Welcome back to the #WeeklyWonk. Each weekend I release an article on a subject relating to elections in Onondaga County and New York State. Often these articles will have detailed stats to consume but sometimes they will be a recap of a prominent issue or on relevant election law. I am turning my eye to the 2023 elections.  Each week I hat will have races in them this fall.  I start with my annual look at our home, Onondaga County.

2023 is what is known as our County-wide office year.  Running County wide this year we have County Executive, County Clerk, District Attorney, and County Comptroller.  For years county-wide offices were solely the domain of the GOP, but Democrats have had recent success.  In 2019 Marty Masterpole was the first Democrat to win county wide office in decades and Bernadette Romano Clark won Onondaga County in her re-election campaign for Supreme Court and despite losing Julie Cerio carried the Onondaga portion of the district.  In 2020 President Biden easily won Onondaga County. Julie Cerio and Christie DeJospeh won both Family court seats and Rory McMahon won Onondaga County by a wide Margin helping him win election to Supreme Court.  In 2021 despite losing his Supreme Court bid, Anthony Brindisi won Onondaga County. 

In 2022 Toby Shelly also won Sheriff and Ted Limpert won County Court Judge and Julie Cecile won re-election for Family Court.  in 2022.  All four statewide offices, all four statewide offices Governor, Comptroller, Attorney General, and Senator carried Onondaga County.  Fran Conole for Congress and all four Supreme Court candidates carried Onondaga County in their losing campaigns.  All in all, Democrats have won or carried their Onondaga County portions of their contest in 20 of 26 races since 2019, and 4 of 8 in lower turnout odd years.  In fact one race, the 2020 Congressional could have gone Democrats way if not for a split race on the WFP line due to a technicality.

This is borne out by the current registration advantages Democrats have in Onondaga County.  Democrats have a significant advantage with 117,240 registrants (38%).  The GOP has 83,366 registrants (27%) but is actually 3^rd in the county behind non-enrolled voters at 85,858 (28%).  Conservatives at 5,127 (2%) and Working Families at 1,277 (>1%) are the two other recognized parties.  They are dwarfed though by the 13,979 voters who are enrolled in now defunct parties or truly minor lines.  I classify Onondaga County into 5 main regions.  First is the City of Syracuse a major blue leaning city in the middle.  The Eastern Democratic towns (Dewitt, Manlius & Salina) that make up the biggest swath of Democratic voters outside the City of Syracuse.  The Northern Towns of Cicero, Clay, & Lysander that are more conservative leaning in local years.  The Western Towns of Camillus, Elbridge, Geddes, Onondaga, and Van Buren which swing from year to year and candidate to candidate.  Finally, we have the agrarian southern towns of Fabius, Lafayette, Marcellus, Otisco, Pompey, Skaneateles, & Tully that are some of the most consistently GOP dominated towns in our county. In terms of voter population the Northern towns have the most registered voters at 82,123 (27%) followed by the City of Syracuse 71,510 (23%), the Eastern towns 65,063 voters (21%), the Western Towns 61,257 (20%) and the southern towns 26,894 (9%).

Registrations in Onondaga County are once again nearing the all-time high.  I have data going back to 1996 from the State Board.   Our current Registration as of this last week is 306,847 voters.  Our all-time high is 308,296 voters going into the Presidential election of 2020.  We have yet to do our National Change of Address and mail check cards this year which could take significant voters off the rolls.  However we are seeing that the patterns of high registration rates we saw between 2016 and 2020 are holding true for this cycle.  It may be that the old patterns of falling registrations in between Presidential cycles are broken when the advent of DMV online registrations in 2016.  With general online voter registration and automatic voter registrations coming this year we could see a massive increase of registrations going into the 2024 election.

If we look at the history of Onondaga County in registration we see the dramatic change this county has undertaken.  In 1996 this was a solidly GOP county with a major Republican advantage.  In 2008 Democrats overtook them in registrations during the Obama election.  Since 1996 Democrats have gained 31,540 voters while the GOP has lost 22,756 voters.  The non-enrolled have gained 13,292 voters in that time frame.  The data indicates that Democrats are gaining with newer voters, whether younger or transplants while the GOP voter base is aging and moving out of the area or passing away.  In addition, since 2016 we have seen large shifts to the non-enrolled base, possibly from disaffected GOP.  In 2021 the Non-enrolled finally overtook the GOP county wide and is now firmly in 2^nd place.

The regional breakdowns of Onondaga County show that Democrats don’t just have opportunities in the city.  There is growing influence in the suburbs as well.  Syracuse is by far the bluest of the county.  The Eastern towns is where Democrats also do well when running county wide.  The southern towns, though small, tilt so heavily red they are able to influence close county races.  The Western and Northern towns as a whole are swing towns when looked at collectively.  However next week we will dive into the individual regions we will see some towns are red and some blue and a few truly swing towns.

If we really look into the partisan spread of Onondaga County there is some interesting data.  We see that the Democrats were gaining in influence gradually in Onondaga County right up to 2008.  It then seemed to kick into second gear during Obama’s first term (2008-2012) growing by over 235%.  It started to stall in Obama’s second term (2012-2016) gaining just over 40%.  The Trump years (2016-2020) gave a jump start to the Democratic enrollment advantage growing by nearly 50%.  However, since 2020 Democrats have only grown their advantage by a little over 2% and there are signs of stagnation and even a slight dip as of late.

Finally its time to look at the comparative races for Onondaga County.  In this section I will see how a political subdivision does when compared to some races from the past few years,  The four control races I will use in every political subdivision are the 2022 Governor year (moderate Dem result), the 2021 Supreme Court (small Dem result), the 2020 Presidential (major Dem result), and the 2019 County Clerk race (small GOP result).  I also look at the previous results in races in the subdivision, so I added in the 2019 County Executive, Comptroller, and District Attorney results as well.  Here we see Onondaga County outpaced the average result in New York for the Governor’s race.  We also see that Biden crushed Onondaga County as well.  Higher turnout elections and the county tends to be blue.  However lower turnout elections does not necessarily prove doom for the right candidate.  Brindisi for Supreme Court in 2021 and Masterpole for comptroller in 2019 shows that Democrats can win.  Certainly McMahon’s county executive race is a solid GOP win, it was also the worst a GOP County Executive candidate has performed.  Likewise the 2020 County Clerk race shows a closer than expected result with the Democrat virtually having no campaign at all.  Finally the DA’s race has the widest margin for a Republican beating a Democrat in the last 26 county wide races, however it is also one of the smallest majorities seen in 2019 due to a 3^rd party candidate.  This shows a possible opening for a Democrat who can also attract conservative support.

That does it for my first look at 2023.  Next week I will delve into the towns of Onondaga County as I take a look at the general performance of the voters outside the City of Syracuse.  We will look at the overall trends of the towns as a group and some insights to the regional and individual tendencies.  Subscribe to dustinczarny.com for all content and election news updates.

Welcome back to the #WeeklyWonk. Each weekend I release an article on a subject relating to elections in Onondaga County and New York State. Often these articles will have detailed stats to consume but sometimes they will be a recap of a prominent issue or on relevant election law. I previously broke down each election in four parts but since the 2022 General Election did not get certified until December 21, 2022, I am a little behind. So, for the 2022 General I am breaking my lookbacks into two parts. Last week I did Part 1 Alternative Voting Methods (Early, Absentee & Affidavit voting). This week I conclude with Part 2:  Election Day and Overall Turnout.

We started General Election 2022 with 304,495 voters. Overall, 171,212 ballots were cast in the 2022 Election. That results in 56.23% turnout. This is the second highest mid-term election turnout since 2009 besting 2010, & 2014 but a little behind the record year of 2018. Overall, 65,995 Democrats showed up making up 39% of the electorate. They were followed by the GOP (55,936, 33%) non-enrolled (38,346, 22%), Other (7108, 4%) that are mostly former Independence voters, Conservatives (3,392, 4%), and Working Families (435, <1%). Its notable that the third parties of CON and WFP have much fewer registered voters who vote than votes cast on their lines.

Election Day voting was a remarkably different makeup than the alternative voting again this year. Democrats dominated Early and Absentee voting as we saw last week. The Election Day makeup was more even with 44,258 Democrats & 44,047 GOP checking in on Election Day both making up 35% each of the Election Day Electorate. They were followed by non-enrolled (28,862, 23%) and third-party voters (8,623 7%). There were more Election Day voters in 2022 (125,793) than in 2020 (121,044) despite significant lower turnout. However, that is because 2020 had a high percentage of EV and Absentee voters due to the COVID 1-19 crisis. If we ignore 202 as an anomaly this would be the third straight year that Election Day voting decreased as it was only 73.5% of the overall electorate. We are seeing that Election Day voting is decreasing among the populace in terms of percentage of the overall electorate of each election.

The top ten polling places on Election Day for the first time since I have been analyzing these elections are all in the suburbs. The North Syracuse School District offices was number 1 with 2684 check ins followed by St. Joseph’s Parish Center at number 2 with 2295 check ins. Both polling places were taking on extra voters due to losses of other polling places. We are looking at re-establishing more polling places to help them next year. Marcellus Fire House (2034), Gillette Road Middle School (2003), Manlius Village Center (1952), Buckley Road Baptist Church (1913), Camillus Elks Lodge (1838), E. Syracuse Fire Station (1720), Camillus Municipal Building (1669), & Baldwinsville Public Library (1639) round out the polling places on Election Day.

The hour-by-hour Election Day check ins for 2022 have the typical Election Day pattern. Starting off light in the morning then building to a small lunch rush. Then it dips again until the post work dinner rush which is the biggest portion of the day. It then drops sharply going into the close of polls at 9pm. 2020 of course was the anomaly with large voter check-ins in the morning. That paired with higher alternative voting percentages resulted in 2022 outpacing 2020 from 10am and after on Election Day. Luckily outside of moderate lines in North Syracuse our Election teams were able to process voters with little reported lines.

As we look at the regional breakdown for overall voting, we start to get a hint because Democrats had a decent election in Onondaga County, they could have been better. The City of Syracuse is the bluest area in Central New York. Despite the City of Syracuse only being about ¼ of the county its heavy blue makeup is vital for Democratic electoral chances. Unfortunately, only 41.31% of the voters of the City of Syracuse turned out. Compare that to 60.75% of the towns of Onondaga County turning out and we see a glaring difference. In fact, the 19.44% difference in turnout is the largest I show on record since 2009. Democrats will need to re-energize and implement a better GOP plan in the city to be successful.

It was not just regional issues hurting Democrats in Onondaga County, it was voter enthusiasm. Sixty-eight percent of Onondaga County GOP voters turned out in 2022. That is just under the turnout percentage they had last midterm. Democrats however had just 57% of their electorate turnout. While Democrats always lag the GOP in turnout percentage as the GOP electorate is older and more likely to turn out, the 11% differential is the worst since 2014. Even worse was the turnout % of non-enrolled voters who only showed up at 45%. The difference between them and the top spot of 23% was the worst since at least 2009. Democrats destroy their enrollment advantage by not turning out at the same rate of the GOP and when the non-enrolled do not show up as well it makes electoral victories harder.

With this #WeeklyWonk I end my look back at 2022. Next week I will start to look at the 2023 registration data. I will start out by looking at Onondaga County as a whole. 2023 is our County wide election year with County Executive, County Comptroller, County Clerk, and District Attorney are on the ballot. Tune in next week to see how the registration of our home looks as we start to get into the 2023 calendar year.

Subscribe to dustinczarny.com for all content and election news updates.

Welcome back to the #WeeklyWonk.  Each weekend I release an article on a subject relating to elections in Onondaga County and New York State.  Often these articles will have detailed stats to consume but sometimes they will be a recap of an important issue or election law.  This week is part 1 of my lookback at the 2022 General Election in Onondaga County.  I used to break down each election in four parts but since the 2022 General Election did not get certified until December 21, 2022, I am a little behind.  So, for the 2022 General I am breaking my lookbacks into two parts:  Part 1 Alternative Voting Methods (Early, Absentee & Affidavit voting) and Part 2 Election Day and Overall Turnout.  This week I will do Part 1:  Alternative Voting Methods (Early, Absentee & Affidavit voting).

In the 2022 General Election we saw 170,958 voters.  Of the four voting methods Election Day remained the most popular, with 125,793 voters or 74%.  Early Voting had 31,694 voters or 18%.  There were 11,796 absentee voters or 7%.  Additionally, 1675 voters or 1% cast their ballot by Affidavit ballot.   The voting breakdown by party for Absentee and Early voting continues to skew to the Democratic party.  Democrats make up 38% of the General Election populace but was 47% of the Early Vote and 51% of the Absentee vote.  However, this is not a case of the GOP underperforming.  The GOP made up 27% of the General Election populace and were 26% of the Early Vote and 26% of the Absentee.  The drop off in usage is among non-enrolled voters who make up 28% of the voting population but only 22% of the Early Vote and 19% of the absentee. 

We now have four full years of data for Early Voting.  This mirrors our 4-year Election cycle we have in New York and Onondaga County.  2019 was a County Executive Year, 2020 a Presidential election, 2021 a City of Syracuse Mayoral year, and 2022 a mid-term Governor election.  In terms of overall turnout Presidential is always the highest turnout and in 2020 EV was the highest in raw vote and percentage of overall turnout.  2022 being a midterm was second in raw totals and percentage of overall turnout as expected.  However, 2021 was a substantially lower turnout than 2019 yet Early Voting was a higher raw and percentage of the overall turnout.  Now we have a full four-year cycle we can track the next four years of Early voting to similar years.

This year in Onondaga County we had 10 Early voting sites for the General Election.  The usual suspects Dewitt Town Hall (23%) Clay Town Hall (20%) and Camillus Town Hall (15%) led the turnout.  These have started to become the top tier of Early Voting site.  In the next tier we have 3 new Sites, Lysander Municipal (9%), North Syracuse Community Center (8%) OCC Mulroy Hall (7%) joining Armond Magnarelli (7%).  The bottom tier of Lafayette Fire station (6%) Syracuse Community Connections (3%) is joined by newcomer Beauchamp Library (2%).  What expanding to ten sites allowed us to do is to lessen the impacts to our top sites.  We were able to spread out the usage to other EV sites and reduce the share of voters that went to Dewitt, Clay, and Camillus.

Unlike Early Voting we have decent data on Absentee ballots going back to 2009.  2022 saw the highest non-presidential year in terms of absentee ballots sent (14585) and returned (11796).  In fact, the absentee requested in 2022 outnumbered the 2012 Presidential election.  This made up 6.9% of the overall turnout which is the second highest percentage.  It is obvious that covid Concerns is what is driving absentee ballot usage.  We saw a pretty solid usage of 4% in low turnout years and 6% in high turnout years like 2012, 2016, & 2018.  The year that absentees dropped to the lowest usage was 2019 at 3.52% with the introduction of Early Voting.  However, the pandemic saw massive usage of 24.96% in 2020.  2021 saw the largest percentage (6.38%) for a nonfederal year.  The question is whether this will revert to pre-pandemic levels as the pandemic excuse ends this next year or will we continue to see an increase in people using the available excuses to take advantage of this method going forward.

The last alternative form of voting is Affidavit balloting.  1675 voters successfully cast ballots via affidavit ballots in 2022 while another 219 attempted to cast affidavits but were ultimately ruled invalid.  This was the highest number of valid affidavits outside of a presidential election.  The 88.44% valid rate in 2022 is second only to the 91.96% in 2021.  We have had an increased emphasis in our training sessions on helping voters cast valid affidavits and our rising acceptance rate is reflective of that.  The adoption of Electronic Poll Books County wide is not only leading to more valid affidavits but also less affidavits overall.  The Poll Books can help inspectors send voters to the right polling place or determine whether they need a court order.

Finally, I wanted to look at how the voting methods in terms of percentage of overall vote has changed overall through the years.  New York, up until 2019, was a primary Election Day in Person state.  Election Day made up 92%-96% of the vote every year.  Tin 2022 it was only 7.58% of the vote.  This has been what advocates like me have theorized when Early Voting and more expansive absentee regulations were adopted.  Over time we will see more and more New Yorkers use these methods.  Obviously 2020 was an exception due to the raging VODI crisis, but if we look at the other years, we see a growing increase in alternative voting.  In 2019 11.39% of the electorate chose either EV or absentee, it grew to 49.04% during the 2020 election, in 2021 16.69% chose absentee or EV, and in 2022 25.44%.  Throwing out 2020 we see continued increase in alternative voting.  If this pattern holds, we could see 2020 become more the norm in just a few years rather than the outlier.

That is, it for this week’s #WeeklyWonk.  Next week I will finish up my look back at the 2022 General Election with looking at Election Day voting and statistics on overall turnout.  Tune in each week to learn a little more about elections in Onondaga County.  Remember to subscribe to dustinczarny.com for content and election news updates.