The Weekly Wonk: A final look at Onondaga County

Welcome back to #WeeklyWonk. Each weekend I publish an article on a subject relating to elections in Onondaga County and New York State. Often these articles will have detailed stats to consume but sometimes they will be a recap of a prominent issue or on relevant election law. Today is my final recap of Onondaga County before Tuesday’s General Election.

Onondaga County ends the year similar to how it started. As of Friday November 4th, we had 306,698 active voters in our county. Onondaga County overall leans slightly to the left. #8% of voters (116,591) are Democratic, 27% are Republican (82,555), 29% non-enrolled (87,372) with about 6% third party. The City of Syracuse makes up only 23.4% of the county with 71,866 voters. The City of Syracuse makeup is overwhelmingly Democratic with 55% of the voters (39,649) enrolled in the Democratic party, 13% Republican (9,122), 26% non-enrolled (19,168) and 6% third party. Finally, the nineteen towns of Onondaga County make up 76.6% of the voters of Onondaga County and are borderline Democratic. Thirty-three percent of the voters (76,944 are enrolled as Democrats, 31% (73,433) are Republican, 29% are non-enrolled (68,204) and around 7% are enrolled in a third party.

I have been doing heat maps for you all year, but this is my first heat map of our entire county. First, I do a heat map of the individual town and ward registrations. All nineteen wards of the city of Syracuse are rated overwhelmingly Democratic (+20% DEM). The Town of Dewitt is the bluest Town of Onondaga rating in the moderately Democratic category (+ 10-4% DEM). The towns of Manlius and Salina rate in the slightly Democratic category (+59% DEM). Camillus, Clay, Geddes, and Onondaga are rated in the borderline Democratic category (0-4%). Cicero is borderline Republican (+0-4 GOP). Lysander, Marcellus, Pompey, Skaneateles, Tully, and Van Buren rate slightly GOP (+5-9% GOP). Elbridge, Lafayette, and Spafford are moderately GOP (+10-14% GOP). However, I also provided a heat map of all 442 Election Districts in Onondaga County. We have 2 EDs that are actually tied and white, and small EDs with no voters in them that are black. Looking at the ED heat map we can really see the diversity of our home. Most towns have a great deal of diversity in them, and it is beautiful to see.

These are the historical trends for Onondaga County. We can see in 1996 Onondaga County started out as a pretty overwhelmingly GOP county. However, starting in 2004 we really start to see two dynamics starting to work, the GOP started to lose voters dramatically as their aging population was not replaced as voters moved or died. Then in 2008 we saw a dramatic rise in Democratic registrations around the Obama election. Democrats stayed steady as the GOP decreased until 2016. In the wake of the 2016 election, we saw dramatic increases in Democratic enrollment as the GOP plateaued. The non-enrolled though started to make their rise in 2019 and continues, while The Democrats have levelled off. While Democrats have a dramatic raw Democratic voter advantage (+34k) it has not changed much over the last few years. When we look at the Democratic advantage when paired with their traditional allies the Working Families party and the GOP paired with the Conservative party, Democrats have a +9.88% advantage.

As we look toward the 2023 elections it is helpful to look at the results in our county since the last similar election, 2019. In 2019 the GOP won three of the four county-wide seats but the Democrats running for Supreme Court both carried Onondaga County. Since 2019 Democrats running County wide or in districts that has all of Onondaga County in its Democrats have won 17 of 19 races. We can also see that though the changes have leveled off in the last few years, the electorate is dramatically different than in 2019. Democrats have added to their raw voter advantage by nearly 4k voters and partisan advantage by almost 1%. However, the most dramatic increase is the over 12k new non-enrolled voters. In fact, overall Democrats lost .35% and the GOP lost 1.18% in their share of the county population while the N/E have gained 2.78%. The Raw Democratic gains and the unpredictable N/E population will help shape the 2023 election.

That does it for my last look at 2023. Early Voting runs today, Sunday November 5, 2003 9am to 5pm. You can still get an absentee ballot in person Monday November 6th 8:30 to 4:30 pm, and Election Day is Tuesday November 7, 2023 6am to 9pm. Go to onvote.net to get information. I will take a break from the Weekly Wonk as the election will have happened, but ballots and data will still be in flux. Starting two weeks from now I will start to take a look back at the 2023 Election and look forward to 2024. As always you can subscribe to dustinczarny.com to get all content updates and election news below.

Candidate on ballot for Onondaga County race no longer lives in legislature district – Syracuse.com

“The ballots were already printed and the election was already programmed,” Czarny said.

Should Aslam pull out a victory, the law is not clear on whether he could take office while living outside the district, Czarny said. Onondaga County’s charter specifies that a candidate must be a resident in a district when petitions are filed, which Aslam was. The elections commissioner said he would expect a legal challenge that courts would settle in that scenario.

https://www.syracuse.com/politics/cny/2023/11/candidate-on-ballot-for-onondaga-county-race-no-longer-lives-in-legislature-district.html

Onondaga County Gears Up for 2023 Election – NCC News

“These local leaders actually have way more of an impact on your daily life than the national and federal races,” Czarny said. “Your local leaders are the ones who decide how much sales tax you’re going to pay. They pave the roads that you drive on everyday. They determine the funding for public transportation,” he said. 

Early voting turnout strong in run-up to Election Day- WAER

“Early voting grows over time and that’s what we saw in other states,” Czarny said. “When it when it first gets implemented, it starts out small, then people start to trust it. And now the campaigns are really trying to drive people for it, both sides now are trying to drive people towards it.”

https://www.waer.org/news/2023-11-03/early-voting-turnout-strong-in-run-up-to-election-day

Early voting off to busier start in Onondaga County, elections commissioner says – Syracuse.com

“Anytime you have more people using a tool than you had in the past, comparatively, that’s a good thing,” he said.

Czarny added that, besides for Election Day polls, early voting is the most popular way to cast a ballot in Onondaga County. He said the additional days to vote helps provide flexibility.

“Having early voting going on allows voters to choose the time that is most convenient for them to cast their ballot,” he said.

https://www.syracuse.com/politics/cny/2023/10/early-voting-off-to-busier-start-in-onondaga-county-elections-commissioner-says

Zoom with Czarny: Jay Riordan and Rob Santucci of the Cicero Democrats

This week I sit down with Jay Riordan running for Cicero Town Board and Rob Santucci chair of the Cicero Democratic Committee. Check out how this committee is trying to rebuild ties to Cicero by winning seats on the town Board. Enjoy.

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Commissioner: Onondaga County is underfunding our elections (Guest Opinion by Dustin M. Czarny) – Syracuse.com

This op-ed piece originally appeared in Syracuse.com on October 2, 2023. You can find it on their website here: https://www.syracuse.com/opinion/2023/10/commissioner-onondaga-county-is-underfunding-our-elections-guest-opinion-by-dustin-m-czarny.html

I decided to write this in response to the Onondaga County Legislature GOP shorting our budget and publicly blaming the County Board of Elections for not giving enough data. The joint testimony referenced in this op-ed is archived on ym website here: https://dustinczarny.com/2023/10/04/2024-budget-testimony-by-the-onondaga-county-board-of-elections/

Dustin M. Czarny is Onondaga County Elections Commissioner (D) and chair of the New York State Elections Commissioner Association Democratic Caucus.

While we are preparing for the 2023 general election, Board of Elections throughout New York state are already preparing for the 2024 presidential election. Many counties have already passed or sare passing their 2024 budgets this fall. New York funds elections primarily through county governments and Boards of Elections are communicating our needs in hopes of being properly funded next year. Unfortunately, many county governments throughout the state are failing to understand those needs to properly fund our democracy.

We can look no further than our own backyard for a prime example of this. Early on, both commissioners and the staff of the Onondaga County Board of Elections worked in a bipartisan fashion to try and make the county aware of the true minimum costs of running the 2024 elections. When we tried to meet with the Office of Management and Budget, we were denied a meeting with top staff to explain our needs. When the county executive budget came out, it left our request short by over $1 million and we once again requested meetings not only with the county executive, but a hearing with the Onondaga County Legislature. Despite inviting the Board of Elections to hearings every other budget cycle that I can remember, we were denied a hearing and any subsequent meetings.

In desperation, we submitted a detailed, three-page written testimony meticulously detailing the needs of the department. We outlined election law changes that required more training and operational hours for our election inspectors in each of the three elections next year. Yet this was ignored without comment and wrongfully described as woefully inadequate by Majority Leader Brian May. This was an insult to the staff of the Board of Elections that put in countless hours preparing and disseminating our justifications to the county executive, Office of Management and Budget, and every member of the county legislature, including May.

The GOP caucus of the Onondaga County Legislature only responded by putting less than half of our shortfall, approximately $475,000, in contingency. They blocked every attempt by the Democratic caucus to address our needs and add staff and funding. This will mean that during one of the busiest election seasons in our generation, we will need to continually go back to the legislature to ask them to release funds while trying to serve the most basic functions of our democracy. This is an added burden to our already understaffed and underfunded Board of Elections.

Onondaga County, by every measure, has woefully underfunded our democracy. Our full-time employee to voter ratio (1 for every 15,224.3 voters) is the worst of every county in New York state. Onondaga County’s failure to address this has led to a high turnover rate in our office. Elections staff are underpaid and overworked, which has led to a near 50% turnover since 2020. As was highlighted in neighboring counties, election staff can’t just choose to put off work until next elections. We often work countless hours of overtime to make up for this shortfall. Still, this loss of institutional knowledge is another unnecessary burden that is placed upon us by the systemic, willful ignorance of the county legislature and county executive.

I wish this were an isolated incident. In my role as Democratic Caucus Chair of the New York State Elections Commissioner Association, I have heard from many of my colleagues that they are facing similar, though not as drastic, shortages going into 2024. If the counties throughout New York State are unwilling or unable to provide adequate funding, then New York state must address this in the next legislative session.

Last session, a bill by Sen. John Mannion and Assemblywoman Pam Hunter (A1258/S644) sought to address this issue. This bill established minimum number of staff for each Board of Elections based on voter population. It has passed the Senate twice but has not come up for a vote in the Assembly. The Assembly, Senate and governor should pass and sign this bill as soon as possible next session to fix the long-term, systemic funding issues we are seeing at the county level. Furthermore, New York should set aside money in the state budget for the hiring of temporary staff for 2024 to make up for the immediate shortfall in many counties going into next year’s very consequential presidential election. The federal government should also pass similar funding legislation as the 2020 CARES act that provided direct funding for elections nationwide.

As Boards of Elections come upon the 2024 election cycle, we face a multitude of challenges. Election officials are up to the task of delivering a fair, safe and secure election but they need the support from county, state and federal officials to do so. We face rising turnout, more responsibilities, security threats and adoption of new technology. We cannot overcome all those burdens while fighting for the basic minimum of funding our elections. We need all hands-on deck in 2024 and less arbitrary and unnecessary obstacles placed in our way. Only working together can we protect and serve the most basic building block of our democracy, the right to cast your vote safely and securely.

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Election Day 2024: What voters need to know – WSYR 9

“So you can go to an early voting center, if you aren’t already registered and do an affidavit ballot, which will register you to vote and allow you to vote but only on Saturday, October 28th,” said Dustin Czarny, (D) Elections Commissioner for Onondaga County Board of Elections.

https://www.localsyr.com/news/your-local-election-hq/election-day-2023-what-voters-need-to-know/