Welcome back to #WeeklyWonk. Each weekend I publish an article on a subject relating to elections in Onondaga County and New York State. Often these articles will have detailed stats to consume but sometimes they will be a recap of a prominent issue or on relevant election law. I am turning my eye to the 2023 elections. Today I look at the Town of Cicero, the largest GOP town in Onondaga County, and one of the more stable communities in terms of partisan registration over the last ten years.

The Town of Cicero sits in the most Northeastern portion of our County.  It is a large sized suburban town with 22,449 voters, the third highest town in Onondaga County.  It is considered a suburban town but doesn’t share a border with Syracuse nestled between Clay, Manlius and Salina. The Town of Cicero is considered a solid GOP town, the largest political subdivision in Onondaga County with a significant GOP enrollment advantage. The makeup of Cicero is 30% Democrat (6745 Voters), 34% GOP (7547 Voters), and 29% non-Enrolled (6444 voters).  This year I am breaking down the Towns into as equal as possible regions.  Northern Cicero (eds 4,9,10,11, & 21) has 4660 voters (21%). Central Cicero (Eds 18, 19, 23, 25, 26) has 4354 voters (19%).   Eastern Cicero (eds 2, 7, 8, 13, 16, & 20) has 5328 voters (24%).  Southern Cicero (Eds 3, 5, 6, 12, & 14) has 4003 voters (18%).  Western Cicero (eds 1, 15, 17, 22, 24) has 4104 voters (18%).

In a new feature I am bringing to the #weeklywonk this year I am doing a heat map for each political subdivision.  I will be looking at the current partisan makeup of each individual ED and heat mapping its partisan lean based on the advantage for the Democrats and GOP.  We see a wide variety of partisan leans in these eds.  Ed 10 is the most GOP ed with an overwhelming GOP lean (-17.34%).  EDS 7,8,16, & 21 have strong GOP (-10-15%).  Eds 1, 2, 11, & 20 have a moderate GOP (- 5-10%).  Eds 4, 9, 12, 15, 23, 24, 25, & 26 have slight GOP leans (-0-5%).  Eds 3, 5, 17, 18, 19, & 22, have slight Democratic advantages between 0-5%.  Ed 14 has a moderate Democratic advantage (+5.18%) and ED 6 has a strong Democratic advantage (+13.73%). Cicero’s largest geographic ed 13 has an even number of Democrats and GOP (354). In general, Democrats seem to be clustered into the southwestern corner near and around the village of North Syracuse where The GOP have the advantage in the eds bordering Oswego County and Oneida lake.

Since 2009 The Town of Cicero, unlike other communities in In Onondaga County, has not seen a change in partisan leanings.  It has remained a stalwart Republican town.  The Democrats have gained 654 voters since 2009. The GOP grew by only a slightly larger amount 667 voters.  The Non-enrolled has been see largest gains by far with 1586 more voters.   Unlike other communities that saw massive Democratic gains in the Trump years of 2016-2020 the Town of Cicero saw equal gains on both parties during those years.  It seems that voters in Cicero reaction to the Trump years from both parties were to shed their party enrollment instead.

The regions in Cicero have a wide disparity.  The Southern region including a portion of the village of North Syracuse is the most Democratic friendly.  The Western region of Cicero that shares a border with Clay shows a small GOP advantage.  The densely packed Center region with some of the more developed housing units also has a slight GOP lean.  The GOP gains its advantage in domination of the Northern Bridgeport area and the Eastern portion of Cicero that is less densely packed.  There they dominate and can dominate the entire town.

Looking at the growth of voters since the last redistricting cycle we compare it with date from right before redistricting of 2012.   The Town of Cicero grew by 3411 active voters since 2011.  The northern Bridgeport region saw the most growth with a gain of 973 voters.  In close second, we saw the Center region with a nearly equal gain of 931 voters.  The Eastern portion of Cicero had moderate growth of 660 voters.  The western district (+458) and southern region (+389) voters saw the least gain. With Micron coming to neighboring Clay all these regions are likely choices for the influx of voters and it will be interesting to see the growths come next redistricting cycle.

The Town of Cicero is one of the more stable towns in Onondaga County in terms of partisan advantage.  Since 2011 the GOP has only grown its advantage in Cicero by .02%. The Northern region has had the most change with a 2,24% shift towards the Democrats as its voter enrollment grew, but that is a relatively small shift.  The Eastern region has seen the most GOP shift with 1.47% towards the GOP, again a very small shift.  The Center region (+.31%) and southern regions (+.61%) saw incredibly small shifts towards the Democrats.  The western region also saw a small sift (-.47%) toward the GOP.  This all underlines the stability of the Cicero community in terms of partisan leans, but the wildcard here is the growing non-enrolled community that isn’t reflected in these partisan difference stats.

When we look at the comparative races, we see a solidly GOP town that votes significantly to the right of Onondaga County as a whole. In 2022 the Town of Cicero only voted for Governor Hochul’s by 41.96%, 11.82% worse than her win in Onondaga County rate of 53.78%. In 2021 the Town of Camillus only voted for Anthony Brindisis for Supreme Court by 39.45%, 13.05% worse than the county result rate of 52.50%.  In 2020 Cicero was one of the few communities that didn’t vote for President Biden only giving him 46.59%, 12.29% points behind his Onondaga County win of 58.88%.  In 2019 Cicero voted for Democrat Mark Kolinski for County clerk by only 37.50% losing 10.23% of his Onondaga County rate of 47.73%.  The last head-to-head town office where Democrats contested was Supervisor in 2021 where Democrats lost by almost 25%. Even though non-enrolled voters have grown, the voting patterns above indicate they are more conservative than non-enrolled voters in other communities.

In 2023 the Cicero Town Democrats will caucus to find candidates for Supervisor, 2 Town Board members, and Highway superintendent.  The Town of Cicero has already caucused but they are looking to fill some vacancies for most positions by July 31, 2023.  If you are interested in running for any of these offices or want to help the Cicero Democrats contact their chairperson Rob Santucci at Rsantucc@twcny.rr.com

That is, it for this week’s edition of the #WeeklyWonk.  Next week I will dive into the Town of Clay, the largest town in Onondaga County. As always go to dustinczarny.com and subscribe to get all your content and election news updates.  I run that website, along with these series of articles, as part of my voter education.  I never take ad money or charge subscriptions paying for the site with my own personal funds.  Subscribe here.

Welcome back to #WeeklyWonk. Each weekend I publish an article on a subject relating to elections in Onondaga County and New York State. Often these articles will have detailed stats to consume but sometimes they will be a recap of a prominent issue or on relevant election law. I am turning my eye to the 2023 elections. Today I look at the Town of Camillus, a town that is on the edge of becoming competitive for Democrats.

The Town of Camillus is in the western suburbs.  Though it is a medium sized suburban town with 18,844 voters.  Tt doesn’t share a border with Syracuse nestled between Elbridge, Van Buren, and Geddes. The Town of Camillus is considered a purple town with Democrats recently gaining the smallest of a plurality. The makeup of Camillus is 32% Democrat (6103 Voters), 32% GOP (5963 Voters), and 29% non-Enrolled (5431 voters).  One of the few towns that have a near equal share of the three major political identities.  The Town of Camillus is the second of two towns that are broken up into wards, meaning they elect their town boards in predetermined areas rather than town wide.  There are six town wards in Camillus.  Ward 1 has 3263 voters (17%), Ward 2 2880 voters (15%), Ward 3 3093 voters (17%), ward 4 3245 voters (17%), ward 5 3168 voters (17%), and ward 6 3195 (17%).  These wards are fairly equal because the Town Board of Camillus underwent a redistricting process last year that fixed some of the overpopulation.  The wards are similar to the old ones and make sense in terms of geography and shape.  Though to get equal portions they did create a small balloon appendage in ward 3.

In a new feature I am bringing to the #weeklywonk this year I am doing a heat map for each political subdivision.  I will be looking at the current partisan makeup of each individual ED and heat mapping its partisan lean based on the advantage for the Democrats and GOP.  We see a wide variety of partisan leans in these eds.  Eds 1,2,7 have a strong GOP advantage between 10-14%. Eds 19 & 23 have alight GOP advantage between 0-5%%.  Eds 5, 6, 10, 14, 16, 17, 18, 20, 24, 25 have Democratic enrollment advantages of less than 5% making them borderline eds much like the town itself.  Eds 3,9, 11, 12, 13, 21 & 22, have slight Democratic advantages between 5 & 10%.  Only 1 ed, ED 4 has a solid Democratic advantage between 10-15%.  And in a first in this year’s look at individual eds, we come across an ed with equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans, ed 8.  In general, the western and northern parts of Camillus are more GOP and as you progress into the southeastern corner along with the village of Camillus in the center, we see a more Democratic shift.

Since 2009 The Town of Camillus has seen a radical shift in partisan makeup.  Once a stalwart Republican town, shifting demographics as population shifts saw a growing Democratic population that was supercharged in 2016 gaining 1028 voters.  The GOP on the other hand saw a slow and steady decline losing 498 voters.  The Non-enrolled has been see large gains as well, garnering 998 more voters.   This follows a pattern of other suburban towns like Salina and Manlius.  New voters in terms of age and transplants prefer the Democratic and Non-enrolled registration status as the older GOP population is losing voters and not replacing them.

The wards in Camillus are represented by the GOP, though the representative in Ward 5, Richard Griffo, has won cross endorsement when he has run.  However, these wards reflect the changing nature of Camillus.  Ward 1 and Ward 2, represent the western and northern parts of Camillus have solid GOP leans in their enrollment.   Wards 3,4,5, & 6 all located in the more populous southeastern corners have Democratic pluralities, with Ward 3, the most eastern district, looks the most promising for Democrats with the non-enrolled threatening to overtake the GOP. 

Looking at the growth of voters since the last redistricting cycle we compare it with date from October 2011, before the redistricting of 2012.   The Town of Camillus grew by 2036 active voters since 2011.  Wards 3 the most Democratic and smallest geographic ward, is the biggest gainer with 545 more voters.  Ward 1, the largest geographic ward most GOP ward grew quite a bit, with 471 new voters.  Ward 4 also grew quite a bit with 441 voters.  Ward 2 (+ 179), 5 (+133), 6 (+279) all had moderate growth.  The fluctuations in growth are most likely due to the redistricting earlier this year, mainly to address the overpopulation in Ward 2 and underpopulation in ward 4.

The Town of Camillus Democratic advantage has grown by 8.07% since 2011, which is typical growth we have seen in Onondaga County.   Ward 1, the most GOP district has seen growth in the partisan difference for Democrats as they narrowed the gap by 6.35%.  Ward 2 actually saw GOP growth of .63%, which is mainly due to a Democratic voting block being moved into another ward during redistricting.  The Southeast wards saw the most Democratic growth.  Wards 3 (+8.90%) and Ward 4 (+8.45%) saw strong Democratic growth.  Wards 5 (+12.68%) and Ward 6 (11.41%) saw even stronger Democratic growth. In fact, Wards 3,4,5,6 were all GOP dominated wards in 2011 and now have flipped to have a Democratic plurality.

When we look at the comparative races, we see the duality of a purple town in Onondaga County.  In even years Camillus votes solidly for Democrats at the top of the ticket, and in odd years it votes republican.   In 2022 the Town of Camillus voted for Governor Hochul’s by 50.66%, 3.12% worse than her win in Onondaga County rate of 53.78%. In 2021 the Town of Camillus voted for Anthony Brindisis for Supreme Court by 48.08%, Brindisi was off by 4.42% worse than the county result rate of 52.50%.  In 2020 Camillus voted for President Biden 54.31%, 4.51% points behind his Onondaga County win of 58.88%.  In 2019 Camillus voted for Democrat Mark Kolinski for County clerk by 44.26% losing 3.47% of his Onondaga County rate of 47.73%.  The last head-to-head town office where Democrats contested was Highway Superintendent, and it did not go well for Democrats, losing by over 26%. We see that Camillus is running about 3-4 points behind Onondaga County as a whole because it is near even registration where Onondaga County is more blue leaning registration wise.

In 2023 the Camillus Town Democrats will caucus to find candidates for all 6 ward councils as well as Supervisor, Town Justice, and Highway superintendent.  The Town of Camillus Democrats fill their candidates by caucus.  The Caucus has not yet been scheduled but can be anytime between now and July 27, 2023.  If you are interested in running for any of these offices or want to help the Camillus Democrats contact their chairperson Den Petrick at daniel.e.petrick@gmail.com.

That is, it for this week’s edition of the #WeeklyWonk.  Next week I will dive into the Town of Cicero, the largest GOP town in Onondaga County. As always go to dustinczarny.com and subscribe to get all your content and election news updates.  I run that website, along with these series of articles, as part of my voter education.  I never take ad money or charge subscriptions paying for the site with my own personal funds.  Subscribe here.

Welcome back to the #WeeklyWonk. Each weekend I release an article on a subject relating to elections in Onondaga County and New York State. Often these articles will have detailed stats to consume but sometimes they will be a recap of a prominent issue or on relevant election law. I am turning my eye to the 2023 elections. This week I take a break from looking at the political subdivisions and focus on a work item from the Onondaga County Board of elections. Today I look at the Town of Salina, a town that Democrats should be doing better in but are not.

The Town of Salina sits in the northern suburbs sandwiched between Clay and Syracuse. The town of Salina is the opposite of last week’s investigation, the Town of Spafford. The Town of Salina is one of the larger towns in terms of active voters in Onondaga County with 21,865 voters.  It is a town that looks like a Democratic town but underperforms on the local level.  The makeup of Salina is 36% Democrat (7906 Voters), 27% GOP (5916 Voters), and 30% non-Enrolled (6518 voters).  The GOP has been overtaken by the non-enrolled voters and that should be a sign that Salina should take a blue turn.  The Town of Salina is one of only two towns that are broken up into wards, meaning they elect their town boards in predetermined areas rather than town wide.  There are four town wards in Salina which coincidentally go down in size in terms of Active voters.  Ward 1 has 6050 voters (28%), Ward 2 5480 voters (25%), Ward 3 5171 voters (24%), and ward 4 5164 voters (23%).

In a new feature I am bringing to the #weeklywonk this year I am doing a heat map for each political subdivision.  I will be looking at the current partisan makeup of each individual ED and heat mapping its partisan lean based on the advantage for the Democrats and GOP.  Only two eds, ed Salina 13 & 16 have GOP advantage, and only by less than 1%.  Eds 1,5,10, 12,14,15, 25, 28 & 30 have Democratic enrollment advantages of less than 5% making them borderline eds.  Eds 2, 8, 11, 17, 21, 22 & 27 have slight Democratic advantages between 5 & 10%.  Eds 3, 19, 20, 23, 24, & 29 hove solid Democratic advantages between 10-15%.  Eds 4, 6, 7, & 9, have strong democratic advantages between 15-20%.  Salina even has 2 eds 18 & 26 that have overwhelming Democratic advantages over 20%.

Since 2009 The Town of Salina has followed the county, where Democrats have made gains, that accelerated in 2016, and the GOP has had a slow steady decline.  Since 2009 the Democrats have gained 790 Democratic voters.  The GOP on the other hand during that time frame has lost 1059 voters. The Non-enrolled has been the biggest gainer, garnering 1281 more voters.   Democrats saw their biggest gains between 2015 and 2020 and have held steady since.  The GOP lost dramatically between 2009 and 2015 and then held steady during the Trump years but may be on the decline again. The non-enrolled have had steady gains since 2009 but saw a great deal of their gains since 2020.

The wards in Salina all have solid Democratic enrollments, yet all wards are represented by the GOP for the first time in a generation.  The 1^st and second districts are where Democrats have had some recent success.  Up until 2021 Democrats have held onto the 2^nd district councilor.  The 1^st and 2^nd district were very close elections in 2021.  While Democrats have better numbers in Ward 1 and Ward 2, the non-enrolled are solidly in 2^nd place in Ward 3 & 4. 

Looking at the growth of voters since the last redistricting cycle, 2012, we see that the wards grew at about the same rate.  Once again, they line up in numerical order as the first ward gained 584 voters.  The 2^nd Ward gained 546 voters.  The 3^rd Ward gained 484 voters.  The fourth ward gained 342 voters.  The Town of Salina decided not to change their districts in this last cycle, however it is doubtful they will be able to do that again in 2030.  After the 2020 census all four districts fell within the 5% New York State population guidelines.  However, since the two most populous districts, wards 1 & 2, are growing faster than the others, if that pattern holds, they will be forced to make changes after the 2030 census.

The Town of Salina Democratic advantage has grown by 7.12% since 2012.   Wards 2 & 4 had the same growth in Democratic advantage by 7.52%. The biggest growth comes in Ward 1, which includes the village of Liverpool.  Ward 1 grew by 11.04% since 2012.   Ward 3, which is in the northeastern corner of Salina Democrats have grown at the lowest race, only gaining by 1.81%.

When we look at the comparative races, we see a Town that votes Democratic much like the rest of the county.  However, when it comes to local races Democrats have not been able to gain a foothold, and in face have lost ground.  In 2022 the Town of Salina voted for Governor Hochul’s by 52.75%, just 1.03% worse than her win in Onondaga County rate of 53.78%. In 2021 the Town of Salina voted for Anthony Brindisis for Supreme Court by 50.28%, Brindisi was off by just .32% of the county result rate of 52.50%.  In 2020 Salina voted for President Biden 56.73%, though 2.15% points behind his Onondaga County win of 58.88% which is the worst performance among our comparative races.  In 2019 Salina voted for Democrat Mark Kolinski for County clerk by just 46.59% losing 1.14% of his Onondaga County rate of 47.73%.  Salina seems to run just behind the Onondaga County rates from the major elections, however in local elections the GOP outperforms its registration.  In the 2021 open seat for Salina Town Supervisor the GOP candidate Nick Paro had a decisive win with 56.53% of the vote and a 15-point win.

In 2023 the Salina Town Democrats are currently passing petitions for Supervisor and 4 Town Board members, and Town Justice.  The town of Salina could be where Manlius was in 2015, at the bottom with no representation and then take over town government in the next few years.  However, it will take ground level work and an infusion of members willing to get involved. You can get involved with the Salina Town Democrats by contacting Chris Shepard, the Town Chair at syrvmguy@hotmail.com.

That is, it for this week’s edition of the #WeeklyWonk.  Next week I will dive into the Town of Camillus, the only other town with a ward system, however it fills its candidates by caucus. As always go to dustinczarny.com and subscribe to get all your content and election news updates.  I run that website, along with these series of articles, as part of my voter education.  I never take ad money or charge subscriptions paying for the site with my own personal funds.  Subscribe here.