Elections Professional and Activist
This week I am pulling a little of an audible and addressing the new ruling by NYS Supreme Court that RFK Jr. will not appear on the ballot for President. I read from the ruling and detail why I think this is a significant ruling if upheld, beyond the electoral chances of RFK Jr. himself. Enjoy.
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This week I sit down with Chris Ryan. Chris is the current Onondaga County legislature minority leader and sitting 7th district legislature. He is the Democratic and Working Families candidate for NYS Senate district 50. This is poised to be one of the most competitive seats in NYS. Enjoy
Learn more about him here https://www.chrisryanforsenate.com/
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Today I talk to you from the NYSECA summer Conference, So a little Commissioner from a conference action. I give my first instant reaction to the strength of he Tim Walz pick and the way he will get on the ballot in all 50 states. Enjoy.
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Welcome back to the #weeklywonk. This is my weekly article on election statistics and related topics. These articles give insight into the data and statistics that make up our home, Onondaga County and New York State. Each week I investigate a different election event or political subdivision that can give us clues into our rich and diverse electoral tapestry. Now that the June primary has been certified we turn our attention to the General Election. We continue our look at Onondaga County with a focus on the suburbs. We look at the seventeen towns that surround the City of Syracuse.
We have 234,608 active registered voters in the suburbs of Onondaga County as of the close of July 2024. Democrats make up 76,474 (33%), Republicans 73,034 (31%) non-enrolled 69,192 (29%), Conservatives 4,407 (2%) Working Families 830 (<1%) and 10,671 are in various other not recognized parties (5%). The City of Syracuse only makes up 23% (71,098 voters) of the active voters of Onondaga County. The rest belongs to the suburbs. The suburbs can essentially be broken into two distinct types of towns. We have large suburban towns and small agrarian towns. The large suburban towns make up 64% (194,273 voters) of Onondaga County. The small agrarian towns make up just 13% (40,335 voters despite being roughly equal in acreage.
When we look at the partisan trends in Onondaga county, we see now familiar term trends since 1996 and also short-term trends since the last presidential election. Since 1996 Democrats in the suburbs have added 11,499 voters, & the non-enrolled have added 16,120 voters. The GOP though has lost 4,775 voters. However, since the 2020 election we are seeing a new trend. Democrats have lost 543 voters, and the GOP have lost 2,330 voters. However, the non-enrolled has exploded, adding 5,282 voters. It will be interesting to see whether this trend changes at all as registrations come in for the fall Presidential election.
Taking a look at the partisan makeup of the suburban regions of Onondaga County we can see why a pretty strong polarization. The City of Syracuse is the most Democratic with Democrats having a +41.92% enrollment advantage. The large suburban towns end up having a borderline Democratic advantage of 3.81%. The rural towns have a moderate GOP lean of 9.80%. The heavy Democratic lean of Syracuse and small lean of the large suburban towns is what is driving the partisan lean of Onondaga County as the shear numbers overwhelm the small agrarian towns to give Onondaga County its slight blue lean. In fact, the sheer numbers of the suburban towns alone allot the Democrats to have a small advantage even outside of the City of Syracuse.
We will take a look at most of these towns individually throughout the rest of the year, especially if they are having competitive races. However, this graph shows how towns have changed since 2009. Almost every town has gotten more Democratic over time. Since 2009 2 towns were slightly Democratic (Dewitt and Salina) and expanded their Democratic advantage. % towns (Camillus, Clay, Geddes, Manlius, & Onondaga) flipped from Republican advantage to Democrat, with Manlius being the biggest swing. We have had eight towns (Lafayette, Lysander, Marcellus, Pompey, Skaneateles, Spafford, Tully, & Van Buren) reduce their GOP advantage though remain Republican. Finally, four towns (Cicero, Elbridge, Fabius, & Otisco) have increased the GOP advantage over the last 15 years.
With that we check in on the heat map for Onondaga County. This has essentially remained unchanged since 2020. You have your bright blue dominant City of Syracuse in the middle of the county. You then see the easter direct suburbs with the dark solid democratic lean of Dewitt, followed by the slight leans of Manlius & Salina. The borderline Democratic towns of Clay sit to the north, and Camillus, Geddes, and Onondaga County to the direct west of Syracuse. Borderline GOP towns of Van Buen sit in the northwest and Cicero in the northeast. Slight GOP towns in Lysander, Marcellus, Skaneateles, Pompey, and Tully are scattered as we get farther out from Syracuse. Moderate GOP towns like Elbridge and Lafayette make up the next group. Spafford is in the next group with a strong GOP lean. Finally, you have the dominant GOP towns of Otisco and Fabius in the dark red.
An analysis of the suburbs cannot be complete without a look at how third parties affect the towns. While Conservatives are small county wide, they are mostly existing outside the City of Syracuse. With the Working Families having such a small number, this means every town shifts a bit to the right. This represents about a 2-3% shift per town. This is most evidently in play in the borderline towns from the heat map. Cicero and Van Buren become slight right ward leaning instead of borderline. Camillus flips from a borderline Democratic town to a borderline right lean. Onondaga Geddes, and Clay get remarkably close to evenly registered towns when you take the conservative effect on their enrollment.
Finally, we look at the comparative races and how they perform in the suburbs vs. the county overall. In general, the suburbs react about 4-5% more republican than the county as a whole. In 2022 Governor Kathy Hochul lost the suburbs and was only able to get 4.974% of the suburban vote which is 4.04% less than her win in Onondaga County. In the 2021 Supreme Court race Anthony Brindisi only got 46.84% of the suburban vote, 5.66% less than his Onondaga County total. President Biden’s 2024 race was the only comparative race that won the suburbs with 54.30% of the vote but that still trailed his county wide total by 4.58%. Finally last year Emily Essi was one of the closest races in Onondaga County but bucked the trend in the suburbs somewhat. Though she lost the suburbs with just 47.48% but that was only 2.66% lower than her Onondaga County total.
That is, it for this edition of the #weeklywonk. Nest week we will continue to look at the political subdivisions in our county holding elections. We will investigate the city of Syracuse which not only has two City Court races this year, but it will also play a vital part in the Congressional and Family Court races this fall. As always you can subscribe to dustinczarny.com to get all my content and election news updates.
This week I sit down with Al Stirpe, longtime assemblyperson of the 127th Assembly District. he is running for re-election again this year to represent Clay, Cicero, Manlius and Cazenovia. We talk about some of the success in this year’s legislative session and unachieved goals to work toward in the future. Enjoy. Find out more about Al at https://alstirpe.org/
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This week I talk about the races on the November ballot, that are not President. We have a ton of races on the ballot this year in Onondaga County and beyond. I preview which races are competitive and you might have choices on this November. Enjoy.
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Welcome back to the #weeklywonk. This is my weekly article on election statistics and related topics. These articles give insight into the data and statistics that make up our home, Onondaga County and New York State. Each week I investigate a different election event or political subdivision that can give us clues into our rich and diverse electoral tapestry. Now that the June primary has been certified we turn our attention to the General Election. We start with a look at Onondaga County as a whole which will be holding an election for a newly created Family Court seat this November.
We have 306,182 active registered voters in Onondaga County as of the close of July 2024. Democrats make up 115,655 (38%_, Republicans 82145 (275, non-enrolled 88629 (29%), Conservatives 5,065 (2%) Working Families 1423 (<1%) and 13,265 are in various other not recognized parties (4%). For the purposes of this article, I am breaking up our county into five distinct regions. We have the city of Syracuse (71,098 voters 23%) in the center. The northern towns of Cicero, Clay, and Lysander (81,922 27%) is the largest region. The Western towns of Camillus, Elbridge, Geddes, Onondaga, & Van Buren (61,077 20%) are grouped together. The Eastern grouping of towns is Dewitt, Manlius, & Salina (64,817 21%). The largest collection of towns and acreage belongs to the southern group of Fabius, Lafayette, Marcellus, Otisco, Pompey, Skaneateles, Spafford, & Tully (26,792 9%) also has the fewest number of voters.
The NYS Election reforms in 2019 made it easier to register to vote and we have seen that in the growth of voters in Onondaga County which exploded in 2020 topping out at 308,296 voters. The current voters pf 306,182 represent the highest total since 2020 and second highest since records I have going back to 1996. After Presidential elections voters fall off the election roles falling inactive and eventually off the roles entirely as mail check cards as well as registration changes take effect and outweigh new registrations. It is likely that after the Presidential election is finished, we will challenge the 2020 record as new registrations pick up over the next 90 days.
When we look at the partisan trends in Onondaga county, we can see both long term trends since 1996 and also short-term trends since the last presidential election. Since 1996 Democrats have added 29,955 voters, & the non-enrolled have added 16,063 voters. The GOP though has lost 23,977 voters. This is why Onondaga, once a reliably red county, has turned purple if not light blue. However, since the 2020 election we are seeing a new trend. Democrats have lost 2,634 voters and the GOP have lost 628 voters. However, the non-enrolled has exploded, adding 6783 voters.
Straight partisan advantage is not the only story in our county. We have four recognized parties in our state: Democratic, Republican, Conservative, and Working Families. Fusion voting allows candidates to run on multiple lines at the same time. Traditionally Democrats and Working Families join forces while the GOP and Conservatives support the other candidate. Conservatives have more voters than the GOP. This slide represents the Democratic advantage in the county by pairing these parties together and comparing the percentage to the overall county voter. As we can see since 1996 the Democrats have reversed the county lean from favoring the GOP by 9.16% in 1996 to favoring the Democrats by 9.17% currently. However, there is cause for concern for Democrats. The current percentage of 9.17% is the lowest since 2019. As the General election campaign heats up this will be a good statistic to check in on right before the November election.
Taking a look at the partisan makeup of the regions of Onondaga County we can see why this is an extremely competitive county. The City of Syracuse is the most Democratic with Democrats having a +41.92% enrollment advantage. On the other side is the southern region where the GOP has a +11.01% advantage. The eastern towns are the best region outside of Syracuse with a +10.51% for Democrats. The Western and Northern regions though are nearly deadlocked. The GOP has the slightest of edges in these regions with a +.44% edge in the North and a +.11% in the west.
We have a new entry in the top four races that we will look at to see how a political division may react. The 2023 County Clerk race replaces the 2019 County Clerk race as a close race county wide. Emily Essi won the County Clerk for Democrats by .33% and is a good indication of how our county reacts as a baseline in odd low turnout years. In 2022 Governor Kathy Hochul won Onondaga County by 7.75%, with Hochul winning the state by just 6.34% Onondaga County makes a good case for being a bellwether county for statewide offices. Anthony Brindisi failed to win a Supreme Court seat but won Onondaga County by 5.04% representing a solid result for Democrats in an odd year. Of course, President Biden’s win in 2020 represents a theoretical high for Democrats as he won the county by 20.03%.
Finally, we check in on how Democrats have done in county wide races over the last four years. These totals represent races that spanned the entirety of Onondaga County though they may and often do span beyond our county. These totals represent only the portions inside our county. We see that Democrats have been on quite a roll over the last four years. 21 of 25 county wide contests have voted for the Democratic candidate inside Onondaga County. This includes last year, 2023 where Democrats carried 4 of 6 seats. Last year also had three of the widest disparities with County Executive Ryan McMahon winning re-election by 23.61%, DA William Fitzpatrick winning his race by 22.61%, and County Comptroller Martin Masterpole winning his re-election by 30.88%. However, when looking at the family court results the Democrats have won the last five seats and now represent all 5 Onondaga County Family Court seats.
The Family Court seat this year is an added seat, and Democrats will look to continue their success. They have nominated first time candidate Christina El Bayadi will appear on the Democratic line. Perennial candidate Jason Ziegler will appear on the Republican and Conservative line. You can learn more about Christina by visiting her website https://www.electelbayadi.com/
That is, it for this edition of the #weeklywonk. Nest week we will continue to look at the political subdivisions in our county holding elections. We will investigate the suburbs of Onondaga County and dive into the seventeen towns. As always you can subscribe to dustinczarny.com to get all my content and election news updates.
Welcome back to the #weeklywonk. This is my weekly article on election statistics and related topics. These articles give insight in the data and statistics that make up our home, Onondaga County and New York State. Each week I investigate a different election event or political subdivision that can give us clues into our rich and diverse electoral tapestry. This week I finish my 2-week investigation into the recent 2024 June Federal and local primary. Today I focus on Election Day and Overall turnout.
Election Day voting remains the most popular form of voting in New York. We had 22,381 voters in the June 2024 Primary and 16,097 (72%) chose to vote on Election Day. Other forms of voting were Mail Balloting with 2300 voters (10%), Early Voting with 3,878 voters (17%), affidavit voting with 72 voters (1%), and court orders with 5 voters (0%). On Election Day 13,621 voters were Democrat (85%), 2,472 were Republican (15%) and just 4 Conservative voters (0%).
While Election Day voting continues to be the most popular, its vote share is waning. The 16097 Election Day voters was just 71.92% of the overall vote share. This was one of the smaller vote shares since the major election reforms in 2019. Primaries did not start getting Early Voting until 2020. The 20202 June primary was at the height of the pandemic and saw the lowest amount of in person voting on Election Day. However, as the pandemic subsided, and vaccines were introduced we saw a resurgence in Election Day voting in primary. However, we have seen a steady decline in primaries (and general election) of vote share on Election Day. The voters are trending towards using Early Voting and Vote by mail more as we saw with the last #weeklywonk.
Each #weeklywonk on Election Day I like to point out the top ten polling places that had voters on Election Day, what is notable about this listing is 5 of the top 10 polling places were inside the city of Syracuse. This is abnormal as polling sites inside the city are smaller, but a higher concentration of Democrats. Pumped up those numbers. Three of those polling Places (Nottingham High School 311, Erwin First United 299, and Spiritual Renewal Center 287) were in the east side of Syracuse otherwise known as the Mighty 17th ward, the largest concentration of Democrats throughout the county and upstate NY. The other two city sites were Bellevue Heights (269) is on the west side and Valley Vista (204) on the south side. The suburban sites are our usual suspects St. Michael & St. Peter (Onondaga, 300), Skaneateles Fire Department (249), St Joseph’s Parish (Camillus, 233), Immaculate Conception Church (Manlius 228), Skaneateles Presbyterian, & Baldwinsville Public Library (Lysander).
In 2019 we added electronic poll books to every polling place county wide. This not only makes it easier to check in voter it gives us some data that we weren’t ever able to get before, the check-ins by hour on Election Day is one of those stats. We can see that the 2024 June primary, and all primaries, show a definitive pattern. A rising tide of voters between 6am and 10am, The flow then levels off between 10am and 3pm. Starting at 4pm we see our biggest rush as voters get out of work and vote, which lasts until 6pm. From 6pm to 9pm we see a steady decline in check ins until it reaches zero.
The turnout for the June 2024 primary was just 14.79%. We saw 22,381 voters. 129,170 voters who were eligible to vote chose not to. Primaries are closed in New York and 154,551 voters in Onondaga County were not eligible to vote in this primary. Democrats made up 86% of the voters who cast a ballot (19303), Republicans were just 14% (3,056 voters). Conservatives several small primaries that just had 21 voters (<1%). This means Democrats had 16.69% turnout of their eligible voters, Republicans 8.37% of their eligible voters, and Conservatives 21.25% of their eligible voters.
In primaries Democrats tend to outperform Republicans in terms of frequency and turnout. Democrats who are often challengers to incumbents, tend to have a primary of some sort each year. Since 2009 we have had 21 separate primary events where Democrats participated in 19 of them and the GOP just 12. We have not had a year where there was not a primary, even if it is a small one. Notably the June 2024 primary Democrats (16.69%) turned out at nearly double the rate of Republicans (8.37%). The last time that happened was the 2020 combined congressional and presidential primaries.
When looking at turnout by region the City of Syracuse tends to fare better then it does in General Elections. In General election the City of Syracuse lags the suburbs but in primaries the City of Syracuse tends to be more participatory. 4 of the 21 primary events since 2009 have been City of Syracuse only events. In 9 of the primaries that were there were both suburban and city portions, the City of Syracuse outpaced the suburbs. * Of the elections the suburbs outpaced the city. The 2024 June primary was the latter. The City of Syracuse had a turnout rate of 12.33%, the suburbs 15.93% for an overall turnout of 14.79%.
That is, it for this edition of the #weeklywonk. Because of the travel Armageddon and Biden’s decision to drop out this episode is dropping a little late. I plan for my next edition to drop this weekend. We will start to look at the political subdivisions in our county holding elections. We start with Onondaga County as a family court seat is running county wide. As always you can subscribe to dustinczarny.com to get all my content and election news updates.
This week I talk about the surprise, kind of, decision of President Joe Biden to not run in 2024. Also the surprising consolidation of the Democratic Party around now presumptive nominee Kamala Harris. I also talk about why there is little to no legal peril for this move and the way forward from here. Enjoy.
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Dustin Czarny, who chairs the state Elections Commissioner Association’s Democratic Caucus, said Biden’s decision to drop out won’t change anything in the election process.
“I’m pretty confident in a lot of the election attorneys on both sides of the aisle who came out over the weekend saying that the convention is the ballot access process and the convention hasn’t happened yet, so changes can happen,” he said. “…When those 14 million people went to the ballot box, including in April in New York, the people voting for President Biden understood that Vice President Kamala Harris was there to take his place in case he could not go forward, so there should not even be a presumption of liability here. There’s no legal ramifications here — it sounds like a lot of bluster.”
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Dustin M. Czarny