Welcome back to Wonky Wednesday. Every week I take a look at the election and registration data that makes up the electoral landscape of Onondaga County. I am currently working my way through the 19 Towns of Onondaga County having already did the City of Syracuse. After that we will look at all 17 County Legislature races. Up this week is the Town of Fabius.
The Town of Fabius is the tiniest town in terms of registered voters in Onondaga County. How small is it? Not only is it the smallest of the 19 Towns in Onondaga County but 18 of the 19 individual wards in the City of Syracuse also outnumber Fabius (15th Ward is the exception). It is even smaller than 9 of the 15 villages in Onondaga County. While there has been some growth in recent years it is typical of all sub-divisions in Onondaga County.
The GOP dominates the Town of Fabius with a large plurality of the registered voters. The Democrats barely outnumber the non-enrolled in this rural town. This town is wholly inside the 12th legislative district but is split in two by two election districts that splits the town in two equally populous halves.
The dominance of the GOP in this town is generational and it is reflected in the enrollment data going back to 2009. In the rise of Democrats in Onondaga county that we saw in 2016 we have seen a slight increase in Democratic population here as well. This though has barely kept up with the rise in GOP enrollment. Fabius is also one of the few towns that have gotten more Republican since the election, though data is limited.
In the two election districts in Fabius the GOP is almost equally as dominant. ED 1 contains the village of Fabius and villages tend to be more Democratic. Here it seems it is resulting in more non-enrolled but not a substantial portion of Democrats. The village of Fabius is one of the few villages not solely inside of an election district and that may be changed next year. However there is also talk of dissolving this village as well.
As you might imagine the Town of Fabius performs poorly with our significant six races. In the 2019 low turnout models the county wide GOP candidates had dominant performances in the usual order of County Exec, County Clerk, and County Comptroller. Even in the 2020 high turnout models Republicans had dominant performances. This is one of the few towns where Biden did not win in 2020 showing how strong the GOP brand is in this town.
For Democrats to win in this area a candidate will have to focus on winning over non-enrolled as well as a significant portion of GOP. It is not impossible but a campaign around local issues will need to be at the forefront. IN 2021 the Town Supervisor, Clerk, Highway Superintendent, Justice, and two of the Town Councilors are on the ballot. Democrats nominate by caucus in the Town of Fabius which can be scheduled anytime between now and mid-July. If you are interested in helping out contact Fabius Democratic Town Chair Markey Dormer at mbdormer@gmail.com
Dustin M. Czarny 