Welcome back to Wonky Wednesday.  Each week I do a deep dive into the election and registration data that makes up the electoral landscape of our home, Onondaga County.  I hope by looking into this data we can glean that this everchanging county is not monolithic as once thought and competition for Democrats, and all registrations, can be found everywhere.  This week start my #Fliptheleg series looking at each of the 17 Onondaga County Legislative races.  Today I look at Onondaga County Legislative seat #6.

In 2011 this seat was represented by James Rinehart the chairman of the state legislature.  This seat was seen as a forever GOP controlled district comprising of some of the more conservative parts of the county.  The GOP majority on the redistricting commission only added a few eds in Camillus to the district as All districts needed to pick up some population, but generally it avoided the weird shapes other districts were forced into. After redistricting was done Rinehart did not run for re-election.

OCL 6 is still generally seen as one of the more GOP dominated districts, registration wise, in Onondaga County. Republicans account for 36% of the district while Democrats make up just 30%.  Non-enrolled voters account for 26% of the registered voters. There are 5 towns represented in OCL 6 making it one of the larger land mass districts in the county.  A portion of Camillus makes up the plurality of the district at 34% and the town of Skaneateles being the other major population center at 28%.  Marcellus at 23%, Otisco at 9% and Spafford at 6% make up the rest of the district.

While this has been seen as a mostly republican district, Democrats have been making steady gains in this district.  Democrats have gained 989 voters since the last redistricting while the GOP has lost 553 voters,  Of course the non-enrolled has grown as well gaining  764 voters.  Though Democrats started from a pretty bad place registration wise the changing demographics of the suburbs have given Democrats a chance in this once blood red district.

We can see that the Camillus portion of the district is the Democratic portion of not just OCL 6 but the town of Camillus itself.  Though Camillus voter registration is driving some of the tightening in the district, we noted earlier that the towns of Skaneateles and Marcellus have seen a tightening of the registrations there.  This means that the general gop lean of the district is starting to be chipped away at. Otisco and Spafford remain pretty republican but are also very small towns and dwarfed by the bigger portions in the district.

Michael Plochocki succeeded James Rinehart by winning a closer than expected election in 2011.  Toby Shelley came within a few hundred votes of defeating him and flipping this district.  In 2013 the Democrats let Plochocki go unchallenged.  In 2015 Plochocki easily won re-election against Susan Scheurman.  In 2017 Joe Paduda mounted a stronger challenge significantly doing better than Democrats had done in a while.  As is the custom with County Government when a county lawmaker is challenged electorally, the County Executive hires them to a top paying county job, in this case a Plochocki assumed created position with the County Attorney.  Current representative Julie Abbott Keenan was named to replace Plochocki and easily beat Susan Scheurman in 2019 in her 2^nd run for office.

The comparative aces show a district that bucks its partisan registration lean.  While in 2019 the distractive supported the GOP by double digits in the County Executive Race and County Clerk, there was a huge drop off for Matt Beadnell for County Comptroller.  In 2020 this GOP dominant district voted for John Mannion for Senate by a razor thin 2% and Joe Biden by over 9 points.  However, for congress John Katko won re-election by 15 points.  This indicates the non-enrolled voters are swing voters and reject more Trumpian conservative members.  This gives the Democrats an opportunity in OCL 6 if they can take advantage of the changing demographics as well as the swing nature of the district

The Democratic nominee for County Legislature in the 6th district is Diane Dwire.  Diane is a retired nurse and is well known in the district for her two Assembly runs and a former member of the Village and Town of Camillus boards.  As a health care professional and Democracy advocate she will also be looking to press Abbott-Keenan on her breaking her pledge on redistricting and voting against adding healthcare workers in a pandemic.  To follow Diane Dwire and help her campaign find her on Facebook at www.facebook.com/DianeForCountyLeg.  

Welcome back to Wonky Wednesday.  Each week I do a deep dive into the election and registration data that makes up the electoral landscape of our home, Onondaga County.  I hope by looking into this data we can glean that this everchanging county is not monolithic as once thought and competition for Democrats, and all registrations, can be found everywhere.  This week start my #Fliptheleg series looking at each of the 17 Onondaga County Legislative races.  Today I look at Onondaga County Legislative seat #5 covering parts of Cicero Salina, Dewitt and Syracuse.

In 2011 this seat was represented by Kathleen Rapp.  Kathleen Rapp was the majority leader of the County legislature and viewed as a safe seat.  That is why it is not surprising  the GOP majority on the redistricting commission altered this district to make it more Democratic.  Taking out moderate election districts in Dewitt and Salina and replacing them with Syracuse city districts is how this district got its weird shape .  Nicknamed the crab by the Post Standard the thought was to put city districts paired with moderate Salina and conservative Cicero districts and protect this seat from Democratic hands with the power of a popular incumbent.

This redistricting effort has long term consequences. OCL 5 now has a moderate Democratic enrollment advantage with 35% of registered voters Democrat and 28% are Republican and 29% non-enrolled.  Though slightly more conservative than the other Salina district, OCL 4, here the non-enrolled have overtaken the GOP again. Salina has most of the district making up 52% of the enrollment while Cicero 34%, Syracuse 10%, and the single ED of Dewitt that remains has 4%.  

The Demographic changes to the Suburbs along with the 2010 redistricting have really given the Democrats a recent advantage in the district. Democrats have grown their plurality adding 476 voters since 2009, the GOP has lost 303 since that time.  The non-enrolled has grown the most adding 991 voters.  Even though the GOP had a modest increase in voters in 2020, the current enrollment is showing a decided drop off since last year while Dems and Non-enrolled have grown. This shows the Democratic growth trend we have seen is continuing.

Gerrymandering is not a new phenomenon, and it didn’t just happen in 2010.  This district has always seen the Democratic portion of Salina paired moderate portions of Dewitt and the very conservative leaning Cicero.  However, the Democratic growth of the suburbs that we have seen since 2016 has had a dramatic effect on the neighborhood.  In face only the single ED of Dewitt has a GOP lean while Syracuse and Salina portions of the district. Even the Cicero portion now has a small Democratic plurality.  This district is the typical gerrymandered district that overtime loses the original partisan lean to and is ripe for a flip.

Kathleen Rapp, the majority leader easily won her 2009 race so it was thought she could add Democratic voters and not be seen as vulnerable.  In fact, in 2011 the Democrats decided to let her run unopposed.  However, in 2013 a conservative candidate ran on the Democratic line and almost toppled Rapp.  Rapp did go on to handily beat her next opponent Bryan Seaman.  However in 2019 Rapp took a controversial early retirement buyout that was poorly worded by the GOP administration and majority.  Seamans had a closer race against current County Legislator Debb Cody who was basically running as an incumbent having been appointed to the vacancy.  She went on to beat Jessica Bumpus in 2019 by a similar margin.

This district is a little more conservative than its other Salina counterpart OCL 4.  In our comparative races we see that the County Executive and County Clerk races did well here in 2019.  There was some contraction in the Comptroller race meaning the district does react against more Trumpian like candidates.  In 2020 a double-digit loss for the Democrats in congress was typical. However, in the two senate races in the district Democrats edged out their GOP opponents.  Biden won by over 7 points.  This shows there is some elasticity in swing voters and the challenge

Current County legislature 5 representative is running again.  She used to work with the NY Senate in DeFrancisco and Antonacci’s office but now works as the Executive Director for the County GOP.  The Democratic nominee for County Legislature in the 5th district is Jana Rodgers.  This is her first run for public office but has but has already won a primary for the WFP line and outraised her opponent in the July filings.  She is a lifelong teacher and school administrator who has been active in her union.  He can be found on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/JanaRogersforCountyLeg5 Follow her campaign to learn how to help.

Welcome back to Wonky Wednesday.  Each week I do a deep dive into the election and registration data that makes up the electoral landscape of our home, Onondaga County.  I hope by looking into this data we can glean that this everchanging county is not monolithic as once thought and competition for Democrats, and all registrations, can be found everywhere.  This week start my #Fliptheleg series looking at each of the 17 Onondaga County Legislative races.  Today I look at Onondaga County Legislative seat #4.

In 2011 this seat was represented by newcomer Judy Tassone. In 2009 Judy Tassone won election to this seat winning by less than 200 votes to Dave Stott. In fact more people voted for Dave Stott on the Democratic line.   The GOP majority on the redistricting commission altered this district drastically giving it a signature  weird shape , the 2011 maps were famous for.  In an effort to keep this district in GOP hands they removed the portion from Clay that was more Democratic and snaked it around Onondaga Lake to put more GOP votes into the district.  They also portioned a small chuck of the City of Syracuse to dilute the Democratic votes in the city.  This brought Tassone enough votes to survive re-election in 2011, though it was only by 50 votes.  However the motive was clear, fight the demographic changes happening in Salina by adding more conservative Geddes to the mix.

Despite the redistricting effort, Demographic change continues.  OCL 4 has a moderate Democratic enrollment advantage with 36% of registered voters Democrat and 28% are Republican and 28% non-enrolled.  In fact the last two years the non-enrolled has overtaken the GOP in the district.  Salina dominates the district making up 78% of the enrollment while Geddes has 13% and 9% of the district lives in the City of Syracuse.

The Demographic changes to this district were muted a bit by the addition of the Lakeview portion of Geddes.  That is until the suburban changes so common throughout Onondaga started in 2015.  Partially a reaction to Trump and partially an exodus of City residents OCL 4 Democrats showed remarkable rise from 2016 till today.  The GOP actually stayed stable during this time period but their lack of growth has led to third place in the district.  A tsunami of non-enrolled voters in 2020 for the Presidential race caused them to overtake the GOP and remain on top of them today.

The Salina portion dominates the district in voters and drives the enrollment for Democrats.  This follows a long trend of Salina as a whole becoming more Democratic. The Lakeview portion of Geddes continues to act as GOP stronghold muting the enrollment advantages for Democrats in Salina and Syracuse.  However OCL 4 is one of those districts that in a wave election or with the right candidate and an open seat tip Democratic as the GOP advantage in the shape of the district in 2011 has all but been erased.

As noted before Judy Tassone barely survived her re-election in 2011, but has had easier elections since then.  In 2013 and 2015 she easily handled her Democratic challengers. So much so the Democrats did not field a challenger in 2017.  In 2019 Kathy Zabinski ran a solid race against her.  In fact she came within a dozen votes on just the Democratic and GOP lines, however the third party designations brought Tassone over the top and Zabinski’s lack of a 2^nd line hurt her.  It should be noted this will be an open seat in 2021 as Tassone has not sought re-election and Zabinski is running for Town Supervisor.

With an open seat the importance of how this district reacts in other races comes to the forefront.  In 2019 this district gave a moderate advantage to McMahon, less than his win percentage overall in his County executive race.  Dell winning at 5% for County Clerk was about equal to her overall. Beadnell losing the district by less than a percentage point shows the elasticity of the district even in a low turnout year.  In 2020 the district performed even better for Democrats.  Biden winning the district by over 16% is surprising and the NYS Senate Democrats Mannion split OCL 4 however the district still voted nearly 8% for the Democrats combined.  Even Congressional totals in 2020 are a boon for Democrats.  ON the surface Dana Balter lost by a little over 3% points.  However there were enough votes on the WFP line for placeholder name gone awry she actually won this district.  This is one of the few suburban communities to not give Katko 50%.

After Judy Tassone decided not to seek re-election the GOP chose Colleen Gunnip, the current supervisor of Salina.  Gunnip avoided a primary for this seat as a well timed job opened up for her GOP opponent just days before having to declare her candidacy for office.  The Democratic nominee for County Legislature in the 4th district is Stephon Williams.  This is his first run for public office but has received national endorsements from Run For Something and looks to make a splash in this district.  He can be found on Facebook at facebook.com/StephonForChange, on Twitter at https://twitter.com/Stephon4change or on the web at https://stephonforchange.com/ .  Follow his campaign to learn how to help.