The story of Turnout in the 2025 Election

Another story in this election is about turnout. I will do more about this after certification, but going into the last scan we have some numbers on voter stats, specially voter turnout.

Best estimate of voter turnout 93,628 voters out of 313,859: 29.83%

However that is not the whole story. Right now this is typical local/odd year voter turnout. But when we delve into the party numbers another story is told:

Democrats 41,494 out of 116,357 35.66%
Republicans 27,406 out of 83,970 32.64%
Non-Enrolled 19,953 out of 94,634 21.08%

Lets compare this to 2023

Total Vote 90,744 out of 306,077 29.65%
Democrats 36,635 out of 116,344 31.49%
Republicans 30,920 out of 82,351 37.55%
Non-Enrolled 18,218 out of 87,231 20,88%

Now compare to 2021

Total Vote 94,306 out of 303,618 31.06%
Democrats 37,278 out of 116,710 31.94%
Republicans 33,048 out of 82,843 39.89%
Non-Enrolled 18,358 out of 82,777 22.18%

So looking at this sample size we see that while overall turnout and turnout among non-enrolled in 2025 was statistically about the same, Democratic turnout was 5-6% higher than 2023 & 2021 outpacing the GOP which was 5-7% lower than 2023 & 2021.

I will do a deeper dive post certification, but I think this is the first time I can remember where Democratic turnout significantly was better than GOP turnout. Even in other so called Democratic years we always seem to lag or barely tie GOP turnout. The turnout operation by Democratic candidates and party strategists deserves to be commended.

One thought on “The story of Turnout in the 2025 Election

  1. Based on the percentages it looks like this was won by the Democrats on voter turnout. More Dems came out to vote and more Republicans stayed home. But that’s not surprising; I think if people are not happy with their party, they may just stay home, not vote for the other guy.

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