it is a great subject for my #WeeklyWonk series.
The Village of Manlius has 3,361 voters. The Village of Manlius partisan breakdown shows a strong Democratic lean. Democrats have 1284 (38%) of the active registered voters, 937 (28%) are registered as non-enrolled, and in third place 900 (27%) are registered GOP. With non-enrolled outnumbering GOP and Democrats well in first place it is typical of the other strong Democratic communities in our county. The village is split into four different election districts, Manlius 14, 20, 23, & 27. They are remarkably similar in size, with the largest being Manlius 23 at 911 voters (27%) and the smallest being Manlius 14 at 786 (23%).
The Village of Manlius, like the other suburban communities, have undergone a transformation. Once a dominant GOP village, the community was losing GOP voters on a steady pace until 2016 when the Trump election saw large party changes in suburban communities. Since 2012 Democrats have gained 276 voters while the GOP have lost 234 voters. Democrats had the most gains but the non-enrolled have seen a gain of 184 voters, and in 2022 they overtook the GOP as second in the village.
When we look at the four election districts in Manlius, we see a village that has strong Democratic communities in each corner. Democrats have strong pluralities in each of the four election districts. The strongest registration advantage is in Manlius 14 where the GOP is well in third place. Manlius 20 & 23 have strong Democratic pluralities however the GOP are ahead, if barely, the non-enrolled voters. Manlius 2 is the most even district with the smallest Gap between the GOP and Democrat but interestingly the non-enrolled have overtaken the GOP here as well.
When we look at voter growth the village of Manlius has gained 234 voters since 2012. The lions share of that growth has been in Election District 14 gaining 105 voters despite it being the smallest Election District. This is followed by 55 voters in Manlius 23 which is the largest ED. Manlius 27 has gained 44 voters. Showing the least growth is Manlius 20 with only 30 votes.
In terms of Democratic growth, we see a correlation with overall voter growth. The ED that had the largest growth since 2012 also saw the most Democratic growth. ED 14 has seen a growth of 19.61% in the Democratic plurality in the ED. ED 20, which had the least overall growth, has seen only a 3.33% increase in the Democratic plurality. Manlius 27 and Manlius 23 had similar Democratic growth and saw similar Democratic growth. Manlius 27 saw a growth of 11.85% and Manlius 23 saw a growth of 9.78%.
When we look at the comparative races, we see a village that solidly votes Democratic in November, but more evenly split when a March village election happens. In the 2022 Governor’s Race the village of Manlius voted for Governor Hochul by 63.09%, 9.31% more than the rest of Onondaga County. In 2021 the Village of Manlius voted for Democrat Ant%, 6.02% more than Onondaga County as a whole. Despite losing Onondaga County, Mark Kolinski carried the Village of Manlius with 51.65% in the 2019 County Clerk race, +3.92% ahead of the countywide results. The race for Village justice in March last year did not go the Democrats way with only 44.13% of the village voting for the Democratic candidate. The GOP does not run candidates on their party line preferring to run on independent nomination lines and they won the 2022 Village justice race with over 55% of the vote.
That is, it for my look at the March village elections in 2023. Only the villages of Fayetteville and Manlius have Democrats running in this year’s March elections. There are also village elections in Baldwinsville, Fabius, Jordan, and Skaneateles. Those elections are run by the village clerk and the Democrats aren’t running candidates on their party line, so I am not analyzing them this year. Next week I start to focus on the Towns of Onondaga County. I will be starting with the towns that the Democrats are running candidates using designating petitions instead of caucus, Lysander, Manlius, Salina, and Spafford. Next week we look at Lysander where Democrats have had recent success despite a heavy GOP enrollment. Remember to subscribe to dustinczarny.com for all election news and content updates.
Dustin M. Czarny 