Welcome back to Wonky Wednesday.  Each week I do a deep dive into the election and registration data that makes up the electoral landscape of our home, Onondaga County.  I hope by looking into this data we can glean that this everchanging county is not monolithic as once thought and competition for Democrats, and all registrations, can be found everywhere.  This week start my #Fliptheleg series looking at each of the 17 Onondaga County Legislative races.  Today I look at Onondaga County Legislative seat #14 the eastern part of the Town of Clay.

At the time of redistricting Casey Jordan (R) was the legislator representing this portion of Onondaga County.  The GOP majority on the redistricting commission saw this as a safe GOP seat and did not alter it, avoiding the weird shapes other districts fell victim to.  However, they did have to add a few voters to it since the legislature was reduced from 19 to 17 members, however not as much as other districts as Clay was one of the fastest growing Towns in Onondaga County.  They added a few districts in southern Central Clay and called it a day relying on the power of incumbency to keep the district.

What was once thought a safe GOP district has changed dramatically.  Democrats now have a small plurality in the district having 33% of the vote.  The GOP is now 2^nd with 31% of the voting population.  The non-enrolled population is gaining on both parties with 29% of the population.  This is one of just 3 districts that are wholly contained in a town, so we must look to other ways to get some insights.  Fortunately, half of the village of North Syracuse is in OCL 14.  That makes up about 16% of the voting population so we do get a decent look at some differences inside the district.

Democrats have overtaken this once solid red district.  Since redistricting Democrats have gained 795 voters. The GOP has gained voters as well, but at a lesser rat, just 358 voters.  The Non-enrolled is the big gainer here with 1061 voters.  As the population in this district grows the makeup seems to change.  While the GOP is holding ground there does seem to be the familiar suburban shift, we saw in reaction to the Trump election in 2016.  Newer voters and transplants tend to favor Democrats while many GOP are shedding their party label because of the national politics.  

The North Syracuse portion of the district is where the Demographic changes are most prevalent.  The small plurality for Democrats in the district comes from this portion.  Democrats have a sizeable plurality of the North Syracuse village portion in OCL 14. Non-enrolled outnumber the GOP here. The remaining portion of the district is a statistical tie with the GOP outnumbering the Democrats by less than 40 registrants. If a Democrat could run even in the rest of the district, they could flip it with the registration advantage in N. Syracuse.

In 2011 and 2013 the Democrats were not organized in Clay and did not run a candidate against Casey Jordan.  In 2015 before the Trump shift political newcomer Kevin Tees lost to Casey Jordan by a little over 800 votes.  However, in the next election another political newcomer Stephanie Heath (D) ran a much closer race losing by just 327 votes.  In fact, Heath won more votes on the Democratic line than Jordan did on the GOP line, but Jordan was reelected on the strength of the conservative and independence party vote.  In what should be seen as a lost opportunity, in 2019 the Democrats failed to capitalize on this momentum by not fielding a candidate allowing Jordan to run unopposed. This does not mean Jordan was popular. In fact facing growing public outcry over the White Pines development and a strong Democratic challenger this year, Jordan decided not to run when a convenient county job opened up for him.  This allowed the GOP to appoint and run the son of a tax collector in Clay for the job.

The comparative races show a district that is becoming more competitive as the Registration patterns start to shift.  Without Democrats running competitive local races in 2019 the GOP candidates in the comparative districts did dominate the county wide races here.  McMahon won by 18 points, Dell by 17, and Beadnell by 12.  However, 2020 does show a different look at the district.  Katko did perform well for congress winning the district by 16 points, however John Mannion came within 1.5 points of winning the district and Joe Biden won the district by almost 6 points.  With a nearly full slate of candidate in Clay this year running as a team we will see if increased activity can make the district perform more like a presidential year than a local one.

Shanelle Benson-Reid is the candidate running for OCL 14.  She is a mother, businesswoman, educator, and dynamic candidate.   Already she is winning union endorsements and putting on a serious campaign.  She can be found on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/FriendsofDr.ShanelleRBensonReid, twitter at https://twitter.com/FriendsOfDrSRBR and on the web at https://friendsofdrshanelle.com/

Welcome back to Wonky Wednesday.  Each week I do a deep dive into the election and registration data that makes up the electoral landscape of our home, Onondaga County.  I hope by looking into this data we can glean that this everchanging county is not monolithic as once thought and competition for Democrats, and all registrations, can be found everywhere.  This week start my #Fliptheleg series looking at each of the 17 Onondaga County Legislative races.  Today I look at Onondaga County Legislative seat #13 which covers the western portion of Onondaga County including Van Buren, Elbridge, and the western part of Camillus.

At the time of redistricting Robert Warner (R) was the legislator representing this portion of Onondaga County.  The GOP majority on the redistricting commission barely altered the district only adding a bit more of conservative parts of Camillus.  It was a safe GOP district for years and remained so, avoiding the weird shapes other districts fell victim to.  The safe GOP nature of the seat though has led to several GOP primaries for the seat.  This unlikely activity is only made possible because the Democrats rarely run candidates here and a slight civil war between the more moderate part of the GOP and conservative members have broken out.

Though we do see some demographic change in this district. the GOP has a sizeable plurality of the district holding 35% of the voting population.  The Democrats have just 29% of the voting population and non-enrolled make up 28%. This district is spread amongst 3 towns. Van Buren dominates the district representing 46% of the voting population.  The western portion of Camillus has 35% of the population, while the entire town of Elbridge only has 19%.

Democrats are gaining in this district, but like OCL 1 in Lysander they started from a large deficit it will be some time before they can catch up.  The GOP added 457 voters, a rarity in the districts we have looked at.  The Democrats though have gained over double that at 990 voters.  The non-enrolled has seen the biggest growth, adding 1303 voters.  The Democrats are gaining in this district, and we could see some significant gains in the future, but it may be a while before Democrats are competitive enrollment wise in the district.

The three Towns of the district all are conservative as well. Van Buren is the dominant in population but the closes t in partisan differences.  The western portion of Camillus though is the more conservative part of this now blue town.  The GOP still dominate this portion of town.  Elbridge is small in population, but its strong GOP lean really sets the tone in this district pushing it from a lean R to a strong R seat.

In 2011 Derick Shepard (R), ran a primary against sitting legislator Robert Warner (R).  He was supported by Ryan McMahon and the more establishment wing of the party.  He won his party and survived a three race against Warner and Jim Scaramuzzino (D).  This was the last time Democrats put up a candidate in this seat, but there was a little bit of intrigue here.  In 2013 and 2015 Derek Shepard ran unopposed and received conservative backing. However, in 2017 Ken Bush (R)challenged Derek Shepard on the GOP line and won the Conservative endorsement as well. The GOP were desperate to keep the seat in their loyal nominees’ hands and waged an expensive campaign with false claims of fraud to keep Bush off the ballot.  The court case was thrown out on appeal and Bush won the GOP primary.  Bush then ran unopposed in 2019.

The comparative races show a district that is as conservative as one would expect, but some signs of hope as well.  In 2019 we saw strong showings for McMahon for county executive and Lisa Dell for County Clerk.  Even Matt Beadnell who lost his comptroller race polled in double digits here. In 2020 congress showed a big loss for Dana Balter as expected.  However, John Mannion performed in single digits in the district.  Joe Biden lost this district by less than 2 points. This means in certain races the non-0enrolled are aligning with the Democrats and creating a formidable block.

Sara Aaserud is the Democratic candidate running in this district.  She is an engineer, mother, business owner, and political newcomer.  She felt it was important to run to offer voters a choice in her district.  She can be found on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/SaraForCountyLeg

Welcome back to Wonky Wednesday.  Each week I do a deep dive into the election and registration data that makes up the electoral landscape of our home, Onondaga County.  I hope by looking into this data we can glean that this everchanging county is not monolithic as once thought and competition for Democrats, and all registrations, can be found everywhere.  This week start my #Fliptheleg series looking at each of the 17 Onondaga County Legislative races.  Today I look at Onondaga County Legislative seat #12 which covers the southeast portion of Onondaga County including Tully, Pompey, Fabius, Lafayette, the lower portion of Dewitt and a tiny portion of Manlius and the City of Syracuse.

At the time of redistricting Robert DeMore (R) was the legislator representing this portion of Onondaga County.  He decided not to run for re-election, this along with the reduction of two seats gave the GOP majority on the redistricting commission opportunities to reshape some districts to stack and crack Democratic areas of the County.  Though this district avoided the weird shapes other districts fell victim to it was altered in significant ways.  The Onondaga portion of the district was removed to shore up OCL 11 and since the district had a strong GOP lean, they put a sizeable portion of Dewitt and the South Campus portion of the City of Syracuse into the district.  This diluted those Democratic areas pairing it with rural GOP dominated portions of the county.

The district is not as blood red as it once was.  The GOP only has a small plurality of the district holding 34% of the voting population.  The Democrats have closed the gap and have 32% of the voting population and non-enrolled make up 27%.  This district is spread amongst 7 towns making it one of the most diverse districts in the county.   The largest portion of the district population resides in Pompey with 28% and Dewitt portion making the second largest portion at 26%.  Lafayette has 19%, Tully 11%, Fabius 7%. And the tiny portions of Manlius 5% and Syracuse 4%.  

The adding of Democratic areas to the district has resulted in a district that has changed dramatically.  The GOP has held steady only losing 274 voters.  The Democrats have gained 1265 voters in the district.  The non-enrolled has gained significantly as well with 820 voters.  This shows that as populations grow once rural and suburban areas are becoming either Democratic or non-enrolled and the GOP has a shrinking plurality.  Newer voters are either enrolling in the Democratic party or not enrolled at all and the older GOP population is shrinking through attrition.

This district really is a story of two halves.  The northern more Democratic part of the district dominated by the annexed portion of DeWitt and the small portions of Syracuse and Manlius represent the Democratic part of the district.  The GOP part of the district is dominated by Pompey and Lafayette with Fabius and Tully as well.  However if we look under the hood we see the GOP towns of Pompey & Tully have had increases in their Democratic population cutting into the blood red portion of the district.

In 2011 Dave Knapp (R), the supervisor of Lafayette was selected to fill the open seat in the newly formed District 12.   Philip Benedict (D) ran a campaign against him, but it was not well funded, and Knapp won easily by 1490 votes.  The Democrats then did not run anyone against Knapp for the next three elections.  In the meantime, he rose to majority leader and then Chairman of the legislature when Ryan McMahon became county executive.    Jennifer Blusk (D) ran a vigorous race in 2019 focused solely on redistricting but still lost by 1298 votes.

The comparative races show a district that is much more moderate than it would at first look.  While McMahon won for County Executive in by a little over 10 points this was about ton average as his win countywide, but far under other suburban districts.  Dell won by 10 points for County Clerk and Beadnell 4 points for County Comptroller, again underperforming their wins in other parts of the county.  In 2020 Balter only lost this district by 9 points with 4 on the WFP line.  This district shares NYS Senate districts but the Democrats of May & Mannion ran even in this district.  Joe Biden won this district by 12 points.  

Dr. Sunny Aslam (D) is the Democratic candidate for this district.  He is a first-time candidate, doctor, and father.  He has already made significant waves by outraising his opponent and mounting a vigorous campaign. Dr. Sunny can be found on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/ElectDrSunny and on the web at  
http://friendsofdrsunny.com/

Welcome back to Wonky Wednesday.  Each week I do a deep dive into the election and registration data that makes up the electoral landscape of our home, Onondaga County.  I hope by looking into this data we can glean that this everchanging county is not monolithic as once thought and competition for Democrats, and all registrations, can be found everywhere.  This week start my #Fliptheleg series looking at each of the 17 Onondaga County Legislative races.  Today I look at Onondaga County Legislative seat #11 which is in most of the Town of Onondaga and a portion of southeast Camillus

At the time of redistricting Patrick Kilmartin (R), the majority leader of the County Legislature, was the incumbent legislator.  This seat needed to add population as it was one of the smaller suburban seats.   The GOP majority on the redistricting commission decided to leave in the portion of Camillus in the seat but add the rest of the Town of Onondaga taking away from District 12.  Though this district avoided many of the  weird shapes other districts fell victim to, it curiously did not add all of Onondaga.  That is because they needed that portion of Onondaga to be able to connect Geddes to the valley in District 15.  When drawn this gave OCL 11 a decidedly conservative configuration.

The district though has changed significantly as most suburban districts have.  Democrats have grown significantly and have now taken a tiny plurality. Democrats account for 33% of the district while Republicans make up just 31%.  Non-enrolled voters account for 29% of the registered voters coming within a couple hundred voters of overtaking the GOP.  The Camillus portion of this district makes up 23% of the voting population while Onondaga takes up 77%.

This suburban district is showing dramatic change from the last redistricting, Democrats have gained 1,015 voters while the GOP has lost 443. Non-enrolled voters have also seen significant growth gaining 938 voters.  Once again the suburban backlash to 2016 seems to be the catalyst for the growth of Democratic enrollment.  However GOP enrollment has seen a steady decline since 2011.  There is also a curious sharp drop off since last year as Democrats have stayed about even and non-enrolled have grown.  This indicates a significant shedding of the party label on the R side of the electorate.

The Camillus portion of the district may be smaller, but it is driving the Democratic lean of the district.  In the Camillus portion Democrats outnumber the GOP by nearly 200 voters and the non-enrolled is less than 100 voters behind.  The Onondaga portion of the district is more even.  Democrats only outnumber the GOP by 5 voters.  The non-enrolled in Onondaga are still several 300 voters behind.  

In 2011 Patrick Kilmartin (R) was challenged by Buffy Quinn (D). The newly formed district worked in the way it was designed by nearly doubling up the margin.  Kilmartin won that race by 1285 votes.  Maggie Mahoney (D) than challenged Kilmartin in 2013 and nearly halved that margin losing by only 677 votes.  The Democrats did not offer a candidate in 2015 and then Kilmartin decided not to run for re-election to become a Town Justice.  In 2017 in an open seat John McBride (R) ran against Chuck Keller (D) and the margin closed to just 408 votes.  In 2019 running as an incumbent McBride bested Irene Workman (D) by 621 votes. In both McBride races though, the Democrats won vote totals on the Democratic Line versus the GOP line, and it was minor parties that brought McBride home.  McBride was also working for then Senator DeFrancisco and Antonacci in his races and benefited from those connections.

The comparative races are our show a district that performs better for the GOP that county averages, but if you look at just suburban districts it is one of the better performers for Democrats.  In 2019 Ryan McMahon won handedly in the district by close to 13 points, better than his overall county win margin but much less than his totals in another suburban district.  The same story for Lisa Dell for County Clerk who won by 16 points, in a rare performance better than McMahon.  Matt Beadnell only won this town by less than 3 points, showing the district rejects ultra-conservative Trumpian candidates.   In 2020 Balter lost this district over 14 points with nearly 5 points on the WFP line, however again it performed better than another suburban district.  John Mannion won a sizable victory for State Senate here winning by nearly 6 points.  President Biden won this district by over 12 points.  This shows this district to be a swing district and ripe for a Democrat to perform well in.

Ryan Suser (D) is the Democratic candidate for this district.  He is a first-time candidate, lawyer, and family man.  He successfully defended the Democrats when the GOP, including his opponent, tried to knock Working Families Party members off the ballot. Ryan can be found at Facebook https://www.facebook.com/RyanSuser & Twitter https://twitter.com/ryansuser & on the web at https://vote-ryan.com/