Welcome back to the #weeklywonk. This is my weekly article on election data that I post on my website, dustinczarny.com. Each week I dive into electoral and registration data into different political subdivisions in Onondaga County and New York State. This week I am finishing my four parts look at Onondaga County heading into 2026. You can find part 1 Onondaga County Overall, Part 2 Onondaga County Suburbs, and Part 3 City of Syracuse at the Weekly Wonk section of my website (https://dustinczarny.com/weekly-wonk/). This week is my final edition of this segment, part 4, The Onondaga County Legislative Districts 2026.
For the first time in 50 years the Democrats took control of the Onondaga County legislature following the 2025 elections. At the end of 2024 Republicans held an 11-6 majority which grew to 12-5 when Chris Ryan assumed his NYS Senate Seat and County Executive Ryan McMahon appointed a GOP representative to the seat. This proved to be a one-year rental as OCL 8 is an overwhelmingly Democratic district and Chad Ryan, cousin to Chris Ryan, won a primary and the General election handy. His win along with four other seats that flipped to the Democrats gave Democrats their 10-7 majority. The Democrats retained their seats in OCL districts 7, 9, 15, 16, and 17, with the GOP contesting only one of them. The Democrats won seats in OCL 4, 5, 6, 8, and 10, with every seat contested. THE GOP held onto OCL 1, 2, 3, 11, 12, 13 & 14 and the Democrats did not field candidates in any of those seats in 2025.
The heat map shows the registration data for all the Onondaga County legislative district. This map shows the difference between the Democratic registration percentage and Republican registration percentage. Here we see the outcome of the years of gerrymandering and packing and cracking of districts in our county. However, it is also a result of the polarization of our country. The six dark blue districts (Dem +20%, OCL 7,8,9,15,16, & 17) pack into the highly dense Democratic district in Syracuse and parts of Dewitt and Geddes. However, the Democratic conversion in the suburbs have brough four districts into a lean Democratic (+5-9%, OCL 2,4,5,10). OCL 14 is the only borderline Democratic district (Dem +0-4%). There are four borderline GOP districts (rep 0-4% OCL 6, 11, 12, 13) that use the more rural parts of our county to give these districts a negative partisan lean. OCL 1 and 3, located in the northern corners of our county, are among the largest geographic regions that regularly lean Republican, with a GOP advantage of 5-9%.
Just looking at Democrat vs Republican does not give the whole story of the county. This chart aligns the Conservative members with the GOP and Working Families with the Democrat. Since conservatives outnumber the WFP five to one, most districts have shifted to the right. For example, OCL 14 moves to the GOP, and all other districts shift to the right, except for those based solely in cities where WFP and CON are evenly matched. I also noted on this chart there are only two districts where a member represents a district that does not lean their way ideologically. Although OCL 2 leans slightly to the left, the GOP currently represents the area because there has not yet been a strong Democratic candidate. Democrats managed to win OCL 6 after multiple attempts, successfully overturning the seat even though it had a strong ideological leaning. I anticipate that opposing parties will focus on contesting both seats in 2026.
This chart shows the change in majorities since 2011. In 2011 the Onondaga County Legislature following a vote of the voters reduced the 19-member body down to seventeen seats. While redistricting was underway, Ryan McMahon, a young Republican city council member, joined the Onondaga County Redistricting Commission and suggested creating long winding districts that combined city areas with nearby suburbs, resulting in a heavily gerrymandered supermajority. The McMander resulted in a 13-4 supermajority, which enabled McMahon to win election both to a seat he played a role in establishing and to serve as Chair of the legislature. The Republicans maintained a strong majority up to the Trump administration, after which Democratic registration increased in suburban regions. As a result, Democrats captured two seats originally intended for the GOP—one in 2017 and another in 2019. The country took a right wing turn in 2021 and the Flip the Leg” movement failed. In 2023 there was a new map drawn under the direction of GOP appointee Kevin Hulsander. The expedited Hulsmander map removed certain shared districts; subsequently, the Republican Party approved a map that was later determined to be unlawful. The court case continued until late 2025, requiring the GOP legislature to redraw the map once more. Though they only made slight changes, that and Democratic overperformance resulted in the legislature flip last year.
2011 was a pivotal year in the story of the Onondaga County Legislature. Since the McMander in 2011 we had a redistricting process in 2023 (The Hulsmander map) and the court mandated map in 2025. This along with the partisan shift of our county mostly, but not totally, because of Donald Trump has had a dramatic effect on each of the seventeen districts. Fourteen of the seventeen districts have shifted towards the Democrats. Just one, OCL 3, shifted to the GOP’s control after the 2023 Hulsmander moved its district northward into Cicero and away from Manlius. The same map shifted OCL 15 into the city and we saw a substantial change in that district.
2026 is the first time in Onondaga County history that the county legislature elections will run on even year lines. To get an idea on how these districts perform instead of just their registration rates, I compare how these districts voted in both the 2022 Governor Hochul election and the 2024 Presidential election. This gives an idea on why every district can be more competitive for Democrats in 2026. The 2022 Hochul election is one of the most challenging contests Democrats had faced in years. Likewise, the 2024 Presidential election was a downturn from 2020. Since we are comparing percentage victories here, we can get an idea on how these districts may perform next year. This data was hard to put together as both 2022 and 2024 were on two different maps than the lines now, so I had to compile this data at the election district level and realign with the new districts. Under this scenario Hochul carried 11 of 17 districts and Harris carried 15 of 17 districts. Likely the districts will perform this year somewhere between the percentages of these two elections, but local candidates will matter as well as local issues. Still, there is also a possibility that a broad Democratic surge year like 2025 on an even year scale like we saw in 2018 could put every district in play.
Finally, I look at age in Onondaga County during my #weeklywonks this year. When we look at age in the last few #weeklywonks we saw that the younger the age group Democrats did better under 50 and better the younger you went (though it is just as valid an argument it is the GOP losing to the non-enrolled and doing worse rather than Democrats doing better. Democrats also do better in the oldest age group. So, it is not a surprise that the two oldest districts (OCL 6 & 10) and six of the seven youngest districts (OCL 7, 8, 9, 15, 16, 17) belong to the Democrats. The GOP continues to hold power in the new district (OCL 2), largely because no opposition is challenging it. This also shows that the rest of the districts (OCL 1, 3,4,5, 11,12, 13, & 14) are typical swing districts in terms of age.
That is, it is for this week’s edition of the #weeklywonk. This also wraps up my 4-part series on Onondaga County heading into 2026. Starting next week, I will focus on the towns holding elections in an even year for the first time. My next 6-part series will be on the towns that nominate candidates based on Petitions (Elbridge, Manlius, Marcellus, Onondaga, Salina, & Spafford). There are seven towns that do so, but I am skipping Lysander this year because they do not have any offices up. If that changes, I will add it into the mix later. We start with the town of Elbridge next. As always you can subscribe to dustinczarny.com for all content and election updates.
Dustin M. Czarny 