Welcome back to #WeeklyWonk. Each weekend I publish an article on a subject relating to elections in Onondaga County and New York State. Often these articles will have detailed stats to consume but sometimes they will be a recap of a prominent issue or on relevant election law. I am turning my eye to the 2023 elections. Today I look at the Town of Pompey, a seemingly red town that occasionally votes blue.

The Town of Pompey sits in the southeastern corner of our county.  It sits south of Dewitt and Manlius, east of Lafayette, and north of Fabius.  It is a smaller rural town with 5,418 voters, ranking 11^h out of 19 towns at the upper end of the rural towns. The Town of Pompey is a solidly red town that votes differently than its registration at times with definite trends towards Democrats.  The makeup of Pompey is 28% Democrat (1,542 Voters), 38% GOP (2,049 Voters), and 28% non-Enrolled (1,508 voters).  With only 6 Election Districts there is no need to break down this town into regions.  We can examine each Election District.  Election District 1 sits in the center north of Pompey with 889 voters (17%).  ED 2 sits in the northeastern corner of the town and has 768 voters (14%).  ED 3 sits in the southeastern corner of the town with 1,028 voters (19%).  ED 4 sits in the southwestern portion of town and has 1,034 voters.  Ed 5 sits in the northwestern portion of town and has 925 voters (17%). Ed 6 sits in the north center portion of town and has 774 voters (14%).

In a new feature I am bringing to the #weeklywonk this year I am doing a heat map for each political subdivision.  I will be looking at the current partisan makeup of each individual ED and heat mapping its partisan lean based on the advantage for the Democrats and GOP.  Looking at the heat map we really see that the Town of Onondaga has some of the most diverse partisanship of any Town in the County.    ED 5 has an overwhelming GOP lean (-20% and above). ED 3 has a strong GOP lean (-15-20%). ED 2 has a moderate GOP lean (-5-10%).  EDs 4 & 6 have a borderline GOP lean (-0-5%).  ED 3 is the only democratic ed with a borderline Democratic lean (0-5%).  The Eds closer to the order of Manlius and Dewitt are more Democratic than the Eds to the South ordering Fabius and Lafayette.

Since 2009 The Town of Pompey registration has had a slow & steady trend towards the Democrats though it remains a solidly red town.  The Democrats have gained 304 voters since 2009. The GOP has lost only 28 voters during that time staying basically the same.  The Non-enrolled has gained the most with 326 more voters.   Like many other communities though, the Democratic gains seemed to have plateaued since 2020.  The non-enrolled though have made steady gains since 2016.  The N/E may even overtake the Democrats next year. 

Only one of the six eds in Pompey shows a Democratic lean with all 5 others showing GOP leans. ED 3 is the Democratic Election District, but only by a hair with .49% difference.  ED 4 has a borderline GOP lead with -1.74%.  ED 6 is similar with a GOP lean of -2.20%.  ED 2 has a moderate GOP lean with -8.84% however and Democrats and Non-enrolled are basically even there.  ED 1 has a strong GOP lean with -15.86%.  ED 5 has an overwhelming GOP lean with -26.81%. The non-enrolled in these two regions outnumber the Democrats. 

Looking at the growth of voters since the last redistricting cycle we compare it with date from right before redistricting of 2012.   The Town of Pompey grew by 630 active voters since 2012.  The overwhelming amount of growth occurred in the Northeastern corner of the town.  Ed 3 gained 204 voters and ED 4 gained 150 voters.  The other 4 eds had similar small growth.  ED 6 gained 76 voters, ED 5 gained 75 voters, ED 2 gained 64 voters, and ED 1 gained 59 voters. 

Every ED in the Town of Pompey has trended towards the Democrats since the last redistricting, however some have grown dramatically different than others.  Eds 3 & 4 did not just grow in voters the most, they had the most Democratic growth at 12.50% and 11.72% respectively. Following them we saw similar Democratic growth in ED 6 (11.17%) and ED 2 (9.04%).  The GOP EDS 1 & 5 has seen the least Democratic growth of 2.69% & 0.25% respectively. 

When we look at the comparative races, the Town of Pompey votes significantly behind Onondaga County as a whole. In 2022 the Town of Pompey only voted for Governor Hochul’s by 44.92%, 8.86% worse than her win in Onondaga County rate of 53.78%. In 2021 the Town of Pompey only voted for Anthony Brindisis for Supreme Court by 45.33%, 7.17% worse than the county result rate of 52.50%.  In 2020 Pompey voted for President Biden, the only race that got a majority Democratic vote, by 50.48%, but also lost 8.40% points behind his Onondaga County win of 58.88%.  In 2019 Pompey only voted for Democrat Mark Kolinski for County clerk by 43.02% losing 4.71% of his Onondaga County rate of 47.73%.  The last head-to-head town offices where Democrats contested was for Town Council to fill Vacancy and Town Justice.  Democrats won the Town Council TFV 23.56% and lost the Town Justice race by just 2.16%. The Town of Pompey, while voting behind Onondaga County as a whole, does vote more Democratic than their registration would suggest.  This indicates that the large and growing non-Enrolled registration is leaning Democratic, specially in races that have more extreme GOP opponents.

In 2023 the Town of Pompey Democrats have already caucused.  They are contesting the Two Town Board seats.  Diane Carpenter who was elected in the TFV race last year is running are running for her Town seat on a plank of continuing the bi-partisan ruling coalition that Pompey has seen over the last few years.  If you are interested in helping these candidates or joining the Pompey Democratic committee, contact their chairperson Victoria Lightcap at victorialightcap@gmail.com

That is, it for this week’s edition of the #WeeklyWonk.  Next week I will dive into the Town of Skaneateles, home of my Alma Matter and some Democratic success in recent years. As always go to dustinczarny.com and subscribe to get all your content and election news updates.  I run that website, along with these series of articles, as part of my voter education.  I never take ad money or charge subscriptions paying for the site with my own personal funds.  Subscribe here.

Welcome back to #WeeklyWonk. Each weekend I publish an article on a subject relating to elections in Onondaga County and New York State. Often these articles will have detailed stats to consume but sometimes they will be a recap of a prominent issue or on relevant election law. I am turning my eye to the 2023 elections. Today I look at the Town of Onondaga, another former red town that is now trending purple.

The Town of Onondaga sits to the southwest of the City of Syracuse and borders the valley wrapping around the southern tip of Syracuse Lake.  It is a mid-sized suburban town with 16.433 voters, ranking 8^th out of 19 towns and right in the middle of all the towns. The Town of Onondaga is considered a purple town, with a trend towards Democrats over the last few years.  The makeup of Onondaga is 33% Democrat (5,371 Voters), 31% GOP (5,049 Voters), and 29% non-Enrolled (4,856 voters).  This year I am breaking down the Towns into as equal as possible regions and Geddes is easily broken into 4 different regions.  Northeastern Onondaga bordering the Strathmore portion of Syracuse (eds 4, 5, 8, 19, & 20) has 3.906 voters (27%). The Northwestern portion of Onondaga gets close to the Camillus and Elbridge (Eds 2, 6, 7, & 17) with 3,427 voters (21%).   The Southern portion of Onondaga is the more rural part of Onondaga ordering the towns of Marcellus and (eds 1, 3, 9, 10, & 11) has 4,645 voters (28%).  Eastern Onondaga Wraps around the South End of the city bordering Lafayette and Dewitt and contains the Onondaga Indian Nation Territory (eds 4, 5, 8, 19, & 20) has 3,906 voters (24%).

In a new feature I am bringing to the #weeklywonk this year I am doing a heat map for each political subdivision.  I will be looking at the current partisan makeup of each individual ED and heat mapping its partisan lean based on the advantage for the Democrats and GOP.  Looking at the heat map we really see that the Town of Onondaga has some of the most diverse partisanship of any Town in the County.    ED 6 has substantial GOP lean (-15-20%).  Eds 1, 10, & 11 have a strong GOP (- 10-15%).  Eds 17 has a slight GOP lean (-5-10%).  Eds 2, 3, 7, & 9 have a borderline GOP lean (0%–5%) Eds 13 & 19 have borderline Democratic advantages (0-5%).  ED 8 & 12 have a slight Democratic advantage (+5-10 %). Ed 4, 5, 14, 16 & 18 have a strong Democratic lean (+10-15%).  Eds 15 & 20 have overwhelming Democratic leans.  The Closer to the border of the city the stronger the Democratic lean.  Republicans tend to dominate the farther South and West in the town you travel.

Since 2009 The Town of Onondaga registration has steadily trended towards the Democrats and has switched from a solid GOP town to purple town in 2020.  The Democrats have gained 918 voters since 2009. The GOP has lost 568 voters during that time.  The Non-enrolled has gained the most with975 more voters.   Like many other communities though, the Democratic gains and GOP losses seemed to have plateaued since 2020.  The non-enrolled though have made steady gains since 2016.  The N/E may even overtake the GOP next year. 

Two of the four regions in Onondaga show strong Democratic leans with two showing a strong GOP lean.  Both the East and Northeastern portions bordering the City of Syracuse have Democratic leans.  The Northeast bordering the western side of Syracuse has a slight Dem lean (+9.58). The Eastern portion bordering the south of Syracuse and Dewitt has a strong Democratic lean (+11.99).  Both regions the N/E outnumber the GOP.  The Northwestern region bordering Camillus and Elbridge has a slight GOP lean (-6.83%).  The southern region is the most GOP but still just a slight GOP lean (-7.58).  The non-enrolled in these two regions outnumber the Democrats.  Onondaga is becoming a sharply divided town in terms of partisanship with opposite halves.

Looking at the growth of voters since the last redistricting cycle we compare it with date from right before redistricting of 2012.   The Town of Onondaga grew by 1,761 active voters since 2012.  The southern region grew the fastest, with 530 voters.  The eastern region grew the second fastest with 468 more voters.  The Northwestern region was next with 419 voters.  The Northeastern region grew the least with just 233 voters. 

Every region in the Town of Onondaga has trended towards the Democrats since the last redistricting.   Since 2012 the Democrats have grown its advantage in Onondaga by 9.07%. The Northeastern region had the most dramatic Democratic growth (+16.01%).  The rest of the town grew at about the same rate.  The Northwest region had +6.77% Democratic Growth.  The Eastern region grew by +6.54%. The Southern region grew by 6.15%.  With all regions growing in both voters and Democratic growth in a mostly even way it is indicative of new and young Democratic and N/E voters replacing older aging GOP voters.

When we look at the comparative races, the Town of Onondaga votes slightly behind Onondaga County as a whole. In 2022 the Town of Onondaga only voted for Governor Hochul’s by 49.38%, 4.40% worse than her win in Onondaga County rate of 53.78%. In 2021 the Town of Onondaga only voted for Anthony Brindisis for Supreme Court by 45.84%, 6.66% worse than the county result rate of 52.50%.  In 2020 Onondaga voter for President Biden, the only race that got a majority Democratic vote, by 54.78, but also lost 4.10% points behind his Onondaga County win of 58.88%.  In 2019 Onondaga only voted for Democrat Mark Kolinski for County clerk by 41.46% losing 6.27% of his Onondaga County rate of 47.73%.  The last head-to-head town office where Democrats contested was a to fill vacancy on Town Council in 2022.  Democrats lost that race by 8.32%. Even years Democrats do slightly better, but the Town of Onondaga tends not just vote behind Onondaga County, but a few points behind what the enrollment of the Town might indicate.

In 2023 the Town of Onondaga Democrats have already caucused.  They are contesting the Two Town Council seats.  Justin Polly and Noelle Relles are running for the two Town seats on a plank of diversity and transparency.  If you are interested in helping these candidates or joining the Onondaga Democratic committee, contact their chairperson Justin Polly at
OnondagaTown.Dems@gmail.com. 

That is, it for this week’s edition of the #WeeklyWonk.  Next week I will dive into the Town of Pompey, a traditionally red town that has seen Democratic success in the last few years. As always go to dustinczarny.com and subscribe to get all your content and election news updates.  I run that website, along with these series of articles, as part of my voter education.  I never take ad money or charge subscriptions paying for the site with my own personal funds.  Subscribe here.