Welcome back to #WeeklyWonk. Each weekend I publish an article on a subject relating to elections in Onondaga County and New York State. Often these articles will have detailed stats to consume but sometimes they will be a recap of a prominent issue or on relevant election law. I am turning my eye to the 2023 elections. Today I look at the Town of Cicero, the largest GOP town in Onondaga County, and one of the more stable communities in terms of partisan registration over the last ten years.
The Town of Cicero sits in the most Northeastern portion of our County. It is a large sized suburban town with 22,449 voters, the third highest town in Onondaga County. It is considered a suburban town but doesn’t share a border with Syracuse nestled between Clay, Manlius and Salina. The Town of Cicero is considered a solid GOP town, the largest political subdivision in Onondaga County with a significant GOP enrollment advantage. The makeup of Cicero is 30% Democrat (6745 Voters), 34% GOP (7547 Voters), and 29% non-Enrolled (6444 voters). This year I am breaking down the Towns into as equal as possible regions. Northern Cicero (eds 4,9,10,11, & 21) has 4660 voters (21%). Central Cicero (Eds 18, 19, 23, 25, 26) has 4354 voters (19%). Eastern Cicero (eds 2, 7, 8, 13, 16, & 20) has 5328 voters (24%). Southern Cicero (Eds 3, 5, 6, 12, & 14) has 4003 voters (18%). Western Cicero (eds 1, 15, 17, 22, 24) has 4104 voters (18%).
In a new feature I am bringing to the #weeklywonk this year I am doing a heat map for each political subdivision. I will be looking at the current partisan makeup of each individual ED and heat mapping its partisan lean based on the advantage for the Democrats and GOP. We see a wide variety of partisan leans in these eds. Ed 10 is the most GOP ed with an overwhelming GOP lean (-17.34%). EDS 7,8,16, & 21 have strong GOP (-10-15%). Eds 1, 2, 11, & 20 have a moderate GOP (- 5-10%). Eds 4, 9, 12, 15, 23, 24, 25, & 26 have slight GOP leans (-0-5%). Eds 3, 5, 17, 18, 19, & 22, have slight Democratic advantages between 0-5%. Ed 14 has a moderate Democratic advantage (+5.18%) and ED 6 has a strong Democratic advantage (+13.73%). Cicero’s largest geographic ed 13 has an even number of Democrats and GOP (354). In general, Democrats seem to be clustered into the southwestern corner near and around the village of North Syracuse where The GOP have the advantage in the eds bordering Oswego County and Oneida lake.
Since 2009 The Town of Cicero, unlike other communities in In Onondaga County, has not seen a change in partisan leanings. It has remained a stalwart Republican town. The Democrats have gained 654 voters since 2009. The GOP grew by only a slightly larger amount 667 voters. The Non-enrolled has been see largest gains by far with 1586 more voters. Unlike other communities that saw massive Democratic gains in the Trump years of 2016-2020 the Town of Cicero saw equal gains on both parties during those years. It seems that voters in Cicero reaction to the Trump years from both parties were to shed their party enrollment instead.
The regions in Cicero have a wide disparity. The Southern region including a portion of the village of North Syracuse is the most Democratic friendly. The Western region of Cicero that shares a border with Clay shows a small GOP advantage. The densely packed Center region with some of the more developed housing units also has a slight GOP lean. The GOP gains its advantage in domination of the Northern Bridgeport area and the Eastern portion of Cicero that is less densely packed. There they dominate and can dominate the entire town.
Looking at the growth of voters since the last redistricting cycle we compare it with date from right before redistricting of 2012. The Town of Cicero grew by 3411 active voters since 2011. The northern Bridgeport region saw the most growth with a gain of 973 voters. In close second, we saw the Center region with a nearly equal gain of 931 voters. The Eastern portion of Cicero had moderate growth of 660 voters. The western district (+458) and southern region (+389) voters saw the least gain. With Micron coming to neighboring Clay all these regions are likely choices for the influx of voters and it will be interesting to see the growths come next redistricting cycle.
The Town of Cicero is one of the more stable towns in Onondaga County in terms of partisan advantage. Since 2011 the GOP has only grown its advantage in Cicero by .02%. The Northern region has had the most change with a 2,24% shift towards the Democrats as its voter enrollment grew, but that is a relatively small shift. The Eastern region has seen the most GOP shift with 1.47% towards the GOP, again a very small shift. The Center region (+.31%) and southern regions (+.61%) saw incredibly small shifts towards the Democrats. The western region also saw a small sift (-.47%) toward the GOP. This all underlines the stability of the Cicero community in terms of partisan leans, but the wildcard here is the growing non-enrolled community that isn’t reflected in these partisan difference stats.
When we look at the comparative races, we see a solidly GOP town that votes significantly to the right of Onondaga County as a whole. In 2022 the Town of Cicero only voted for Governor Hochul’s by 41.96%, 11.82% worse than her win in Onondaga County rate of 53.78%. In 2021 the Town of Camillus only voted for Anthony Brindisis for Supreme Court by 39.45%, 13.05% worse than the county result rate of 52.50%. In 2020 Cicero was one of the few communities that didn’t vote for President Biden only giving him 46.59%, 12.29% points behind his Onondaga County win of 58.88%. In 2019 Cicero voted for Democrat Mark Kolinski for County clerk by only 37.50% losing 10.23% of his Onondaga County rate of 47.73%. The last head-to-head town office where Democrats contested was Supervisor in 2021 where Democrats lost by almost 25%. Even though non-enrolled voters have grown, the voting patterns above indicate they are more conservative than non-enrolled voters in other communities.
In 2023 the Cicero Town Democrats will caucus to find candidates for Supervisor, 2 Town Board members, and Highway superintendent. The Town of Cicero has already caucused but they are looking to fill some vacancies for most positions by July 31, 2023. If you are interested in running for any of these offices or want to help the Cicero Democrats contact their chairperson Rob Santucci at Rsantucc@twcny.rr.com
That is, it for this week’s edition of the #WeeklyWonk. Next week I will dive into the Town of Clay, the largest town in Onondaga County. As always go to dustinczarny.com and subscribe to get all your content and election news updates. I run that website, along with these series of articles, as part of my voter education. I never take ad money or charge subscriptions paying for the site with my own personal funds. Subscribe here.
Dustin M. Czarny 