Welcome back to Wonky Wednesday, where I dive into some of the data that makes up elections in Onondaga County.  As we wrap up 2020 I continue to reflect on the historic 2020 Presidential election this last November.  One of the hallmarks of this last election was the variety in which voters chose to vote.  Last week I detailed the increase in Vote by Mail or absentee voting and this week I will focus on the explosion of Early Voting in Onondaga County.   Early Voting is still in its infancy in New York state.  The 2020 General election is only the third election to use this convenient way of voting but it already has had a major impact.

Like absentee voting in 2020, Early Voting was dominated by Democrats.  Democrats accounted for over 46% of the Early Voting universe.  This is despite making up just 38% of the enrollment of Onondaga County and 39% of the overall turnout for the 2020 General Election.  Early Voting like Vote by Mail became highly partisan with Democrats gearing their turnout operations towards taking advantage and the GOP resisting this voting tool.

That GOP resistance is well documented in the site selection process of Early Voting with Onondaga County GOP politicians and party leaders organizing against expansion of sites resulting in the bare minimum of 6.  This resulted in long lines during the 2020 election with voters waiting up to 90 minutes at some sites.  The 6 sites (Camillus Fire Station, Clay Town Hall, Dewitt Town Hall, Lafayette Fire Station #1, Armond Magnarelli Center, & Syracuse Community Connections) all saw increased traffic during the General Election.  The suburban voting sites of Camillus, Clay and Dewitt saw the most traffic with the City sites and Lafayette lagging.  However the usage of all sites was dramatically increased with 5 of the 6 sites surpassing on their own the 2019 General total for all sites (8462).

Which leads us into the next stat, the dramatic increased use of Early Voting.  The first election that Early Voting could be used was the 2019 General Election.  During that election 8462 voters used EV which ended up representing 7.86% of the overall vote.  Though some, wrongly, pointed to that number as proof that EV would never be popular, it is worth noting that it was more than double the amount of absentee voters that year (3788).  The next election, the 2020 combined Presidential and local primary, saw a decrease in use of Early Voting.  This was mainly due to the COVID-19 outbreak driving over 60% of the voters to vote by absentee.  However as the 2020 General unfolded, more voters wanted to vote in-person because of fears about the US postal service and the wish to have their vote counted as part of the Election Night totals permeated the electorate.  This resulted in over 59k voters and nearly 25% of the electorate to chose to vote over the 9 days of Early Voting.

Despite staying at the minimum number of sites we were able to make a change that proved to help the voters.  In 2019 the There was a glaring hole in the Southwest corner of Onondaga County as one of the sites was located in Van Buren.  I tried to remedy this by using state money to increase sites and adding a site in Onondaga and Cicero.  This did not happen in either 2019 or 2020.  However we were able to move the Van Buren site to Camillus.  This helped the Southwest corner of our County as Camillus Fire Department became the most popular site.  It also served to even out the usage of all 6 sites, as did increase publicity reminding voters they could travel to other sites that were less busy like Armond Magnarelli Center and Lafayette Fire station.

The usage of Early Voting sites definitely varied by town both in terms of raw numbers as well as percentage of registered voters.  The City of Syracuse led with raw numbers which is expected.  It is the biggest municipality and had two Early Voting sites to choose from.  However when we look at the percentage we see that the little town of Lafayette which had an Early Voting site located in it saw the highest percentage of its voters choose to vote by EV.  In fact Camillus Clay, Dewitt are also amongst the highest percentage, where Syracuse drops down in percentage of its voters.  Urban centers, like Syracuse, tend to lag in turnout overall when compared to large suburbs,  

Proximity to Early Voting site definitely seems to drive usage.  In this crude map of Onondaga County you can see the darker the green the higher the percentage of voters from that town used Early Voting.  The farther away from an Early Voting Center the less percentage a town used Early Voting.  This is why I agree with Syracuse.com, we need to expand Early Voting sites to take advantage of this amazing tool  Lawmakers in Albany are having discussions about raising the minimum sites and I believe it is the right thing to do.  Expansion and well placed sites based on data and not resistance to change will lead to more equity throughout our county, and New York State.

Welcome to Wonky Wednesday.  Each week I intend to do a deeper dive into the data that drives elections in Onondaga County.  Before we look ahead to the 2021 elections I intend to spend a few weeks dissecting the remarkable 2020 general election dat.  Last week I looked at overall turnout in Onondaga County.  This week I dive into one of the main driving factors of that turnout, Absentee, Affidavit, and Court Order ballots.

Vote by Mail, or Absentee Voting as we call it in New York, saw a boon across the country this year.  The ravages of COVID-19 and the wish not to congregate in crowded Election Day and Early Voting polling places drove many members of our community to voting from the safety of their home.  59,639 voters turned in Absentee ballots in Onondaga County, with 57,203 of those absentees counted after Election Day.  The most common reason for an absentee ballot not to count was undeliverable (1353) followed by voted in person (433) and then unmatched signatures (131). Democrats dominated the absentee ballot count with 48.5% of the absentee ballots returned compared to just 22.3% for the GOP.  In fact, Non-enrolled outnumbered GOP with 23.2% of absentees.  In a later wonky Wednesday I will dive into the Red Mirage vs Blue Shift phenomenon during 2020 election.

We can’t track party registration of affidavits as they often are either changing parties or switching registrations from other counties. Unfortunately, our registration system is not able to track those changes and give voter history based on affidavit voters only.  We can however combine the affidavit ballots received with the absentee ballots received and track them based on region as I do here.  We see that the City of Syracuse only accounts for 21.2% of the post-election affidavit and absentee totals.  But as we know form last week’s Wonky Wednesday:  Onondaga County Turnout 2020 General that the City of Syracuse represented 20.2% of the overall turnout.  While it does look like the City of Syracuse tended to use Absentee voting a little bit more on average it is statistically irrelevant.  

Obviously, the big story of absentee ballots in 2020 is the massive increase in use. This chart shows you just how drastic a change it was.  The next closest year in absentees was the last presidential election in 2016. 2020 saw well over a 400% increase in both applications received and absentee ballot returns.  Obviously fear of contracting COVID-19 is the driving factor here with voters.  However, convenience is part of the answer here as well.  It will be interesting to see if this trend continues next November and more importantly in 2022 when all restrictions on absentees could be removed as a constitutional amendment to remove the excuse for absentees will be put before voters.   

There is a myth when it comes to affidavit ballots.  Many believe that these are rarely counted and routinely thrown out.  In Onondaga County, and most counties throughout New York State, that is not true.  In fact, it is quite the opposite.  The vast majority of Affidavit Ballots are counted each year.  The main reasons for rejection are voters who are not registered or show up to the wrong polling place.  Overall Affidavit voters have decreased when compared to 2012 and 2016 presidential years despite turnout overall going up.  The reason for that is it is easier to register and maintain your registration through Mydmv.com.  This keeps more voters active and properly registered at their correct address thus limiting the need for affidavit ballots.   

Finally let’s take a look at Court order ballots.  Unlike Affidavit and absentee ballots, court orders vote on the image cast machines on Election Day and Early Voting.  It was thought the need for court orders would be less since registration portability allowed voters from other counties to vote by affidavit ballot instead of the arduous court order process.  Turnout though was remarkably high this year thus it is likely the reason court orders went up from 2016 as well.  With more citizens interested in voting it resulted in more unlikely voters showing up to the polls.  COVID-19 made registration drives harder so some voters that wanted to vote may have not been given the opportunity to register thus necessitating a court order.  Judges in Onondaga County tend to be pretty forgiving and believing of citizens who come before them asking for the right to court and they only rejected 2 voters in the 2020 General Election and historically have been reluctant to deny a voter their right to vote when a compelling case is given.   

That is all for this week’s Wonky Wednesday.  Next week I plan to do a similar look into Early Voting in Onondaga County during the 2020 General Election.