Welcome back to Wonky Wednesday.  This is my weekly deep dive into the election and registration data that makes up the electoral landscape of Onondaga County.  Today I dive into the Town of Geddes.  One of the more dense suburban towns in Onondaga County.  Dominated by the largest village in Onondaga County, the wild village of Solvay (more on that later this summer) and the NYS Fairgrounds.  This town is undergoing so dramatic recent change in the wake of the 2020 election..

Geddes experiences a mini surge of registered voters in the 2020 election.  Unlike other suburban towns that saw steadier increases over the last few years, Geddes saw a jump of over 500 voters or a increase of over 4.3% in just one year.  This is more like what we normally see during a presidential year.  A big one time jump followed by a slow decline.  The jump happened and we will have to see if the decline does as well.

The Town of Geddes flipped to be a plurality Democratic town in 2016.  Democrats currently have a decent 3% lead on GOP enrollment.  However there is an outsized conservative party enrollment which almost closes the gap.  Geddes, like most of the suburban Democratic towns, are split into multiple election districts.  OCL 8 (Chris Ryan) and OCL 15 (Bill Kinne) are represented by Democrats and have substantial city portions of their districts.  OCL 4 wraps around Onondaga lake and into Salina and is the more GOP portion of the town.  This seat though is open this year as long time County Legislator Tassone is retiring.

The story of the town enrollment in Geddes follows the story of suburbs all across Onondaga County and really the nation.  THE GOP enrollment has stagnated over the last 6 years while Democrats were on a slow rise which exploded over the last two years.  Also growing in that time period is the non-enrolled population.  IT seems new enrollments in this town are overwhelming Democrat and non-enrolled as the GOP struggles to tread water.

The three County Legislative districts in Geddes are pretty unique.  OCL 4 is the Northern Lakeland portion of the Town.  This tends to be more suburban and upper-class area that has a definitive GOP lean.  OCL 8 is more even with a slight Democratic lean combining the southern portion of Geddes.  When paired with the city portion of the district is seen as a safe Democratic seat.  OCL 15 has the Village of Solvay and was once represented by current CE Ryan McMahon however once he left the Democrats were able to easily win this district back with Bill Kinne and it is seen as a safer Democratic seat.

The Town of Geddes performs like the typical swing town in our significant six races.  In 2019 CE McMahon was able to easily win the Town but Marty Masterpole was able to also win a majority here.  Perhaps most telling is how close the county clerk race was with little money spent this was a surprisingly close race in this town.  IN 2020 Democrats did much better with significant wins by Biden and John Mannion.  Geddes is the hometown for Mannion (not Camillus as I previously reported) so that helped swing results his way.  Like most towns Balter did not far well against Katko here.  

Democrats must capitalize on the recent Democratic surge in this town to take be successful.  This means increasing turnout and winning over the ever increasing non-enrolled voter.  In 2021 the supervisor, two town justices, and three town councilors are up for election.  The Democrats elect candidates by Caucus in this town.  If you are interested in running contact Geddes Town Democrat chair John Ferguson at  jferg393@gmail.com and the Solvay Geddes Committee can be found on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/geddesdems

Welcome back to Wonky Wednesday.  Every week I take a look at the election and registration data that makes up the electoral landscape of Onondaga County.  I am currently working my way through the 19 Towns of Onondaga County having already did the City of Syracuse.  After that we will look at all 17 County Legislature races.  Up this week is the Town of Fabius.

The Town of Fabius is the tiniest town in terms of registered voters in Onondaga County.  How small is it?  Not only is it the smallest of the 19 Towns in Onondaga County but 18 of the 19 individual wards in the City of Syracuse also outnumber Fabius (15th Ward is the exception).  It is even smaller than 9 of the 15 villages in Onondaga County. While there has been some growth in recent years it is typical of all sub-divisions in Onondaga County.

The GOP dominates the Town of Fabius with a large plurality of the registered voters.  The Democrats barely outnumber the non-enrolled in this rural town.  This town is wholly inside the 12th legislative district but is split in two by two election districts that splits the town in two equally populous halves.  

The dominance of the GOP in this town is generational and it is reflected in the enrollment data going back to 2009.  In the rise of Democrats in Onondaga county that we saw in 2016 we have seen a slight increase in Democratic population here as well.  This though has barely kept up with the rise in GOP enrollment.  Fabius is also one of the few towns that have gotten more Republican since the election, though data is limited.  

In the two election districts in Fabius the GOP is almost equally as dominant.  ED 1 contains the village of Fabius and villages tend to be more Democratic.  Here it seems it is resulting in more non-enrolled but not a substantial portion of Democrats.  The village of Fabius is one of the few villages not solely inside of an election district and that may be changed next year.  However there is also talk of dissolving this village as well.

As you might imagine the Town of Fabius performs poorly with our significant six races.  In the 2019 low turnout models the county wide GOP candidates had dominant performances in the usual order of County Exec, County Clerk, and County Comptroller.  Even in the 2020 high turnout models Republicans had dominant performances.  This is one of the few towns where Biden did not win in 2020 showing how strong the GOP brand is in this town.

For Democrats to win in this area a candidate will have to focus on winning over non-enrolled as well as a significant portion of GOP.  It is not impossible but a campaign around local issues will need to be at the forefront.  IN 2021 the Town Supervisor, Clerk, Highway Superintendent, Justice, and two of the Town Councilors are on the ballot.  Democrats nominate by caucus in the Town of Fabius which can be scheduled anytime between now and mid-July.  If you are interested in helping out contact Fabius Democratic Town Chair Markey Dormer at mbdormer@gmail.com