Welcome back to Wonky Wednesday.  Each week I do a deep dive into the election and registration data that makes up the electoral landscape of our home, Onondaga County.  I hope by looking into this data we can glean that this everchanging county is not monolithic as once thought and competition for Democrats, and all registrations, can be found everywhere.  This week I investigate the last of the 19 towns of Onondaga County, the Town of Van Buren.

The Town of Tully sits near the Northwestern corner of our county.  The northern, eastern, and western border of the town is created by the Seneca River. It shares the village of Baldwinsville with the Town of Lysander which straddles the river in the Northeast Corner of the Town. The Eastern border of the town along the river is denser with housing developments while the rest of the town is more agrarian and rural.

Van Buren would be the largest of the small towns of Onondaga, though it is probably more accurate to describe it as a hybrid of large suburban sprawl and agrarian rural living.  Van Buren has seen the typical gradual rise of registered voters since 2015 with the explosion of registrations we have seen in 2020 across Onondaga County. It is likely the population has grown in this town as well, but we will need to wait and see Census data later this year to confirm.  It is wholly inside the 13^th County Legislative district currently held by Ken Bush (R).

The current registration of the Town of Van Buren shows a GOP plurality, but Democrats are within striking distance.  Republicans make up 34% of the town with Democrats at 30%. Non-enrolled (BLK) voters’ makeup 27% of the town.  Van Buren has 11 election districts, and they vary greatly because of the dichotic nature of the town.  More compact urban eds have larger populations then sprawling agrarian eds.

Van Buren might be the next town to turn blue, but that is several years off.  The GOP has maintained their voting population in this town at a consistent level. However, as the town grows so does the Democratic and non-enrolled populations lessen the GOP impact. Will this trend continue, and will the non-enrolled voters break towards Democrats in state or local elections are the questions that may dominate Van Buren politics if Democrats put up candidates in the future?  

 The eleven election districts really vary in terms of their size and Demographic makeup.  Eds 3 & 4 are the portion of the village of Baldwinsville that sits inside the town and the makeup of these districts are about evenly split.  The districts close to the river with large amounts of housing, 6,7,10 & 111 also look to be evenly divided.  The other 5 districts, 1,2,5,8,9 are the more agrarian districts and give the town its GOP plurality.

The significant six races provide some evidence that Van Buren may have a more Democratic future.  In 2019 Van Buren once again behaved like a typical rural town, heavily favoring all GOP candidates with the comptroller race being closer than the others. However, in 2020 the new enrollments and higher turnout started to show their influence.  Congress was typically a tough race for the Democrats here, but Mannion fought to 5-point deficit and Joe Biden had the tiniest of plurality in this Town.  If these voters continue to vote in local races at these numbers some positions in the Town of Van Buren could come into play.

The Town of Van Buren Democrats nominate candidates by caucus.  The town supervisor, highway superintendent, Justice, and three town councilors are up for election in 2021.  If you are interested in getting involved contact Van Buren Democratic Chair Jill Hayes by emailing her at jill.hayes091@gmail.com

This ends my look at the 19 towns of Onondaga.  Next week I will look at the changes we have seen since last year in Onondaga County as our June registration numbers are in.  Then I start looking at the 17 Onondaga County Legislative races in 2021. Hope you keep tuning in.

Welcome back to Wonky Wednesday.  Each week I do a deep dive into the election and registration data that makes up the electoral landscape of our home, Onondaga County.  I hope by looking into this data we can glean that this everchanging county is not monolithic as once thought and competition for Democrats, and all registrations, can be found everywhere.  This week I investigate the Town of Tully.

The Town of Tully sits in the middle of the Southern border of our County.  It is a small mostly agrarian town, but it does have a small urban center located in the village of Tully.  It is wholly inside the 12^th Onondaga County legislative district, currently held by chairman of the County Legislature, David Knapp.  It does have 3 Election Districts that divides the town.

Tully is one of the smaller towns, but it sits in the middle of what is considered the agrarian towns of Onondaga County.  The voter registration numbers have been remarkably stable over the last 12 years.  There was a gradual decline in voter registration from 2009 to 2015.  The 2016 presidential election saw an increase of registrations which was maintained until another jump in registration in 2020. Notably the registrations seem to be increasing in 2021 as well.

The current registration of the Town of Tully shows a solid GOP town.  Republicans make up 38% of the town with Democrats at 28%.  Non-enrolled (BLK) voters’ makeup 27% of the town.  Tully has just three election districts.  The 1^st Election District contains the village of Tully.  The 2^nd Election district has the northeastern corner of the town, and the 3^rd is the southwestern portion of the town.

There are some interesting things going on in this small town. We see a plateauing of the GOP registrations over the last 12 years.  While the GOP still has a large plurality, the Democrats have steadily gained since 2015. They went from being outnumbered by the non-enrolled to overtaking them.  Right now, non-enrolled voters have not changed much since 2009and in fact dropped a bit a few years ago before rebounding.

The three Election Districts in Tully do not really have much difference in partisan enrollment.  Democrats are outnumbered in all three districts, though not as much in the village of Tully.  It is notable the village of Tully has had a Democratic mayor and will again this year as the Democrat running is running unopposed.  Though it is also notable the village does not run-on traditional party lines despite being a November election,

The significant six races provide some evidence that Tully may be seeing some opportunities.  In 2019 Tully behaved like many rural towns and voted for the County Executive, Comptroller, and Clerk candidates by double digits.  However, in 2020, Biden squeaked out a win in this town and Senator Rachel May was able to escape with just single digit losses here.  This could mean that we see the new enrolled voters that appeared in 2020 are more Democratic leaning even in the non-enrolled.  If that is the case it will be an opportunity of those voters participate in local years.

The Town of Tully Democrats nominate candidates by caucus.  The town clerk, town justice, and two town councilors are up for election in 2021.  If you are interested in getting involved contact Tully Town Democratic Chair Elizabeth Weinstein by emailing her at elizabethsweinstein@gmail.com

Welcome back to Wonky Wednesday.  Each week I do a deep dive into the election and registration data that makes up the electoral landscape of our home, Onondaga County.  I hope by looking into this data we can glean that this everchanging county is not monolithic as once thought and competition for Democrats, and all registrations, can be found everywhere.  This week I investigate the Town of Spafford.

The Town of Spafford sits in the Southwestern corner of our county sandwiched between Otisco and Skaneateles lake.  This mostly agrarian town has no villages or urban centers. It is wholly inside the 6^th Onondaga County Legislative district currently represented by Julie Abbott Keenan seeking her 3^rd term.  

Spafford is one of the smaller towns in terms of voter registration, smaller than a few City of Syracuse wards.  Their voter registration has remained basically stable since 2009. The jumps in 2019 and 2020 are probably not permanent increases but the reflection of normal increases associated with Presidential elections.  Without a lot of rental and housing developments it is unlikely that a major population surge can happen in this small town.

The current registration of the Town of Spafford shows a solid GOP town.  Republicans make up 44% of the town with Democrats at 27%.  Non-enrolled (BLK) voters’ makeup 23% of the town.  Spafford has just two election districts.  The 1^st Election District is only the northern 3^rd of the town; however, it contains more residents than the southern 2/3rds of the town in the second Election District.

The GOP domination in enrollment of this town remains though their registration has plateaued as of late.  Democrats have increased their numbers as of late but only slightly. The largest increase is in the non-enrolled population.  This non-enrolled population has truly behaved as a swing electorate in this town over the last few years.

The two election districts are not drastically different in terms of party enrollment, but they are distinct.  The smaller in area but more populous 1^st district has a little less extreme disadvantage for Democrats.  It is clear though in both districts Democrats need help from the non-enrolled to overcome the GOP advantages.

The significant six races provide some evidence that a Democrat and non-enrolled is possible under the right circumstances.  Much like other Southwestern towns like Marcellus and Skaneateles, in 2019 the GOP candidates for County Executive, County Clerk, and County Comptroller had solid margins of victory in this town.  The same dynamic happened in 2020 with Congress with Katko winning a sizable share.  We again see though a virtual tie for NYS Senate and Biden winning this town by 5 points.  The Democrats have won town wide office here, controlling majority on the Town Board and the Highway Superintendent.  In the past they have also controlled the Supervisor.

The Town of Spafford Democrats have already nominated their candidates for town office by petition last March.  Christine Fesko and Hannah Tighe are running again for Town Board and Jody Fisher is running for Highway Superintendent.   If you are interested in getting involved contact Spafford Town Democratic Chair David Hempson and you can contact him at dhempson24@gmail.com