Elections Professional and Activist
Today i talk about the June Village Elections on June 18th and the June federal and local primaries on June 25th. Liverpool Village residents will be able to choose for two uncontested village trustees and and a proposition to move village elections to November. Onondaga County Democrats will choose a nominee for congress and in SD 50, and republicans will choose a nominee in sd 48 on June 25th. Check it out.
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.Welcome back to the #weeklywonk. In this space I try to shed light on the forces that make up the body politic in New York and Onondaga County. Each week I will look at electoral and registration data that make up a political subdivision or an election event. I continue my look at political subdivisions that will make up the General Election 2024. This week I investigate the sole village having a June election this year, the village of Liverpool.
The Village of Liverpool has 1,710 active voters making ranking it 8 out of 15 villages in Onondaga County. Democrats make up 674 voters or 39% of the active registered voters making it the plurality of the district. The GOP has just 425 voters (25%). The non-enrolled are in second place with 503 voters (29%). The Democrats have a +14.54% enrollment advantage. There are only two Election districts that make up Liverpool. Election District 3 is the west portion of the village with 979 voters (58%). Election District 4 is the eastern portion of the village with 719 voters (42%).
The Village of Liverpool was once a GOP stronghold but has transformed tremendously since 2009. This once blood red Village is now dominated by Democrats. The GOP has now fallen to third place behind the non-enrolled. Like other areas of the county the Democrats had a dramatic rise during the Trump’s Presidency from 2016 to 2020 Democrats gaining 100 voters, the Gop gained just 12 voters and the non-enrolled gained 79 voters. Since 2021 Democrats continued gaining 46 voters, the GOP has lost 77 voters, and the non-enrolled gained 21 voters.
The two different regions of Liverpool lean to the Democrats. Liverpool is divided down the center with Election District 3 to the west, and Election District 4 to the east. Both eds have Democrats in the lead, followed by the non-enrolled and the GOP in third. Election District 3 has a +14.30% to the Democrats and ed 4 has +14.87% to the Democrats.
It’s a new year and we have a new addition to our four comparative races, though it will feel slightly familiar. In addition to the Presidential race of 2020, the Supreme Court race of 2021, the Governor’s race of 2022, we will look at the County Clerk race of 2023 to compare how it performed in the political subdivision we are investigating. This replaces the 2019 County Clerk race, but we can now compare those races as well. This village not only is dominated by the Democrats in registration but in performance as well. In 2020 Biden won this town by 28.72%. Democrats also won the village of Liverpool in the 2021 Supreme Court (+22.68%), 2022 Governor (+26.75%), & 2023 County Clerk race (+21.53%), and. However, another promising sign for Democrats is the electoral chances seem to be improving. When comparing the 2019 County Clerk race to the 2023 County Clerk race Democrats did +6.53% better. The Democrats also won the control of the Town Board in 2023 as well as the Village Mayor winning that race by 12.06%.
Last year I introduced heat maps as a way of showing the complex makeup of the political subdivisions that will have races this year. The village of Liverpool has only 2 Eds and they both fall into the solid Democratic camp (Dem +10-15%).
One final data point I wanted to bring to this #weeklywonk is a reminder of the results when previous village elections moved to November. Since 2016 four villages oved their elections from March to November, Solvay, E. Syracuse, and Tully in 2016 and Elbridge in 2019. I decided to compare votes cast in the races before the change and after. This is not voter turnout, but actual votes cast in village wide races. All four villages not only saw dramatic turnout in the first election, but it was also sustained after. Solvay saw a +38.64% increase in its Mayoral elections. E. Syracuse saw a +88.27% increase in its Mayoral election. Even non-contested elections had massive turnout increases. Tully and Elbridge had +762.5% and +812% increases. This is why Syracuse.com issued an editorial endorsing the moves in 2023, as they did in 2016. It is also why Baldwinsville (54.89%) and Fayetteville (60.67%) voters overwhelmingly decided to move their village elections to November in March.
The are two village board races up in June as well as however they are unopposed by the Democrats. Part of the reason for that was the timeline for finding village candidates was truncated with June elections. However, village voters will have a chance to move their elections to November. Proposition 1 will allow voters to move the village elections to November and save 100% of future election costs while boosting turnout and the ability to recruit candidates.
That is, it for this week’s edition of the #WeeklyWonk. Next week I will start my look at the Assembly Districts having races in Onondaga County. First up is Assembly district 126, the only GOP held state legislative district in Onondaga County. As always you can find it on dustinczarny.com where you can subscribe for email notifications for content and election news updates.
I have seen a great deal of chatter on whether Donald Trump can or cannot vote now that he has been convicted. I have done a bit of research and talked to a few trusted colleagues, and this is what I have produced. In short, yes, he can until or unless he is actually incarcerated.
A few caveats before I begin, I am not a lawyer nor an expert in Florida election law. I have what I consider a good deal of familiarity with NY Election Law, which possibly comes into play here despite Trump being a Florida resident. Here is what I found.
First off There is a Florida AG opinion from 1977 that may play the most important role here that states that a defendant will not lose his voting rights in Florida until the appeals have run their course “”A conviction of felony in a trial court will not disqualify the defendant as an elector, candidate for office or office holder, when an appeal is prosecuted from such conviction, until the appeal is disposed of by the appellate court.”
https://www.myfloridalegal.com/ag-opinions/felony-conviction-on-appeal-voting
Donald Trump is a Florida resident so likely this opinion could come into play. However, Florida also defers to other states laws when a resident is tried and convicted in another State. That is where NYS law may come into play.
So, what does NY law say? 5-106.2 of NYS Election Law states this “No person who has been convicted of a felony and sentenced to a period of imprisonment for such felony pursuant to the laws of this state, shall have the right to register for or vote at any election while he or she is incarcerated for such felony.”
https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/ELN/5-106
A NY Voter must be convicted, sentenced, AND incarcerated to lose their voting rights in NY. Donald Trump has not been sentenced yet. That is scheduled to happen July 11, 2024, but could be delayed while appeals are ongoing. However, if it is not delayed, sentencing alone will not remove his voting rights in NY. He needs to physically be incarcerated.
If the sentencing happens and it includes incarceration it is likely that it will be delayed until the appeals are heard. That would mean under NY law Trump would be eligible to vote in NY, and conversely in Florida.
Unless and until Trump is actually sitting in a jail cell in the state of New York, he retains his voting rights in my opinion. The appeal process will likely happen well after Election Day, so yes, he will be able to vote for himself this November.
Thank you to my colleagues in Florida and New York who helped by giving me information whose names will remain anonymous if I have gotten this ridiculously wrong.
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This week I speak with Ian Phillips who is running for NY Assembly 126th district. This district is in the southern and western portions of Onondaga County and into Auburn and Cayuga County. We had a great conversation and I hope you enjoy. Find more about Ian here: https://www.ianforcny.com/about
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Today was the last day to file independent nominating petitions in Onondaga County and New York State. We had filings for US President, United States Senate, NY Congressional district 22, Assembly District 127, and Village of Fayetteville. I go over the candidates and some surprising wrinkles. Enjoy.
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Welcome back to the #weeklywonk. In this space I try to shed light on the forces that make up the body politic in New York and Onondaga County. Each week I will look at electoral and registration data that make up a political subdivision or an election event. I continue my look at political subdivisions that will make up the General Election 2024. This week I investigate the only town having a primary this election, the Town of Lysander.
The Town of Lysander has 17,525 active voters making it a mid-size suburban town in Onondaga County. Democrats make up 5,059 voters or 29% of the active registered voters of the district. The GOP makes up the plurality with 6,345 voters (36%). The non enrolled are a close third with 4,928 voters (28%). The GOP have a +7.34% enrollment advantage. For this article, I once again break up the town into Western, Center, Southern, Eastern regions, and a portion of the Village of Baldwinsville. The southern portion (eds 5,8,9,10) make up 24% of the town (4,172 voters). The eastern portion (eds 6,13,14,16) make up 23% of the town (3,970 voters). The center portion (eds 3,11,17,18) make up 20% of the town (3,486 voters). The western portion (eds 1,2,15) make up 14% of the town (4,172 voters). There is also a portion of the village of Baldwinsville that straddles Van Buren and Lysander. The Lysander portion of the village of Baldwinsville (Eds 4,7,12) make up 19% of the town (3,381 voters).
The Town of Lysander has had quote a journey since 2009. This once blood red town has moved quite a bit towards the Democrats. And non-enrolled. This is dramatic during the Trump’s Presidency from 2016 to 2020 Democrats gained 1,173 voters, the Gop gained just 539 voters and the non-enrolled gained 1013 voters. Since 2021 the district has remained basically stagnate with Democrats gaining just 33 voters, the GOP losing 185 voters, and the non-enrolled gaining the most with 494 voters.
The five different regions of Lysander are all lean to the GOP but by different degrees. The most GOP district is the West, with the GOP having a +20.39% advantage and the Democrats outnumbered by the N/E. The second most GOP district is the southern region with the GOP having a +9.13% advantage and once again the Democrats in third place to the n/e. In the eastern district the GOP has just a +4.86% advantage and the Democrats rose to 2nd place. The Center district is +3.90% GOP as Democrats inched closer to the GOP. The least GOP portion is the village of Baldwinsville with just a +1.86% advantage for the GOP.
It’s a new year and we have a new addition to our four comparative races, though it will feel slightly familiar. In addition to the Presidential race of 2020, the Supreme Court race of 2021, the Governor’s race of 2022, we will look at the County Clerk race of 2023 to compare how it performed in the political subdivision we are investigating. This replaces the 2019 County Clerk race, but we can now compare those races as well. This town, though a slight GOP lean, has shown an ability to vote Democratic. In 2020 Biden won this town by 4.34%. The Democrats also won the Town Supervisor race in 2023 by 10.23%. However, the GOP won inside Lysander for the 2023 County Clerk race (+13.07%), 2022 Governor (+7.25%), and 2021 Supreme Court (+12.91%). However, another promising sign for Democrats is the electoral chances seem to be improving. When comparing the 2019 County Clerk race to the 2023 County Clerk race Democrats did +4.83% better. Also, when comparing the 2019 Town Supervisor race Democrats did +28.02% better but that can be chalked up to Kevin Rhode consolidating support with the conservative party running a 3rd party candidate in 2019 while supporting Supervisor Rhode in 2023.
Last year I introduced heat maps as a way of showing the complex makeup of the political subdivisions that will have races this year. #SD48 has some of the highest variety of political polarization of any district we will see this year. There is only one of the 18 election districts (17) where Democrats have an advantage, represented by the solid blue category (Dem +10-15%) The eds with light purple (eds 4 & 8 have a borderline Dem lean (Dem 0-5%). The eds with the dark purple (eds 6,7,12,13, & 18) have a borderline GOP lean (GOP 0-5%). The eds in pink (ed 11 & 14) have a slight GOP lean (GOP 5-10%). The eds in red (Eds 5,9, 16) have a solid GOP lean (GOP 10-15%). The eds in burgundy (eds 2 & 3) have a strong GOP lean (GOP 15-20%). Finally, the eds in dark red (ED 1,10,15) have an overwhelming Gop lean (GOP +20%).
This year in addition to the heat map I look at the number of districts that lean. Though Lysander has been trending towards the Democrats over the last 15 years, there are no regional advantages for the Democrats. There is only one ed out of the 18 that democrats with 788 voters or 4.5%. There are 7 eds with GOP lean have 9074 voters or 51.78%.
There will be a GOP primary for the Lysander Town Board vacancy between Joel Lorenzo and Eugene Dinsmoore. The Conservatives have backed Eugene Dinsmoore setting up an interesting problematic outcome for the GOP should Dinsmoore win. The Democrats have nominated Ken Christopher who ran unsuccessfully for Town Justice in 2023. The Democrats best hope is to form a coalition amongst Democratic and non-enrolled voters to overcome the slight GOP advantage and hope for increased turnout among democratic constituencies due to the Presidential race. Though a split ticket may theoretically help Democrats, it didn’t in 2019 when the GOP won a similar race for town supervisor by over 28%.
That is, it for this week’s edition of the #WeeklyWonk. Next week I will look at the village of Liverpool that is having village elections in June of 2024. They have a proposition to move their elections to November so we will get a sense of the village as a whole. As always you can find it on dustinczarny.com where you can subscribe for email notifications for content and election news updates.
This week I sit down with Tom Speaker of Re-invent Albany. This good government group is focused on transparency in Albany as well as campaign finance and election administration. As legislative director we talk about Tom’s work to move Albany into the light. Enjoy.
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In a special Monday edition I talk about the annual school district elections happening tomorrow. Every school district will be running an election on Tuesday May 21, 2024, except the City of Syracuse which holds them in odd years in November. BOEs don’t run the elections for school districts so contact the school districts for further information. Enjoy.
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The new district lines were then projected to add 30,000 registered Democrats to the district, giving the party a nearly “20,000 voter edge,” according to preliminary calculations by Onondaga County Board of Elections Commissioner Dustin Czarny.
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Welcome back to the #weeklywonk. In this space I try to shed light on the forces that make up the body politic in New York and Onondaga County. Each week I will look at electoral and registration data that make up a political subdivision or an election event. I continue my look at political subdivisions that will make up the General Election 2024. This week I investigate the most competitive race over the last few elections, NY Senate district forty-eight.
NY Senate district 48 is a decidedly Democratic Senate district. Democrats make up 75,150 voters or 39% of the 193,209 active registered voters of the district. This represents the largest plurality. The GOP makes up just 53,150 voters {27%). The non enrolled are a close third with 51,248 voters (26%). Democrats have a +11.36% advantage. The district itself spans two different counties, but really 4 different distinct regions. The Western and southern portions of Onondaga County are the largest plurality in the district with 38% (74,210) of the active voters. The City of Syracuse is just behind with 37% (71,490) voters. That means Onondaga County makes up 75% of the active voters of the district. The whole of Cayuga county makes up the remaining portion. This county is broken into the city of Auburn at 8% (14,769) and the rest of Cayuga County at 17 % (32,240) of the active registered voters.
The Senate districts in Central New York were radically redrawn under the special master maps of 2022. The old district represented by NY Senator Rachel May spanned east into Madison and Oneida county under the old district name of #SD53. This district was trending Democratic but undersized as it was represented by Senator Dave Valesky of the IDC and treated favorably in the GOP Senate who controlled Senate redistricting. Senator May won a primary in 2018 and the seat as the #SD53 became more and more Democratic and the notion of the IDC giving the GOP Senate control became untenable. The Special Master map in 2022 gave all the City of Syracuse to the newly numbered #SD48. But moved it westward in Cayuga County. Since 2022 the district has remained basically stagnate with Democrats losing 907 voters, the GOP losing 305 voters, and the non-enrolled gaining 635 voters. With two urban cores in the district like Auburn and Syracuse registrations are bound to grow drastically in a Presidential year as cities tend to lose registration between Presidential cycles and gain in the closing months of the campaign.
The four different regions of #SD48 are politically very different. The City of Syracuse is the most polarize region as Democrats have a +42.20% registration advantage and the non-enrolled dwarf the GOP. The City of Auburn is the second-best region for Democrats with a +13.66% advantage, though the GOP remain in solid second place there. The southern and western portions of Onondaga County have a slight GOP advantage with +6.60 registration advantage for Republicans. Though the Democrats and Non-enrolled are almost tied in this portion for 2nd place. The non-Auburn portion of Cayuga County is the most GOP friendly of the district with the GOP having a +15.91% registration advantage. Though even in this portion of the district Democrats are in a solid second place above the non-enrolled.
As far as performance of the district we can only look at three races to see how the district will perform. Thanks to NY Redistricting and You we can see how this district would have performed in 2020 for the Presidential race and Joe Biden won the district by +18.20%. In 2022 Governor Hochul despite facing issues in upstate New York was also able to win this district, though only by +3.30%. Rachel May was able to win this district in her 2022 re-election by +7.53% though she was helped by a conservative party splitter. In fact, all three of her elections there have been a third-party splitter. In 2018 Dave Valesky remained on the ballot on the independence line but she still won by 13.77% and in 2020 a libertarian candidate was on the ballot, and she won by 10.09%. Despite having third party entrants in each race Senator May won her vote between 49 and 52% of the vote making it unlikely the third-party entrants made a deciding difference in the race.
Last year I introduced heat maps as a way of showing the complex makeup of the political subdivisions that will have races this year. #SD48 has some of the highest variety of political polarization of any district we will see this year. The dark blue (DEM +20%) of the City of Syracuse shows the Democratic domination there. That is followed by the solid blue (DEM +10-14%) domination Democrats have in the City of Auburn. Outside of those subdivisions we see only a few borderline towns represented by the light purple (DEM 0-4%) where Democrats have a token advantage and Dark purple (GOP 0-4%) where the GOP have the token advantage. The rest of the towns have a variety of Republicans advantage from the pink (GOP +5-9) with slight advantage, red (GOP +10-14%) where the Republicans have solid advantage, burgundy (GOP +15-19%) where the Republicans have a significant advantage and dark red (GOP +20%) where the Republicans have dominance.
Despite the geographic dominance for the GOP, the plurality of voters resides in the Democratic towns of Syracuse and Auburn with 86,259 voters or 44.5%. The 31 GOP towns band together to have 77,486 voters or 40.0%. The 4 borderline towns of Onondaga, Van Buren, Owasco and Ledyard have 29,964 voters or just 15.5%.
There will be a GOP primary for #SD48 in June. Republicans Caleb Slater and Fanny Villareal. Senator Rachel May will be on the Democratic and Working Families line. The conservative party endorsed Caleb Slater but in a paperwork error he will not appear on the Conservative line. Unless someone files independent nominating paperwork at the end of May that means for the first time there will be a head-to-head contest this fall with Rachel May and the winner of the GOP primary.
That is, it for this week’s edition of the #WeeklyWonk. Next week I will look at the Town of Lysander which is having a GOP primary this fall for the vacant Town Board race. This town has a vacancy this year because of a Democratic win last year and in a Presidential year and a GOP primary this is a possible pickup for Democrats in 2024. As always you can find it on dustinczarny.com where you can subscribe for email notifications for content and election news updates.
Dustin M. Czarny