“She pointed to a report written by Onondaga County Board of Elections Commissioner Dustin Czarny on Liverpool on how November elections boosted turnout in other villages.”
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Early voting for the 2024 primary is starting soon. Here’s what you need to know – WRVO
“We haven’t seen that in the absentees and early vote by mail request yet, so you know, it’s looking like a normal turnout, but something could happen in the next few days,” Czarny said. “Elections are weird and we’ll be prepared.”
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Shall we switch to November? – Eagle News Online
Eight years ago, the county board of elections made it possible for all villages to move to November elections if they chose to.
“If a village moved their election, they could save 100 percent of the cost of running an election as opposed to March and June,” Czarny said.
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Commissioner in a Car: Early Voting starts Saturday for the June Primary
This week’s pod I talk about the start of #EarlyVoting in Onondaga County for the June Primary. Democrats throughout our county will select their nominee for Congress, Democrats will also select their nominee for SD 50, Republicans will select their nominee for SD48, and Republicans in Town of Lysander will select their nominee for Town Board. Get early voting and candidate information at onvote.net.
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Early Voting for Primary Election Begins June 15 – NCC News
“You can go to any site,” said Onondaga County Elections Commissioner Dustin Czarny. “If you live close to a site, you can go to it. If you’re working somewhere you want to go to another or driving or bouncing errands and decide to go to another site, you can do that.”
In-person early voting runs from June 15 to June 23 and is open every day from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m., except on Tuesday and Wednesday, when polls will be open from noon to 8 p.m.
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The Weekly Wonk: NY Assembly District 126 2024
Welcome back to the #weeklywonk. In this space I try to shed light on the forces that make up the body politic in New York and Onondaga County. Each week I will look at electoral and registration data that make up a political subdivision or an election event. I continue my look at political subdivisions that will make up the General Election 2024. This week I investigated the only state legislative seat in Onondaga County, Assembly District 126.
NY Assembly District 126 has 95,718 active voters as of June 2024. Democrats make up 28,922 voters or 31% of the active registered voters of the district. The GOP makes up the plurality with 33,403 voters (36%). The non-enrolled are third with 26,201 voters (28%). The GOP has a +4.68% enrollment advantage. NYAD 126 is divided into parts of two counties, Cayuga, and Onondaga. The Cayuga portion is the part of the southern portion of the county and is 30% of the assembly district (28,648 voters). The Onondaga is the Western and southern towns and make up 70% of the assembly district.
The Central NY Assembly districts were redistricted in 2022 by the Assembly, and then again in 2023 by the NYIRC by court order. However, the second round of maps were similar to the 2022 maps. Redistricting added Democrats and non-enrolled to the district. Since 2021 Democrats gaining just 1,448 voters, the GOP gained just 430 voters, and the non-enrolled gaining the most with 3,736 voters. Most of those gains came in 2022 during redistrict with Democrats and the Gop basically being in stagnation since, though the non-enrolled continues to gain.
The two counties’ portions are a little different, but it may surprise some to find out that the Cayuga County portion is the more Democratic portion of the district. The Onondaga County Portion has a +6.90-percentage lean toward the GOP. The non-enrolled in the Onondaga portion are closing in on the Democrats. In the Cayuga portion the Democrats have a slight 0.52% lead with Democrats and GOP virtually tied with the non-enrolled in third.
When an Assembly district crosses county lines, we lose the ability to look at a few of our comparative races but we can still look at the 2022 Governor’s race and 2020 Presidential race. In 2020 Biden won this town by 2.4% but that was down 9.15% from his statewide totals. However, Lee Zeldin won this Assembly District by 9.69%. Democrats have not performed well in the last three Assembly races for this district. The lost by 12.97% in 2018, 13.57% in 2020, and 15.46% in 2022.
Last year I introduced heat maps as a way of showing the complex makeup of the political subdivisions that will have races this year. #AD126 is one of the more homogenous districts we have. Only the City of Auburn is solidly in the blue (Dem +10-15%). The town of Camillus is light purple indicating a borderline Dem lean (Dem 0-5%). The town of Owasco is dark purple with a borderline GOP lean (GOP 0-5%). The rest of the towns have a GOP lean. The towns in pink (Lysander, Marcellus, Pompey, Skaneateles, Throop, and Tully) have a slight GOP lean (GOP 5-10%). The towns in red (Elbridge, Lafayette, & Sennett) have a solid GOP lean (GOP 10-15%). The towns in burgundy (Brutus, Conquest, Mentz, Spafford) have a strong GOP lean (GOP 15-20%). Finally, the towns in dark red (Cato & Otisco) have an overwhelming Gop lean (GOP +20%).
This year in addition to the heat map I looked at the number of towns that lean to each party and the border towns. Here the makeup of the Assembly district both in number of jurisdictions and in population is decidedly red. 16 Towns with 59,045 voters are lean GOP representing 61.7% of the voters in the district. Only two towns with 21,880 voters representing 22.9% of the voters in the district are in borderline towns. Only the City of Auburn with 17,787 voters and 15.4% of the district is the only subdivision with a Democratic lean.
There is no primary in Assembly District 126 meaning the matchup is set. Assemblyman John Lemondes is the incumbent and is running on the Republican and Conservative line. The Democrats have nominated Ian Phillips, a former teacher, NYSUT union member, and Auburn school board president. Ian will have to consolidate Democratic support as well as win over the non-enrolled and even some GOP votes to win this seat. You can follow his campaign on his website https://www.ianforcny.com/
That is, it for this week’s edition of the #WeeklyWonk. Next week I will start my look at the Assembly Districts having races in Onondaga County. First up is Assembly district 127, represented by Al Stirpe. As always you can find it on dustinczarny.com where you can subscribe for email notifications for content and election news updates.
Zoom with Czarny: Steve Williams on the Trump Convictions
Today I sit down with Steve Williams, a former federal prosecutor, congressional candidate, and Partner with Smith Sovak. His background gives us great insight into the 34 felony convictions handed down last week to former president Donald Trump. Enjoy. Find out more about Steve here:
https://smithsovik.com/attorney/steven-ward-williams/
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Commissioner in a Car: 2 Elections in June.
Today i talk about the June Village Elections on June 18th and the June federal and local primaries on June 25th. Liverpool Village residents will be able to choose for two uncontested village trustees and and a proposition to move village elections to November. Onondaga County Democrats will choose a nominee for congress and in SD 50, and republicans will choose a nominee in sd 48 on June 25th. Check it out.
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The Weekly Wonk: Village of Liverpool 2024
.Welcome back to the #weeklywonk. In this space I try to shed light on the forces that make up the body politic in New York and Onondaga County. Each week I will look at electoral and registration data that make up a political subdivision or an election event. I continue my look at political subdivisions that will make up the General Election 2024. This week I investigate the sole village having a June election this year, the village of Liverpool.
The Village of Liverpool has 1,710 active voters making ranking it 8 out of 15 villages in Onondaga County. Democrats make up 674 voters or 39% of the active registered voters making it the plurality of the district. The GOP has just 425 voters (25%). The non-enrolled are in second place with 503 voters (29%). The Democrats have a +14.54% enrollment advantage. There are only two Election districts that make up Liverpool. Election District 3 is the west portion of the village with 979 voters (58%). Election District 4 is the eastern portion of the village with 719 voters (42%).
The Village of Liverpool was once a GOP stronghold but has transformed tremendously since 2009. This once blood red Village is now dominated by Democrats. The GOP has now fallen to third place behind the non-enrolled. Like other areas of the county the Democrats had a dramatic rise during the Trump’s Presidency from 2016 to 2020 Democrats gaining 100 voters, the Gop gained just 12 voters and the non-enrolled gained 79 voters. Since 2021 Democrats continued gaining 46 voters, the GOP has lost 77 voters, and the non-enrolled gained 21 voters.
The two different regions of Liverpool lean to the Democrats. Liverpool is divided down the center with Election District 3 to the west, and Election District 4 to the east. Both eds have Democrats in the lead, followed by the non-enrolled and the GOP in third. Election District 3 has a +14.30% to the Democrats and ed 4 has +14.87% to the Democrats.
It’s a new year and we have a new addition to our four comparative races, though it will feel slightly familiar. In addition to the Presidential race of 2020, the Supreme Court race of 2021, the Governor’s race of 2022, we will look at the County Clerk race of 2023 to compare how it performed in the political subdivision we are investigating. This replaces the 2019 County Clerk race, but we can now compare those races as well. This village not only is dominated by the Democrats in registration but in performance as well. In 2020 Biden won this town by 28.72%. Democrats also won the village of Liverpool in the 2021 Supreme Court (+22.68%), 2022 Governor (+26.75%), & 2023 County Clerk race (+21.53%), and. However, another promising sign for Democrats is the electoral chances seem to be improving. When comparing the 2019 County Clerk race to the 2023 County Clerk race Democrats did +6.53% better. The Democrats also won the control of the Town Board in 2023 as well as the Village Mayor winning that race by 12.06%.
Last year I introduced heat maps as a way of showing the complex makeup of the political subdivisions that will have races this year. The village of Liverpool has only 2 Eds and they both fall into the solid Democratic camp (Dem +10-15%).
One final data point I wanted to bring to this #weeklywonk is a reminder of the results when previous village elections moved to November. Since 2016 four villages oved their elections from March to November, Solvay, E. Syracuse, and Tully in 2016 and Elbridge in 2019. I decided to compare votes cast in the races before the change and after. This is not voter turnout, but actual votes cast in village wide races. All four villages not only saw dramatic turnout in the first election, but it was also sustained after. Solvay saw a +38.64% increase in its Mayoral elections. E. Syracuse saw a +88.27% increase in its Mayoral election. Even non-contested elections had massive turnout increases. Tully and Elbridge had +762.5% and +812% increases. This is why Syracuse.com issued an editorial endorsing the moves in 2023, as they did in 2016. It is also why Baldwinsville (54.89%) and Fayetteville (60.67%) voters overwhelmingly decided to move their village elections to November in March.
The are two village board races up in June as well as however they are unopposed by the Democrats. Part of the reason for that was the timeline for finding village candidates was truncated with June elections. However, village voters will have a chance to move their elections to November. Proposition 1 will allow voters to move the village elections to November and save 100% of future election costs while boosting turnout and the ability to recruit candidates.
That is, it for this week’s edition of the #WeeklyWonk. Next week I will start my look at the Assembly Districts having races in Onondaga County. First up is Assembly district 126, the only GOP held state legislative district in Onondaga County. As always you can find it on dustinczarny.com where you can subscribe for email notifications for content and election news updates.
Can Trump vote in November after his conviction?
I have seen a great deal of chatter on whether Donald Trump can or cannot vote now that he has been convicted. I have done a bit of research and talked to a few trusted colleagues, and this is what I have produced. In short, yes, he can until or unless he is actually incarcerated.
A few caveats before I begin, I am not a lawyer nor an expert in Florida election law. I have what I consider a good deal of familiarity with NY Election Law, which possibly comes into play here despite Trump being a Florida resident. Here is what I found.
First off There is a Florida AG opinion from 1977 that may play the most important role here that states that a defendant will not lose his voting rights in Florida until the appeals have run their course “”A conviction of felony in a trial court will not disqualify the defendant as an elector, candidate for office or office holder, when an appeal is prosecuted from such conviction, until the appeal is disposed of by the appellate court.”
https://www.myfloridalegal.com/ag-opinions/felony-conviction-on-appeal-voting
Donald Trump is a Florida resident so likely this opinion could come into play. However, Florida also defers to other states laws when a resident is tried and convicted in another State. That is where NYS law may come into play.
So, what does NY law say? 5-106.2 of NYS Election Law states this “No person who has been convicted of a felony and sentenced to a period of imprisonment for such felony pursuant to the laws of this state, shall have the right to register for or vote at any election while he or she is incarcerated for such felony.”
https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/ELN/5-106
A NY Voter must be convicted, sentenced, AND incarcerated to lose their voting rights in NY. Donald Trump has not been sentenced yet. That is scheduled to happen July 11, 2024, but could be delayed while appeals are ongoing. However, if it is not delayed, sentencing alone will not remove his voting rights in NY. He needs to physically be incarcerated.
If the sentencing happens and it includes incarceration it is likely that it will be delayed until the appeals are heard. That would mean under NY law Trump would be eligible to vote in NY, and conversely in Florida.
Unless and until Trump is actually sitting in a jail cell in the state of New York, he retains his voting rights in my opinion. The appeal process will likely happen well after Election Day, so yes, he will be able to vote for himself this November.
Thank you to my colleagues in Florida and New York who helped by giving me information whose names will remain anonymous if I have gotten this ridiculously wrong.
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Dustin M. Czarny 