Welcome back to Wonky Wednesday.  Each week I do a deep dive into the election and registration data that makes up the electoral landscape of our home, Onondaga County.  I hope by looking into this data we can glean that this everchanging county is not monolithic as once thought and competition for Democrats, and all registrations, can be found everywhere.  This week start my #Fliptheleg series looking at each of the 17 Onondaga County Legislative races.  Today I look at Onondaga County Legislative seat #3.

In 2011 this seat was represented by ling term County Legislator William Meyer. The GOP majority on the redistricting commission barely altered this district.  They removed a small piece of the village of Minoa but basically kept this seat intact. While this district avoided the massive redraw that created the weird shapes our districts are in now, that is mainly because this district was already weirdly drawn.  Instead of staying inside the Town of Cicero it has dipped down into the northern portion of Manlius since 2000 when Manlius was a blood red town. This avoided having to encompass the village of North Syracuse, a more Democratic village and keeping that packed into another district.

OCL 3 has a moderate GOP.  34% of registered voters are Republican while 30% are Democrat and 28% non-enrolled.  This small advantage has kept the GOP in power in this district for as long as anyone can remember.  Cicero which makes up 88% of the district in terms of registered voters is one of the few large towns where GOP enrollment has been steady.  The small portion of Manlius in this district was once blood red but now has a small Democratic lean as the Town of Manlius has changed dramatically over time.

This district has been remarkably stable in terms of partisan enrollment.  Both the Democrats and GOP have gained in enrollment during and since the 2016 presidential election.  While Democrats have started to close the gap, it is by inches and not miles.  The Non-enrolled has closed the margin on both the Democrats and GOP but again also by only a few percentage points.  The interesting part of this district is there does seem to be a slide by the GOP since the last election and while Democrats have continued to rise.  This could be a reaction to the January 6^th insurrections or a movement out of the GOP by conservatives who more ally with Trump then their party.

The Cicero portion of the district not only dominates in overall population and that allows it to heavily influence the partisan lean of the district.  Not surprisingly the GOP dominates the Cicero portion of the district.  This overwhelms both in number and partisan advantage the Democratic plurality in the Manlius portion of the district.  The irony here is that the hopes of avoiding a more Democratic friendly portion of Cicero made 20 years ago has dived the district into a Democratic area and opened it up to a fresh faced challenger, Matt Johnson, from the Manlius portion of the district.

The representation of this district has been on a whirlwind since 2011.  In 2011 longtime OCL representative Bill Meyer faced a tough challenge from former Cicero Supervisor Joan Kessel.  After barely winning his re-election he took a county job from Joannie Mahoney to open up the seat in 2013 (practice described as “a tradition of appointing long-time county legislators to county jobs.” by Syracuse.com that is alive and well today.  Joannie Mahoney appointed Chet Dudzinski who lost a primary to Jim Corl who ran unopposed in 2013.  Jim Corl decided not to finish his term after finding employment as a law clerk for Onondaga Family Court.  Tim Burtis the deputy supervisor for Cicero was chosen to fill out the term and is the current legislator.  He barely survived his first election challenged by long time Elections Commissioner Ed Szczesniak (D).  Burtis first re-election in 2017 was not as close, despite a conservative party candidate splitting the vote.  In 2019 Burtis easily won re-election as the Democratic Candidate Gary Williams barely survived a challenge to his petitions and was unable to recover and mount a campaign. To show how insular this region is in GOP representation, Bill Meyer replaced Tim Burtis as deputy supervisor of Cicero in 2015 is now the supervisor for the Town of Cicero.

Unfortunately, the wild election results for the county legislature are not matched in this district with other races.  OCL 3 has consistently supported GOP candidates outside of the County Legislative race.  In 2019 the GOP had a clean sweep of the County races, though a small decrease for the County Comptroller race.  Democrats lost all three comparative races in 2020 as well.  Even Biden lost this district by over 4 points.  For a Democrat to be successful in this district they will have to build a coalition with the non-enrolled and convince them to go against their base ideologies to make a local choice.  However, we have seen in the past this district has shown signs of doing just that.

The Democratic nominee for County Legislature in the 3^rd district is Matt Johnson.  This is his first run for public office but has received national endorsements from Run For Something and has already outraised his GOP opponent since getting into the race.  He can be found on Facebook at facebook.com/MattForLegislator, on Twitter at twitter.com/matt4countyleg and on the web at www.votemattjohnson.com.  Follow his campaign to learn how to help.

Welcome back to Wonky Wednesday.  Each week I do a deep dive into the election and registration data that makes up the electoral landscape of our home, Onondaga County.  I hope by looking into this data we can glean that this everchanging county is not monolithic as once thought and competition for Democrats, and all registrations, can be found everywhere.  This week start my #Fliptheleg series looking at each of the 17 Onondaga County Legislative races.  Today I look at Onondaga County Legislative seat #2

In 2011 John Dougherty, a popular County Legislator, was the incumbent in OCL 2.  The GOP majority redistricting commission made small but important alterations to this district.  The desire to make OCL 4 a more GOP leaning district resulted in packing 3 more Clay EDS with large populations into OCL 2.  This made it an even district, but they banked on the popularity of John Dougherty and power of incumbency to keep this district in the GOP column.  OCL 2 was not changed drastically in the redistricting, unlike many other districts that had weird shapes, in fact this shape is one of the more reasonable.

OCL 2 has a strong DEM plurality to it now though. 36% of registered voters are Democrat while 29% are Democrat and 28% non-enrolled.  This Democratic plurality is not coinciding with democratic representation.  The Town of Clay is tremendously expensive to run in overall and the Democratic committee failed to offer candidates many years.  That is starting to change this year.  This district is one of the few wholly inside a town.  This makes it hard to look at regional differences inside the district but is better for the residents of the district.

The Democratic plurality in OCL 2 is a recent phenomenon.  As we saw from my previous Wonky Wednesday:  The Town of Clay that like many large suburban towns, Democrats have had major strides in registration.  Like the Town of Clay, OCL 2 is seeing dramatic registration changes since 2016. Since its drawing in 2011 the GOP has a very modest gain of 167 voters compared to the Democrats gain of 1396. Just behind the Democrats is the growth of the non-enrolled population gaining 1224 voters.  Not only are the non-enrolled poised to overtake the GOP registrations in this district, but the GOP has also lost voters since last election while Democrats and Non-enrolled continue to gain.

Since the redistricting in 2011 the Democrats have failed to mount a challenge until recently.  James Rowley, a former Clay Town Supervisor and CFO for Onondaga County, succeeded John Dougherty in 2017 and Democrats failed to mount a challenge, again. In 2019 Nodesia Hernandez offered the first Democratic challenger in over a decade on this seat.  Rowley won his first challenge but has since broken a pledge to form an independent redistricting commission as well as other controversial votes.  Jay Snyder, a political newcomer, is challenging Rowley this year.

This district when offered challengers does vote for Democratic candidates.  In 2019 the district supported Ryan McMahon for County Executive and Lisa Dell for County Clerk, however Matt Beadnell continued to lag.  The biggest glimmer of hope is from the last election.  Not only did the district support President Joe Biden and NYS Senator John Mannion by wide margins, but it also even performed well in the congressional race.  Dana Balter lost the district to Katko but if we add the 3^rd party votes cast on the WFP line Katko barely won this district.  The key for Snyder and any Democrat running in this district is to offer a contrast and motivate and engage voters who don’t historically turnout in local election years as well as appealing to the growing Non-enrolled voter base.

The Democratic nominee for County Legislature in the 2^nd district is Jay Snyder. A healthcare professional and former educator. He can be found on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/JayForCountyLeg and on twitter at  https://twitter.com/JayForCountyLeg Follow his campaign to learn how to help.

Welcome back to Wonky Wednesday.  Each week I do a deep dive into the election and registration data that makes up the electoral landscape of our home, Onondaga County.  I hope by looking into this data we can glean that this everchanging county is not monolithic as once thought and competition for Democrats, and all registrations, can be found everywhere.  This week start my #Fliptheleg series looking at each of the 17 Onondaga County Legislative races.  Today I look at Onondaga County Legislative seat #1

In 2011 Richard Lesniak, the GOP Floor leader, occupied OCL 1. Once the GOP majority on the redistricting commission announced its redistricting plan, Lesniak decided to not run for re-election and Brian May (R) has served on the legislature ever since. OCL 1 It covers all of the Town of Lysander and a small portion of Clay. OCL 1 was not changed drastically in the redistricting, unlike many other districts that had weird shapes.  Besides extending a small protrusion into western Clay, the district has basically the same borders.

OCL 1 has a strong GOP plurality to it.  36% of registered voters are Republican while 31% are Democrat and 26% non-enrolled.  This domination has led many to believe this is a safe GOP seat. For as long as anyone can remember this seat has been held by the GOP.  Lysander also dominates the district making up 85% of the voter population with 15% in the small portion of Clay that is included in the district.

Democrats are gaining on the GOP in this district.  As we saw from my previous Wonky Wednesday:  The Town of Lysander the town is undergoing changes too, but has traditionally been dominated by the GOP.   The pace of the Democratic growth since 2011 has been about the same pace as the county as well.  On top of that, since the election, there seems to be a definite shift out of the GOP into the non-enrolled category as well as increase enrollments by Democrats.  However, Democrats started in a large deficit in this Leg district, and it will take many more years for demographic gains alone to catch up.

The Lysander portion of the district not only dominates in overall population, but it also dominates the partisan trends of the district as well.  While the Clay portion of the district is more Demographic, their vote is diluted by the overwhelmingly GOP portion of Lysander.  It is unlikely this was done on purpose in the redistricting as Lysander alone does not have enough voters in 2010 to warrant their own district and has traditionally had that same portion of Clay.  That being said it is a dilution for the Democratic votes in the western portion of Clay.

Since Brian May was nominated to replace Richard Lesniak in 2011, he ran unopposed all but one election.  As we will see in upcoming articles, this is all too often the case with some of these districts drawn to be dominated by the GOP.  In 2019 Justin Neal ran on the Democratic and WFP lines to give Brian May his first real challenge.  May won in convincing fashion but has since broken a pledge to form an independent redistricting commission as well as other controversial votes.  Justin Neal is challenging him again in 2021 in hopes of taking advantage of the changing demographics as well as banking on name recognition he gained in the first run.  

Neal does have a glimmer of hope in this district.  While a GOP heavy district it tends to reject the more Trumpian conservative candidates.  As we look at our 5 comparative races there is reason for some cautious optimism.  In 2019 the district supported Ryan McMahon for County Executive and Lisa Dell for County Clerk, however Matt Beadnell lagged.  The biggest glimmer of hope is from the last election.  While Congress was the typical blowout, Senator Mannion came within 1.5% of Angie Renna and President Biden won this district by 4.5%.  Neal will have to appeal to the Presidential voters as well as convince non-enrolled that May is out of touch with the changing ideology of the district.

The Democratic nominee for County Legislature in the 1^st district is Justin Neal, the current Town of Lysander Democratic Chair.  He can be found on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/NealforNY and on the web at https://www.nealforny.com/.  Follow his campaign to learn how to help.