Welcome back to Wonky Wednesday.  Each week I do a deep dive into the election and registration data that makes up the electoral landscape of our home, Onondaga County.  I hope by looking into this data we can glean that this everchanging county is not monolithic as once thought and competition for Democrats, and all registrations, can be found everywhere.  This week I investigate the Town of Manlius..

The Town of Manlius sits on the Eastern border of Onondaga County.  This is one of the largest towns in Onondaga County, second only to Clay.  There are three villages in this town, Fayetteville, Manlius, and Minoa.  The three villages along with the numerous housing developments give this town a definitive suburban feel.  Some of the county’s most affluent citizenry live here and for generations this has been known as a GOP dominated town…till recently that is.

Manlius has seen a large growth in registered voters over the last few years as has Onondaga County as a whole.  The ample housing and well-regarded school district has garnered the attention of new residents as well as those moving out of the City of Syracuse.  This along with growing rental communities has transformed this bright red town to not just purple but a growing shade of blue.

It certainly will surprise many long time Onondaga County political activists to learn that Democrats don’t just outnumber the GOP, they have now come to dominate with a 7% registration plurality.  The town itself is split up into three different legislative districts all held by Republicans.  OCL 10 takes up most of the center of town and is currently an open seat with longtime legislator Kevin Holmquist retiring.  OCL 3 is the northern part of Manlius and folds into Cicero represented by Tim Burtis.  Finally, one solitary ED on the southern part of town is in OCL 12 occupied by Dave Knapp.

Since 2009 the GOP has been in a steady decline in the Town of Manlius.  Older voters either moving away or passing on have made way to a bumper crop of new residents that have a farther left ideology.  The Democrats remarkable gains since 2016 in our county can be seen in the Manlius electorate.  Unlike some other towns the GOP has not matched that gain and has continued to decline since 2016 as well.  In fact the non-enrolled voter segment threatens to soon overtake GOP registration if trends continue.  It’s obvious that newer residents are Democratic, and many GOP residents are shedding their party label and becoming non-enrolled.

Manlius will likely be a major battleground in the fight for control of the Onondaga County legislature.  OCL 10 has been nail bitingly close the last two elections and one can see why.  The Democratic enrollment has skyrocketed.  With it now being an open seat, it is seen as one of the best shots for Democrats to flip a GOP controlled seat.  This is one of only two seats that is wholly contained inside a town.  Manlius is so large it would be impossible for it to be represented by just one legislator, however the redistricting commission in 2011 split the remaining segments into two different county legislative seats.  In both cases the segments of Manlius that were sent to other districts were paired with much more GOP leaning areas of the county.

It is not just in registration that Democrats have seen gains in the Town of Manlius, but also in performance.  In our significant six races the Manlius has been one of the best performing towns outside of Dewitt.  In 2019 the County Executive and County Clerk races race were awfully close, and Marty Masterpole’s performance in Manlius is one of the main reasons he defeated Matt Beadnell.  In 2019 the Town board was swept by Democrats flipping a 5-1 GOP majority to 5-1 Democratic majority.  In 2020 Democratic dominance continued.  Manlius was one of two towns Dana Balter won, and John Mannion’s dominance in Manlius propelled the 50th Senate seat into Democratic hands for the first time ever.  Finally, Joe Biden won over 60% of the vote, one of the best showing in Onondaga County.

The Town of Manlius Democrats have already nominated candidates as they designate candidates by petition.  Current Town Board member John Deer is running for Supervisor in an open seat as the current supervisor has decided not to seek re-election.  Katelyn Kriesel and Sara Bollinger are running for re-election to the Town Board and newcomer William Nicholson is running for the third seat.  David Rothchild is running for Town Judge which is also an open seat.  If you wish to get involved with the Manlius Democratic Committee contact chair Prerna Deer at  prerna.deer@gmail.com and the Manlius Democratic Committee can be found on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/ManliusDems

Welcome back to Wonky Wednesday.  Each week I do a deep dive into the election and registration data that makes up the electoral landscape of our home, Onondaga County.  I hope by looking into this data we can glean that this everchanging county is not monolithic as once thought and competition for Democrats, and all registrations, can be found everywhere.  This week I look into the Town of Lysander.

Lysander sits in the Northwest corner of our county and is one of the larger towns.  The Village of Baldwinsville straddles its border with Van Buren, one of two such villages that cross town lines in our county.  Lysander is the only large town that sits wholly in a county legislative district (1).  Since it is not split by a ward system either ad has 18 election districts it is hard to break up into pieces and has to be looked at as a whole.

Like many areas of Onondaga County we have seen an increase in registered voters in this town over the last decade.  A steady stream of registration mirrors the population shifts that have grown the school district as well.  The town itself is a mix of suburban neighborhoods and rural agrarian sections and it will take the upcoming census to see if this is a true trend in higher population or just a normal growth in registrations we see in Presidential cycles.

Lysander is often seen as the most republican town.  While Cicero is larger in overall population, Lysander has a more dominant registration in terms of percentage.  This combined with a decent Conservative population, Lysander on its face may not give much hope for Democrats.  That may be changing though.

It certainly was true in the past that the GOP dominated this town population wise.  However over the last 10 years Democratic registration has grown at a 3:1 pace over GOP registration closing the gap to just half of what it once was.  We see a similar growth in non-enrolled registration.  It is important to note that there seems to be a sharper decrease in GOP population since October of last year.  Whether that is a result of a national trend in GOP registration drops since the January 6th insurrection or normal fluctuations is hard to say at this juncture.  

Republicans have dominated our significant six comparative races we have looked at.  In n2019 they swept the three races there handily.  This is one of the few spots where County Executive Ryan McMahon did worse than County Clerk Lisa Dell, but that can be chalked up to homecourt advantage since Lisa Dell was the Town Clerk for a long time.  In 2020 the GOP won congress and the NYS Senate race there handily as well.  There is one glimmer of hope.  President Biden won the Town of Lysander, despite the enrollment disadvantage.  This indicates a segment of infrequent non0enrolled voters who will reject more conservative Trumpian candidates when offered a real opportunity.

In the recent past the Democrats through a coalition of independents and former GOP members actually won control of the Lysander Town Board and Supervisor.  The hope for Democrats to win in Lysander does seem to rest on that model.  In Lysander this year Town Clerk, Town Justice, two Town Councilors, and Highway Superintendent are on the ballot.  Democrats hold their nominations by caucus.  If you are interested in getting involved contact Lysander chair Justin Neal at justinkn@hotmail.com and the Lysander Democratic Committee can be found at https://www.facebook.com/LysanderDems

Welcome back to my Wonky Wednesday series where I dive into the election and registration data that makes up the electoral landscape of Onondaga County.  This week I take a look at the agrarian town of Lafayette.  This small town is the host of one of our Early Voting sites and south of Syracuse.  It is one of only four towns in our county that does not have a village nor is split up by County Legislature districts.  This makes the town hard to dissect for campaigns and candidates.

The Town of Lafayette voter enrollment was basically stagnate over the last decade.  There was a moderate bump in voter enrollment that plateaued in 2016.  We saw a much greater bump this last year in enrollment.   When the Census data is released it will be interesting to see whether this reflected a population shift or just non registered voters taking advantage of better access to voter registration options.

The Town of Lafayette is a comfortably GOP town.  Democrats actually are outnumbered by the non-enrolled in this town.  When you throw in the Conservative numbers and virtual non-existent WFP party the ideological divide becomes more of a chasm. There are 5 election districts in Lafayette that are relatively even in size.

Republican enrollments in the town had been receding or stagnate since 2009.  Non-enrolled and Democrats were closing the gap on the GOP until 2020. In 2020 GOP Dems and N/e all increased their voter enrollment at the same rate.  There has been some slippage by the GOP post election but we really won’t know whether that means anything until the summer as more registrations are processed.

None of the election districts of Lafayette really stand out as sources for Democratic votes.  .  The 3^rd election district is the largest and represents the center of town where 81 exits into the Rt 20 the main drag of the town of Lafayette.  EDS 1 2 & 5 are more rural representing the farms and orchards of the town.  ED 4 near Jamesville Reservoir is slightly more suburban then the rest of the town.  Of those ED 4 is the place where Democrats are closest to the GOP, but even there the gap is substantial.

The election results of our significant six races are not typical of other areas of town.  In 2019 County Executive McMahon actually ran behind the County clerk race indicating another place where more rural voters were not as trustful of the CE.  County Comptroller Masterpole ran surprisingly well given the partisan lean of the town.  Interesting in 2020 Senator Rachel May out performed Joe Biden in the district. This indicates to me a form of negative partisanship permeates the electorate but Democrats can cut into the margins if they are local and known to the populace.

The best hopes for Democratic success in Lafayette is to appeal to the large and growing non-enrolled community and look for local issues to rally around.  In 2021 the town of Lafayette has the following up for election: Supervisor, 3 Town Councilors, Highway Superintendent, and Tax Collector.  The Lafayette Democratic Committee appoints candidates by caucus. IF you are interested contact the chair Bruce Donahue at bpdcpa@twcny.rr.com and the Lafyette Democratic Committee can be found on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/lafaydems