The Weekly Wonk: New York’s 22nd Congressional District 2024

Welcome back to the #weeklywonk. In this space I try to shed light on the forces that make up the body politic in New York and Onondaga County. Each week I will look at electoral and registration data that make up a political subdivision or an election event. I continue my look at political subdivisions that will make up the General Election 2024. This week I investigate the newly drawn, again, #NY 22.

The newly drawn #NY22 is decidedly Democratic in registration. The map as drawn by the NYS “Independent” Redistricting commission and enacted by a bi partisan vote of the NYS legislature is new for this election cycle and will last until the 2032 election cycle. There are 173,637 Democrats (36%), 144,054 GOP (30%), 130,295 non-enrolled (27%), 24,256 Other (5%), 8,367 Conservatives (2%), and 2,204 Working Families (<1%). There are five counties in the new #NY22 district. The entirety of Onondaga County is in the district and makes up 63% (305,929 voters) of the active registered voters of the district. The southeastern part of Oneida County below interstate 90 and makes up 17% (80,249) of the district. The entirety of Madison County is also in the district and makes up 9% (43,124). The southern part of Cayuga County including Auburn and below makes up 7% (32,445) of the district. Finally, the northern part of Cortland County above the city of Cortland makes up the last 4% (21,066) of the district.

All congressional district s in New York have undergone quite the journey over the last 12 years, specially so #NY22. In 2012 under the bi-partisan compromise this district, then named #NY24) was drawn to protect the incumbent Ann Marie Buerkle who previously won in the 2010 red wave election. This did not work for her as Dan Maffei won re-election in 2012, but John Katko won in 2014 and was able to hold the district until his retirement in 2022. The power of incumbency helped him overcome the demographics of Central New York, especially Onondaga County, had its effect on the district making it increasingly blue. The Special Master map of the last cycle stemmed that advance by adding more GOP into the district and stagnating the Democratic gains which resulted in a narrow victory for Brandon Williams. However, the new legislature map passed earlier this year reversed that map and once again seems to have moved the district back to its naturally tendency of growing Democratic district. In all since 2012, Democrats have gained 28,636 enrollments while the GOP has lost 496 enrollment and the non-enrolled is the biggest gainer with 28,948 just ahead of the Democrats.

The individual counties partisan rankings in the district vary. Onondaga County makes up not only the most populous portion of the district with a +11.01% enrollment advantage for Democrats and the GOP being outnumbered by the non-enrolled. On the other end of the partisan spectrum is Madison County where the GOP have a 12.74% enrollment advantage and the Non-enrolled and Democrats are battling for second place. The three counties that are only partly in the district are borderline on partisan advantage. The part of Oneida having a 2.36% enrollment advantage for Democrats. The parts of Cortland (.93%) and Cayuga (.95%) have negligible enrollment advantages for the GOP.

Because of the nature of the Congressional district, spanning five different counties there are only two races that we can use to have direct comparisons, 2020 US President & 2022 New York governor. Thanks to NY Redistricting and You we can see a comparison with how this newly drawn district would have voted in those two races if it existed along the lines drawn today. This district would have voted for Joe Biden by 11.6% in 2020. However, in the midterm year of 2022 Lee Zeldin actually won this district by 2.2% making it the definition of a swing district. I included the 2022, 2020, and 2018 congressional races in this slide as a comparison. These race totals were compiled on the district lines drawn for those races, as we cannot make a comparison to the new district. However, with Onondaga County making up so much of all three districts we can see comparisons. Katko was able to survive his last two elections with a majority of the vote, however only won 2018 by 5.26% over Dana Balter. He was more successful in fending off Dana Balter in 2020, but a paperwork error syphoned off part of her vote to a spoiler WFP candidate. If those totals are added back into her column Katko only have won that race by 6.3% a negligible increase from 2018. Brandon Williams in one of the best GOP years in New York in a long time, and on an arguably more favorable GOP map, barely won his election in 2022 by 0.98%.

To truly get an idea on where the new #ny22 might stand we can look at the shifts in the two comparative races under the last three enacted maps. In all three maps we see a district that performs better in Presidential years for Democrats that gubernatorial years. It is the margins that might matter here. Under the 2012-2021 lines the old #ny24 would have voted for Biden by 9.20% and Zeldin by 4.40%. The Special Master Map used in 2022 shifted both of these races to the right with Biden winning by just 7.60% and Zeldin winning by 6.4%. The newly enacted #NY22 shifts it back to the left with Biden winning 11.6% and Zeldin winning by just 2.2%. This is an approximate 4%-point shift in both races towards the Democrats.

Last year I introduced a new feature, the Heat map. In this graphic I try to show the different kaleidoscope of registration states inside a particularly political subdivision. For #NY22 I break the registration down by the Town and/or city registration advantage for either of the major political party. We see a district with major shifts in registration states. Democrats tend to dominate densely packed urban areas and the suburbs around them shift to slightly blue or borderline areas. The GOP dominates less populous areas of the district but to a greater extent. Their domination of these rural areas helps even out the Democratic domination of cities. Bright blue cities like Syracuse and Utica and to a lesser extent Auburn along with college towns like Cortland, Hamilton, and Kirkville paired with suburban towns like Salina, Dewitt, And Manlius stand out for Democrats but a large swat or borderline towns in Onondaga and some in other counties also have opportunity for them as well in a Presidential year.

When I introduced the heat maps last year there was always a general reaction. There was an illusion that the GOP, because of the larger land area where they had partisan advantage were the dominant force in any race. That is just not always true. In a new feature I look at the number of voters in a political subdivision in Democratic, Borderline, and Republican controlled areas. There are nine towns in #ny22 that have a 5% Democratic enrollment or better and they represent 196,376 voters or 40.7% of the district. 10 Towns make up borderline areas with less than 5% enrollment advantage for each party for 145,899 or 30.3%. Finally, fifty towns have a GOP enrolment advantage of 5% or more, but they only make up 139,809 voters or 29.0% of the district. The race for #ny22 will most likely be won in the borderline towns however lessening your opponent’s advantage in their strongholds is also part of the equation.

Democrats will have a primary on June 25^th between NY Senator John Mannion and Dewitt Town Councilor Sarah Klee Hood. The winner of which will go on to face incumbent Republican first-year congressperson Brandon Williams. The shift of #NY22 leftward in redistricting along with the higher turnout promised in a Presidential year gives Democrats a tactical advantage, especially considering Brandon Williams won with less than 1% difference in 2022. However the power of incumbency and a united GOP party will be at Brandon Williams back this year, something he did not have in 2022. This likely makes it a remarkably close race and Democrats will have to quickly unite after the primary to have a chance to unseat him.

That is it for this edition of the #weeklywonk. Thank you to Dave’s Redistricting, NY Redistricting and you, the NYS Board of Elections, and the Onondaga, Cayuga, Cortland, Oneida, and Madison County Board of elections for providing the data within this week’s article. Next week I will take a look at NY Senate district fifty. This race has been the closest NY legislative race each of the last few cycles, but specially in 2022 when the winner won with ten votes. It is also the subject of a Democratic primary in June. As always you can subscribe to dustinczarny.com for all content and election news updates.