Welcome back to the #WeeklyWonk. Each weekend I release an article on a subject relating to elections in Onondaga County and New York State. Often these articles will have detailed stats to consume but sometimes they will be a recap of a prominent issue or on relevant election law. However, for the next few weeks I will be looking back at the 2023 General Election. I start with a recap of how Democrats fared in the results.
While much of the story of the 2023 elections by the media was the re-election of County Executive Ryan McMahon, this simplistic look at one race masks a story of Democratic domination in county wide races. If we look back over the last 4 years, there have been 24 races where Democrats and Republicans have fielded candidates running over the entire county. This includes races that run over larger areas but contain the whole of Onondaga County. In those races Democrats have come out on top 20 of those 24 times inside Onondaga County. Adding all 24 races together Democrats have won on average 5.62%. The biggest margin in the last four years is also last year’s highest vote getter, Onondaga County Comptroller Martin Masterpole.
When we look at Onondaga County office holders going into 2024 the office holders are starting to pile up for Democrats. There are 10 judicial offices that run county wide, five Family Court, 1 Surrogate Court, and 3 County Court seats. With their wins in 2023 all 5 Family Court seats now rest in Democratic hands, as does the Surrogate Court seat, and 1 of the 3 county court seats. When we look at the county wide elected Democrats now hold 3 of 5 seats after years of holding none. Marty Masterpole’s 2019 win broke the damn and was confirmed in his 2023 re-election. The Democrats added County Sheriff with Toby Shelley’s win in 2022 and now County Clerk with Emily Essi this last year. However, despite their success countywide, the county legislature spread remains the same as it has since 2019, 11-6 GOP. This is due to gerrymandered maps leading to lack of candidates.
Another way to look at how Democrats did in 2023 is to look at the number of races that flipped partisan control. 14 races changed party control in 2023, and Democrats won 11 of those 14 flips. Democrats flipped two supervisors (Lysander and Skaneateles), 3 town board seats (Geddes and Salina Wards 1 & 2), two town justice seats (Dewitt & Manlius), the County Clerk, both Family Court seats, and Solvay Village Ward 1. Republicans only flipped 3 seats, two of which were unopposed (Pompey Town Supervisor & Skaneateles Town Council). They also flipped Solvay Village Ward 3. Despite these gains Democrats could have had an even better day. Because of a paperwork error Deb DeGillio remained on the ballot for Geddes Town Council despite also running for Solvay Village Ward 3. The 500 votes she gained on the WFP line probable led to close losses for two other Democrats running for town board, and possibly her loss for Village Ward 3 as well.
The Democrats win in 2023 set up a more favorable map when it comes to controls of local governments, though they still have a long way to go. The flips in Lysander and Skaneateles for Democrats two supervisors to go along with Manlius and Dewitt, though the loss in Pompey meant that they only added a net of one supervisor seat. When it comes to town boards Democrats were able to fare even better. They only lost one town board seat in Skaneateles but added a seat in Geddes and two in Salina. Though Democrats only have control of Salina and Manlius, they are very close to gaining control in Salina, Geddes, and Spafford. Even in Pompey where there is one Democrat, that Democrat is part of a coalition with two other GOP to have control of the board.
That is all for this week’s Weekly Wonk. Next week I will expand a look back at the 2023 General Election diving into Early Voting in the 2023 election. After looking back at the 2023 election this column will turn its eyes to 2024. Subscribe to dustinczarny.com for all election news and content related updates.
Dustin M. Czarny 