Welcome back to Wonky Wednesday.  Each week I take a look at the registration and election data that makes up the electoral makeup of Onondaga County.  Today I focus on one of the 3 largest town in our County, Cicero NY.  This town is the largest GOP town and one of the few areas of the county where the GOP is not losing ground on an annual basis.  It does not have a ward system but is cut in two by two different county legislature districts, OCL 3 and OCL 5.  Though because of our shall we say “unique” legislative districts, neither one is wholly inside the town.

The town of Cicero follows the trend of large suburban towns experiencing registration surges over the last few years.  Like most areas of Onondaga County the registration surge started in 2016 and continues until 2021.  Easier registration options such as MYDMV is likely the major cause with population migration toward large suburban towns.  Cicero trails only Manlius and Clay in overall registered voters.

The town of Cicero has a definite GOP lean.  34% of its registrants are enrolled in the GOP with only 30% Democrat.  There is a strong Conservative party presence here with over 500 conservatives 2nd only to Clay and a higher percentage.  A vast growing non-enrolled population makes up 28% of the enrollment.  Only 1/4 of the population of Cicero resides in OCL 5 which makes up the southwest corner of the town and 3/4 of the population resides in OCL 3 which makes up the rest of the town.

Unlike other areas of Onondaga County the GOP population has grown in Cicero instead of remaining stagnant or losing population.  Democrats have increased their population and kept pace though recent data seems they may have lost ground last year.  The Non-Enrolled population is the fastest growing segment over the last few years as well.  If Democrats want to have success in the future of Cicero it will depend on activating that segment of the population as a swing vote in future elections.

The two County Legislature districts portions of Cicero are quite different in enrollment.  OCL 5 contains the portion of the Village of North Syracuse (half of it resides in Clay) and is more of a suburban setting with population centers and developments.  OCL 3 portion of Cicero is more rural and has a definitive GOP lean.  I will delve more into the whole portions of these OCL districts later this summer.

The “Significant Six” races that we use as a comparison to see how this town reacts electorally is not pretty for Democrats.  This is one of only 5 towns that have none of the 6 that resulted in a Democratic plurality.  No matter the race Democrats came up on the short end.  That being said the Town of Cicero did have a Democratic supervisor in the recent past and that person Judy Boyke, has won election to the Town Board.  So local races can still be successful.  

In 2021 the Town Supervisor, Town Clerk, Receiver of Taxes, Highway Superintendent, and two Town Councilors are all up for election this year.  Only one of the Town Board members (Judy Boyke) is held by a Democrat.  The Town of Cicero Democratic Committee fills local races by caucus and us until mid-July to hold a caucus meeting.  Perspective candidates should talk to Nate Riley Town of Cicero chair about either becoming part of the committee or running for office.  He can be reached at nate@cicerodems.org.

Welcome back to Wonky Wednesday where I dive into the registration and election data that makes up the County of Onondaga.  For the next few months I will be taking a look at the individual 19 Towns of Onondaga.  This week I focus on the Town of Camillus.  Located in the Northwest corner of our county the Town of Camillus is one of the growing suburban towns that is helping to redfine the partisanship of Onondaga County.  Represented by three different County leg districts despite it’s small size, it is also part of the redistricting conversations we will have later this fall.

The growth of the Town of Camillus voting population is obvious in this slide.  The registration tools that have been passed since 2016 has resulted in a higher percentage of the Camillus voting eligible population to register, and remain registered.  They are also benefitting from the phenomenon of the growing suburban trend as families and professionals tend to choose to locate there instead of stagnate populations in Syracuse and rural towns.

It may surprise some to find out that the Town of Camillus is basically even in party enrollment.  Democrats nearly have caught the GOP in this once dominant GOP town.  However as Conservatives still out number Working Families parrty so there will remain an advantage for conservative Republicans in the town, however slight, for the time being.  Camillus is one of only two towns to portion themselves into wards for electing their town board candidates as opposed to all running at large.  There are 6 wards in the Town of Camillus ranging from 2700 voters to 3500 voters.  This makes it a little easier to run for Town Board as running at large can often be daunting.

There is some variation within the wards.  Ward 1 & 2 have a decidedly republican advantage.  Likewise Ward 4 & 4 Democrats have an enrollment advantage.  Wards 5 & 6 are virtually tied.  Despite some advantages in a few wards Democrats are not represented on the Town Board.  Dick Griffo in Ward 5 has run with Democratic support.  However currently no Democrats serve in town government.

Like all the towns overall Camillus is getting bluer.  A dramatic increase in Democratic Voter Registration since 2016 is a similar tale throughout most of Onondaga County and it is true here as well.  Republican enrollment has fallen slightly allowing Democrats to be on the verge of catching up.  Non-Enrolled voters are the key to future Democratic victories.  A coalition of left leaning non-enrolled as well as increasing Democratic turnout is the correct recipe for candidates for local office.

In fact we already see that coalition helping in recent races.  For all my town analysis I will be looking at 6 races over the last two elections and how the town has supported candidates.  in 2019 I look at the County Executive (GOP Lean) County Clerk (Middle of the road) and County Comptroller (Democratic Win)/  In 2020 I look at Congress (GOP win), NYS Senate (middle of the road) and Presidential contest (Lean Democrat).  This allows us to see how the town reacts in a low turnout year and a high turnout year.

What skews the results here are the residences of some of the sample candidates.  In fact Kolinski, Beadnell, Katko, and Mannion all reside in Camillus.  Still we saw that Camillus almost went blue in the comptroller race despite the residence of Beadnell.  Surely when a strong GOP candidate runs as in the 2019 CE and 2020 Congressional race the town still reverts to it’s GOP roots.  However its close race for 2019 comptroller shows the Town has a swing vote component to it.  The strong support for Mannion and Biden also shows that strong Democrats with resources can further tap into that swing vote.

In 2021 the Supervisor, the Town Clerk, all 6 Town Board members, and Highway Superintendent are on the ballot.  Democrats fill these offices by caucus and have until mid July to hold a caucus.  Interested candidates should contact Town Chair Diane Dwire about either joining the Camillus Town Democratic committee or running for office.  She can be found at dmd07@aol.com and the Camillus Democratic Committee can be found on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/camillusdemocrats