Welcome back to the #weeklywonk. In this space I try to shed light on the forces that make up the body politic in New York and Onondaga County. Each week I will look at electoral and registration data that make up a political subdivision or an election event. I continue my look at political subdivisions that will make up the General Election 2024. This week I investigate the newly drawn, again, #NY 22.

The newly drawn #NY22 is decidedly Democratic in registration. The map as drawn by the NYS “Independent” Redistricting commission and enacted by a bi partisan vote of the NYS legislature is new for this election cycle and will last until the 2032 election cycle. There are 173,637 Democrats (36%), 144,054 GOP (30%), 130,295 non-enrolled (27%), 24,256 Other (5%), 8,367 Conservatives (2%), and 2,204 Working Families (<1%). There are five counties in the new #NY22 district. The entirety of Onondaga County is in the district and makes up 63% (305,929 voters) of the active registered voters of the district. The southeastern part of Oneida County below interstate 90 and makes up 17% (80,249) of the district. The entirety of Madison County is also in the district and makes up 9% (43,124). The southern part of Cayuga County including Auburn and below makes up 7% (32,445) of the district. Finally, the northern part of Cortland County above the city of Cortland makes up the last 4% (21,066) of the district.

All congressional district s in New York have undergone quite the journey over the last 12 years, specially so #NY22. In 2012 under the bi-partisan compromise this district, then named #NY24) was drawn to protect the incumbent Ann Marie Buerkle who previously won in the 2010 red wave election. This did not work for her as Dan Maffei won re-election in 2012, but John Katko won in 2014 and was able to hold the district until his retirement in 2022. The power of incumbency helped him overcome the demographics of Central New York, especially Onondaga County, had its effect on the district making it increasingly blue. The Special Master map of the last cycle stemmed that advance by adding more GOP into the district and stagnating the Democratic gains which resulted in a narrow victory for Brandon Williams. However, the new legislature map passed earlier this year reversed that map and once again seems to have moved the district back to its naturally tendency of growing Democratic district. In all since 2012, Democrats have gained 28,636 enrollments while the GOP has lost 496 enrollment and the non-enrolled is the biggest gainer with 28,948 just ahead of the Democrats.

The individual counties partisan rankings in the district vary. Onondaga County makes up not only the most populous portion of the district with a +11.01% enrollment advantage for Democrats and the GOP being outnumbered by the non-enrolled. On the other end of the partisan spectrum is Madison County where the GOP have a 12.74% enrollment advantage and the Non-enrolled and Democrats are battling for second place. The three counties that are only partly in the district are borderline on partisan advantage. The part of Oneida having a 2.36% enrollment advantage for Democrats. The parts of Cortland (.93%) and Cayuga (.95%) have negligible enrollment advantages for the GOP.

Because of the nature of the Congressional district, spanning five different counties there are only two races that we can use to have direct comparisons, 2020 US President & 2022 New York governor. Thanks to NY Redistricting and You we can see a comparison with how this newly drawn district would have voted in those two races if it existed along the lines drawn today. This district would have voted for Joe Biden by 11.6% in 2020. However, in the midterm year of 2022 Lee Zeldin actually won this district by 2.2% making it the definition of a swing district. I included the 2022, 2020, and 2018 congressional races in this slide as a comparison. These race totals were compiled on the district lines drawn for those races, as we cannot make a comparison to the new district. However, with Onondaga County making up so much of all three districts we can see comparisons. Katko was able to survive his last two elections with a majority of the vote, however only won 2018 by 5.26% over Dana Balter. He was more successful in fending off Dana Balter in 2020, but a paperwork error syphoned off part of her vote to a spoiler WFP candidate. If those totals are added back into her column Katko only have won that race by 6.3% a negligible increase from 2018. Brandon Williams in one of the best GOP years in New York in a long time, and on an arguably more favorable GOP map, barely won his election in 2022 by 0.98%.

To truly get an idea on where the new #ny22 might stand we can look at the shifts in the two comparative races under the last three enacted maps. In all three maps we see a district that performs better in Presidential years for Democrats that gubernatorial years. It is the margins that might matter here. Under the 2012-2021 lines the old #ny24 would have voted for Biden by 9.20% and Zeldin by 4.40%. The Special Master Map used in 2022 shifted both of these races to the right with Biden winning by just 7.60% and Zeldin winning by 6.4%. The newly enacted #NY22 shifts it back to the left with Biden winning 11.6% and Zeldin winning by just 2.2%. This is an approximate 4%-point shift in both races towards the Democrats.

Last year I introduced a new feature, the Heat map. In this graphic I try to show the different kaleidoscope of registration states inside a particularly political subdivision. For #NY22 I break the registration down by the Town and/or city registration advantage for either of the major political party. We see a district with major shifts in registration states. Democrats tend to dominate densely packed urban areas and the suburbs around them shift to slightly blue or borderline areas. The GOP dominates less populous areas of the district but to a greater extent. Their domination of these rural areas helps even out the Democratic domination of cities. Bright blue cities like Syracuse and Utica and to a lesser extent Auburn along with college towns like Cortland, Hamilton, and Kirkville paired with suburban towns like Salina, Dewitt, And Manlius stand out for Democrats but a large swat or borderline towns in Onondaga and some in other counties also have opportunity for them as well in a Presidential year.

When I introduced the heat maps last year there was always a general reaction. There was an illusion that the GOP, because of the larger land area where they had partisan advantage were the dominant force in any race. That is just not always true. In a new feature I look at the number of voters in a political subdivision in Democratic, Borderline, and Republican controlled areas. There are nine towns in #ny22 that have a 5% Democratic enrollment or better and they represent 196,376 voters or 40.7% of the district. 10 Towns make up borderline areas with less than 5% enrollment advantage for each party for 145,899 or 30.3%. Finally, fifty towns have a GOP enrolment advantage of 5% or more, but they only make up 139,809 voters or 29.0% of the district. The race for #ny22 will most likely be won in the borderline towns however lessening your opponent’s advantage in their strongholds is also part of the equation.

Democrats will have a primary on June 25^th between NY Senator John Mannion and Dewitt Town Councilor Sarah Klee Hood. The winner of which will go on to face incumbent Republican first-year congressperson Brandon Williams. The shift of #NY22 leftward in redistricting along with the higher turnout promised in a Presidential year gives Democrats a tactical advantage, especially considering Brandon Williams won with less than 1% difference in 2022. However the power of incumbency and a united GOP party will be at Brandon Williams back this year, something he did not have in 2022. This likely makes it a remarkably close race and Democrats will have to quickly unite after the primary to have a chance to unseat him.

That is it for this edition of the #weeklywonk. Thank you to Dave’s Redistricting, NY Redistricting and you, the NYS Board of Elections, and the Onondaga, Cayuga, Cortland, Oneida, and Madison County Board of elections for providing the data within this week’s article. Next week I will take a look at NY Senate district fifty. This race has been the closest NY legislative race each of the last few cycles, but specially in 2022 when the winner won with ten votes. It is also the subject of a Democratic primary in June. As always you can subscribe to dustinczarny.com for all content and election news updates.

Welcome back to the #weeklywonk. In this space I try to shed some light on the forces that make up the body politic in New York and Onondaga County. Each week I will look at electoral and registration data that make up a political subdivision or an election event. This week I start my look at political subdivisions that will make up the General Election 2024. I start off with a look at New York State as we are electing a US Senator statewide in 2024.

It comes as no surprise that New York is an overwhelmingly Democratic state. When looking at the active voter registration compiled by the New York State Board of Elections in late February 2024 Democrats dominate the active voter rolls. There are 5,778,841 Democrats (49%) in New York. The GOP made up 2,695,185 voters (23%) which is actually third to the non-enrolled at 2,879,809 (24%). The Conservatives have 154,128 voters (1%) and Working Families have 50,048 voters (<1%) and 366,132 voters are enrolled in other various parties (3%). New York is generally thought of in three separate regions. New York City which has 4,519,781 voters (38%), the immediate suburbs consisting of Rockland, Westchester, Nassau, and Suffolk which has 2,835,419 voters (24%, and for lack of a better term upstate New York which has 4,568,943 voters (38%).

When looking at the partisan breakdown by region Democrats actually are in the lead in all three regions. In NYC Democrats dominate the enrollment there and the GOP are a distant third. Democrats have 3,013,471 voters, non-enrolled 924,891, GOP 465.681 and 115,738 in third parties. That is a +56.37% partisan enrollment advantage for Democrats. In the suburbs of Westchester, Rockland, Nassau, and Suffolk Democrats also have a significant advantage with 1,132,087 Democrats to 787,171, GOP, 777,135 Non-enrolled and 139,026 third parties. That is a Small +4.18% enrollment advantage for Democrats.

One of the more surprising reveals in this analysis is the upstate region has the most active registered voters, outnumbering New York City. In fact, looking back in registrations going back to 1996, tis is the first 2011 that has been the case. We have seen a steady three-year decline in voter registrations in NYC since 2021 while upstate has gained in that same time period. The suburbs during that time stayed relatively stable. This is not that surprising as urban areas in between presidential elections tend to lose voter registrations and gain in the Presidential year and year after. We will have to check in on the data in November.

 Another surprising data point is a decrease in Democratic enrollment over the last four years. The Trump presidency supercharged Democratic enrollment in New York, reaching a high of 6.189 million in 2020. Since then, the Democratic enrollment has dropped steadily each year down to 5.779 million in February of 2024. Republicans have not been the main beneficiary though. Their 2.695 million is also part of a steady but smaller decline since 2020. The main benefit seems to be the non-enrolments that have gained second place status in New York climbing to their highest point ever at 2,88 million. Again, the caveat here is the 2024 data is from February and we will have to see if the Presidential election year generates a large enrollment bump.  Also, the Trump years of constant voter registration is an anomaly, looking back at four-year patterns there is usually a drop in between presidential years for major parties and then an increase in enrollment in the presidential year. We could be seeing a natural dip that will be erased by the end of the year.

When looking at how New York votes in common elections I have decided to look at 5 different statewide elections. The first of course in Gillibrand’s 2018 re-election bid since she is up for re-election again. She crashed in that election winning 64.90%. Since it is a presidential election, I take a look at the 2020 US Presidential result. President Joe Biden carried New York with 60.35%. Most statewide elections happen in mid-term years. In 2022 We elected an all-Democratic slate for statewide office which has happened each midterm since 2006. However, it was one of the years the GOP did the best. Senator Schumer (55.66%) won by double digits. However. Attorney General Letitia James had just 53.14% of the vote and Hochul just 52.67% of the vote.

Finally, it is the return of the heat map. While for efficiency sakes I broke the whole of New York into three regions, we can see by the heat map that individual counties that make up those regions show the vast diversity of New York as a whole. NYC is a dominant blue, but Richmond County (Staten Island) is a standout of slightly less Democratic enrollment. The suburbs are truly broken into two different regions of the northern suburbs of Rockland and Westchester which are heavily Democratic and Long Island counties of Nassau and Suffolk that are borderline Democratic at best. Upstate sees the most diversity of any region. The Hudson valley region of Ulster, Orange, Dutchess, Sullivan, Putnam, and Columbia counties have either borderline to solid Democratic counties. The Capital region of Albany, Schenectady and Rensselaer also show strong Democratic enrollment. Counties with large urban cores such as Onondaga (Syracuse), Monroe (Rochester) and Erie & (Buffalo) also show solid to large Democratic advantages. Finally, some smaller counties with large college populations like Tompkins, Broome, Franklin, and Clinton show areas that have borderline to strong Democratic leanings.

As mentioned at the top of the article, we do have a choice for US Senate this year in New York. Senator Kristen Gillibrand is running for re-election. She became Senator in 2009 appointed by Governor Patterson to fill the term of Hillary Clinton. She won a special election in 2010 to fill out the remainder of the term and re-election bids in 2012 and 2018. She is facing Republican and Conservative Michael Sapraicone. As of this article there are several candidates who filed petitions to create primaries on the Democrat and GOP side for US Senate, but they have all been preliminarily ruled invalid by the NYS Board of Elections and will need to go to court to preserve their right to challenge but that is considered unlikely.

That is, it for this week’s edition of the #weeklywonk. Next week I will take a look at the newly drawn New York 22^nd Congressional district. I will look at the changes in this district since the last election and redistricting’s effect in the district. As always you can subscribe to dustinczarny.com to get all content and election news updates.

Welcome back to the #weeklywonk. Each week I investigate a political subdivision or election result here in Onondaga County and sometimes beyond. I analyze electoral and registration data to illuminate how voters are behaving and interacting with our Democracy. This week I finish my two parts looking back at the April 2^nd Presidential Primary. Today I will look at the Election Day and Overall turnout and how voters in Onondaga County interacted with our electoral process.

There were 11,415 ballots cast in the 2024 Presidential Primary in Onondaga County. 7,672 ballots were cast on Election Day (67%). 2,469 ballots were cast by Mail Balloting (22%). 1,201 ballots were cast by Early Voting (10%). Seventy-two ballots were cast by Affidavit voting (1%) and one ballot was cast as part of a court order (0%). Of the Election Day ballots cast 4,220 ballots were casting the Democratic Primary (55%) as compared to 3,453 ballots cast in the Republican primary (45%).

It is hard to compare primaries to each other as each primary election has a distinct set of eligible voters. The two primaries that are most similar to this year’s Presidential Primary is the dual set of primaries in June (Governor) and August (Congressional) of 2022 where both the Democrats and Republicans have choices countywide. Compared to them the 2024 Presidential primary had approximately a third of the raw voters of both of those primaries (23,272 June 2022and 26,492 August 2022). When you look at the percentage of the overall vote you can compare elections better. Only 67.19% of the voters who participated in the 2024 Presidential Primary decided to wait till Election Day. This is the lowest since the 2020 combined June primary and part of a four-election downward trend.

We had a reduced number of polling places for the 2024 Presidential Primary as we tried to get out of schools who were in scheduled session for April due to the expected low voter turnout and lack of competitiveness in the election. That meant that certain polling places had a larger volume of voters than normal because of this. Almost all Polling places in our top ten were combined with other polling places for that purpose. In fact, only three of the polling places, Bishop Ludden, Eagle Hill Middle School, and Dewitt town Hall were not combined polling places, two of them being schools we were not able to consolidate with the others.

One of the great additional data sets we have been able to get with the addition of electronic poll books is to be able to measure votes cast by hour. The 2024 Presidential Primary election followed a typical low turnout election. A slow but steady increase throughout the day till 3pm. Then we see a three hour after work dinner hour bump in activity. Then a sharp and steady decline until the end of voting at 9pm. Higher turnout primaries like the dual 2022 primaries have peaks in the morning as more voters are excited to vote and then a drop off till the dinner rush.

As hinted at last week and earlier in this article, this was an extremely low voter turnout election. The 11417 voters represented just 4% of the registered voters of Onondaga County. An additional 107,678 (35%) voters were in-eligible to cast a ballot in the Presidential Election decided not to vote. Another 186,358 voters (61%) were eligible but decided not to participate. Of the eligible voters we only saw a 5.78% turnout. When looking at the turnout in the parties, 5,026 of the turnouts was Democrats (57%) and 3,853 was GOP (43%. Voter turnout rates were both pathetically low. Democrats turned out at 5.79% and the GOP turned out at 5.62%.

Unlike in General elections, Democrats are usually more enthusiastic to vote in primaries. However, in the last three primaries the GOP voters were more enthusiastic in similar primaries. Democratic turnout this primary was slightly more enthusiastic but only by a whisker. Still, we do see that we are in a 5-year stretch of more frequent primaries for both. t.  as competition among intra party factions continues.

Finally, when looking at the regional turnout, the 2024 Presidential Primary acted in an unusual way compared to other primaries and elections in general. Normally we see that turnout in the suburbs is higher than in the City of Syracuse. In 2024 April Primary the City of Syracuse eligible voters turned out at a 5.86% rate, slightly higher than the suburbs 5.76%. While it is more frequent to see this in primaries than general elections, it is usually in elections were there are Democratic primaries that dominate the turnout as the City of Syracuse is overall very Democrat.

That is all for this week’s edition of the #weeklywonk. Next week I will start to turn my attention to the political subdivisions that make up the 2024 General Election. I start with a look at New York State as a whole as we have a statewide election for United States Senator. As always you can subscribe to dustinczarny.com for all content and election news updates.