Welcome back to #WeeklyWonk, my weekly column examining political data published on dustinczarny.com. Each week, I explore a political subdivision or election event in Central New York or across New York State, using voter registration data and election results to tell a broader story about our political landscape. This week, I turn to the race likely to generate the most attention in our region: New York’s 22nd Congressional District. In 2024, John Mannion flipped this district from red to blue after a decade of Republican control. If he wins reelection it will be the first time a Democratic Congressperson has won reelection since 1980. As he prepares to take a run at history, it’s worth taking a closer look at how the district is currently structured and what the numbers tell us.

According to data from the New York State Board of Elections as of February 20, 2026, NY-22 has 488,683 registered voters. Democrats hold a plurality with 170,584 voters (35%). Republicans follow with 146,793 (30%), and non-enrolled voters are close behind at 141,095 (29%). Smaller parties make up the remainder: Other (19,196; 4%), Conservative (8,558; 2%), and Working Families (2,457; less than 1%). Geographically, NY-22 spans five counties: all of Onondaga and Madison counties, along with parts of Oneida, Cortland, and Cayuga. Onondaga County overwhelmingly dominates the district, accounting for 73% (308,109) of all voters. The Oneida portion contributes 17% (81,933), Madison 8% (44,228), Cayuga 7% (32,744), and Cortland 4% (21,669).

Any discussion of NY-22 must include redistricting. The Onondaga-based district has undergone three major configurations in recent years. The former NY-24 was created through a bipartisan legislative agreement in 2012. The contentious nature of that process led to the establishment of the New York Independent Redistricting Commission (IRC). However, in 2022, the IRC failed to produce a consensus map due to partisan divisions. The New York Supreme Court ultimately drew interim districts, and the Court of Appeals later directed the IRC to complete its work in time for the 2024 elections. Since 2016, the district has grown significantly, adding 59,752 voters—a 29.64% increase—due in part to redistricting changes and expanded voter registration access. By comparison, Onondaga County alone grew by just 7.63% during the same period.

A geographic and partisan “heat map” of the district highlights its diversity. Onondaga County leans solidly Democratic by about 10–14%, while Madison County leans strongly Republican by a similar margin. The remaining counties are more competitive: the Cayuga and Cortland portions fall in the GOP +0–4% range, while the Oneida portion (including Utica) sits in the Democratic +0–4% range.

Looking at the county breakdown underscores just how dominant Onondaga County is. It contains more voters in each major category—Democrat, Republican, and non-enrolled—than any of the other counties individually. The smaller counties are relatively balanced and therefore exert limited influence on the overall partisan makeup. While Madison County shows a strong Republican lean (+13.58%), its size is not large enough to offset Onondaga’s Democratic advantage (+10.05%), which ultimately drives the district’s overall partisan tilt.

Over time, the Onondaga-based district has shown a clear trend toward Democrats. This shift began under the old NY-24 boundaries and continued through subsequent redistricting cycles. While the 2022 court-drawn map slightly favored Democrats, the 2024 IRC map provided the most advantageous configuration yet. Since 2016, Democratic registration has grown by 25,089 voters, compared to a Republican increase of 6,506. The largest growth, however, has been among non-enrolled voters, which increased by 33,224. Despite these gains, the district’s overall partisan lean has shifted more modestly. In 2021, Democrats (including Working Families and Conservative cross-endorsements) held a +1.62% advantage. By 2024, that margin had increased to +5.75%.

While I don’t currently have the tools to fully analyze comparable past races across changing district lines, we can still draw meaningful insights from recent elections—particularly within Onondaga County. Mannion’s decisive +9.11% victory in 2024 cannot be explained solely by the district’s modest Democratic lean. Instead, the key lies in Onondaga County’s performance. In 2018, Dana Balter won Onondaga County, and in 2020 she likely would have done so again if not for a split Working Families Party line caused by a paperwork issue. In 2022, Democrat Conole carried Onondaga by +12.00%, and in 2024, Mannion expanded that margin to an overwhelming +18.78%. Given Onondaga County’s size and influence, this trend has been central to the district’s Democratic resurgence.

That’s it for this week’s #WeeklyWonk. Next week, I’ll continue my nine-part series on New York State offices, beginning with State Senate District 48, which includes parts of Syracuse and extends west into Cayuga County. As always, you can subscribe at dustinczarny.com for more updates and analysis.

Welcome back to the #weeklywonk. This is my weekly article on dustinczarny.com about statistics and data. Each week I dive into the electoral and registration data on a political subdivision or election relevant to 2026. Currently I am in the middle of diving into the New York Stat races appearing on the Onondaga County Ballot this year. This week I am diving into part two of this nine-part series, the NYS Supreme Court race in the fifth judicial district.

We select our Supreme court seats in New York (which is the lowest court level) in judicial districts. These massive districts are the largest political subdivisions in New York State. The 5^th Judicial district spans six counties, Herkimer, Jeffereson, Lewis, Oneida, Onondaga, and Oswego County. According to the NYS Board of Elections February 20, 2026, enrollment reports it has 642,505 voters. Republicans own the plurality of it with 226,484 voters (35%). Democrats come in second with 197,361 voters (31%), and non-enrolled third with 176,456 voters (28%). Other (25,023 4%), Conservative (11,633 2%) and Working families (2,9721 <1%) round out the enrolled active voters. Onondaga County is the largest plurality of the district with 48% (3098,109) of the voters. Oneida is the second most populace county with 215 (136,887) of the voters. Oswego (75,179, 12%), Jefferson (62,247%), Herkimer (42,452 6%), and Lewis (17,631 3%) make up the rest of the district.

The 5^th Judicial district is behaving the way New York State has in terms of adding voters. Some growth started with the 2016 election and online voter registration with the DMV.  The largest growth of voters has happened since 2020 thanks to the reforms put in place by the Democratic controlled legislature to make it easier to register to vote and stay registered to vote in New York. Since 206 the 5^th Judicial district has added 45,506 voters which is a growth rate of 7.62%. This nearly mirrors the growth rate of Onondaga County which is the largest county and has an enormous impact on the district.

Here in this heat map of the 5^th Judicial district, we really see how this district becomes so balanced. Onondaga County acts like a blue anchor on the district in the moderate Democrat lean category of 10-14%. Oneida has a slight GOP lean of 5-9% Jefferson is a strong GOP lean in the 15-19% category. Herkimer, Lewis, and Oswego are in the Overwhelming GOP lean category of +20%.

In the county break down we truly see how Onondaga County balances the district and gives Democrats a fighting chance  All four of the small GOP counties we see the signs of GOP dominance with non-enrolled outnumbering the Democrats and overwhelming GOP enrollment advantage (Lewis +36.25% GOP, Herkimer +25.20$+% GOP, Oswego +24.38% GOP, Jefferson +19.62% GOP).  Oneida represents a more typical GOP county with a 9.10% GOP advantage and Democrats in second. Onondaga is a strong blue county with a +10.05% DEM advantage and non-enrolled outnumbering the GOP.

When we look at the partisan trends of the 5^th Judicial district we see a unique trend. Up until 2015 Democrats were closing the gap with the GOP, mostly through the GOP losing voters more than Democrats gaining. However, once Trump entered the political lexicon in 2016, we saw republicans, led by the 5 GOP counties, had a resurgence over the last ten years as Democrats have remained stagnate. Democrats have lost 670 voters over the last ten years as while the GOP has added 12,382 voters. However, the non-enrolled is still the highest grossing by far adding 39,942 voters. When looking at the effect of conservative and WFP voters we really see the closest this district came to ideological balance was 2015 when the right (republicans and Conservatives) had a just a +2.90% In fact 2025 was the highest ideological advantage for the right with +6.11% but it also corresponds to the largest defeat when Democrats won 3 of 4 Supreme Court seats.

We can ee that despite the ideological balance of the district shifting to the right, in federal years Democrats have performed well overcoming their disadvantage. In fact, they have one plurality in all four of our comparative races. In the 2024 Senate race the district performed the best for Democrats at +2.03% advantage. In the other three races they were much closer. The 2024 Presidential Race Democrats a +.62% advantage. The 2022 Senate Democrats had a +.29% advantage. The 2022 Governors’ race Democrats had +.61% advantage. This bodes well for Democrats going into 2026 which has a one Supreme Court seat on the ballot. Delegates will choose candidates during the August conventions.

That is, it is for this week’s edition of the #weeklywonk. Next week I dive into what has been the most popular race in federal elections, New York’s 22^nd congressional district. After multiple close elections, it flipped in 2024 for the first time since 2014. Will Democrats be able to repeat in this district for the first time since 1980? Tune in and find out. As always you can subscribe to dustinczarny.com for all content and election news updates.

Welcome back to the #wweeklywonk. This is my weekly column on dustinczarny.com on data relevant to Onondaga County and the State of New York, each week I dive into the electoral, registration, and performance data surrounding a political subdivision or election event relevant to our home here in Central New York. 2026 is a gubernatorial year and that means we have statewide elected offices running. Today I am looking at New York State as a whole. This is the first part of my 9-part series looking at New York State offices on the ballot this year in Onondaga County. So, join me as I look at the Empire State as we head into 2026 and how it relates to Onondaga County.

On February 20, 2026, the NYS Board of Elections pulled registration data from every County board of Elections. This gives us a good opportunity to look at how New York Stands currently with up-to-date data. As of February 20, 2026, New York has 12,547,142 active voters. Democrats are the dominant plurality of 6,002,006 voters (48%). Non-enrolled are second in New York with 3,187,610 voters (25%). Republicans have fallen to third in New York with just 2,835,976 (23%). Rounding out the population are the other category (301,469 2%), Conservative (160,464 1%), And Working Families (59,617 1%). This gives Democrats a +25.23% Democratic enrollment advantage statewide. One of the most controversial topics in New York is breaking it up into regions. To avoid this, I am using the regions as designated by the New York “Independent” redistricting commission. It is evident that New York City accounts for 40% of the state’s active voters, highlighting its dominant influence within New York. Long Island (17%) and the Mid-Hudson Valley (13%) follow this. The rest of the regions across upstate New York range from 2-7% each.

This chart shows the number of active registered voters in the State of New York in the millions. Currently New York has the second highest total of active registered voters going back to 2005. The season I cut this off in 2005 is the tracking of active and inactive voters started at that point so data before that date is not really comparing apples to apples. The changes in registration options clearly show the growth in registered voters in New York. Online voter registration began at the NYS DMV in 2016. After Democrats gained control of the NYS legislature in 2019, they passed measures like statewide transfers and a constitutional 10-day registration deadline, making it easier for voters to register and update their status. This year New York is finally launching Automatic Voter Registration with the DMV that will increase voter registration further. Since 2016 New York has added 1,070,708 voters which is a growth rate of 9.34%. Onondaga County trails the state average during that period with a growth rate of only +7.63% during this time.

In terms of partisan trends, we see a similar trend line that we saw in Onondaga County. Democrats since 2005 have grown and Republicans have remained stagnate. The big growth category though is the non-enrolled. In 2020 the non-enrolled overtook the republican category to become second place in New York. When we dial in on the last ten years since 2016, we see this trend hold. Democrats added approximately 370k voters. Republicans have added 170k voters reversing a trend of losing voters from 2005. However, the non-enrolled grew the most again, adding over 710k voters. When we factor in the Working Families and Conservative enrollment Democrats still have a 24.43% advantage over the GOP. We do see that Democratic advantage peaked in 2021 after the end of the first Trump administration at +47.24%. There had been a steady decline until 2024. We are now starting to see another levelling off and signs of increase in the second trump term.

People often fail to recognize the rich diversity found throughout New York State. Here is the heat map of New York counties in terms of partisan advantage. Obviously, we see a great deal of blue in NYC and the counties downstate. But even in the upstate regions we see a great deal of counties with large clue leanings, in counties hosting large upstate cities like Buffalo (Erie), Rochester (Monroe), Syracuse (Onondaga), & Albany (Albany). Schenectady, Rensselaer, and Columbia counties make up the capital region. Tompkins County is distinctive due to Ithaca’s influence on its development. No matter what region of New York we look at there is at least one county in the region that at least is borderline Democrat with the lone exception of the Mohawk Valley.

When people talk about New York State, they break it into three different macro regions: New York City, Downstate, and Upstate. For terms of this discussion, I will wade into the discussion of where upstate New York starts. Upstate New York starts Above the mid-Hudson line. I combined all regions north of mid-Hudson into the upstate region (Capital Region, Central New York, Finger Lakes, Mohawk Valley, North Country, & Western New York). Downstate are the regions directly bordering NYC (Mid-Hudson & Long Island). Democrats do well in downstate with a solid +10.29% advantage and non-enrolled are starting to overtake the GOP. Of course, in NYC the Democrats are dominant with a +54.69%. There are more Democrats alone in NYC as registered voters in the other two macro-regions individually.

When we investigate the two regions in the downstate macro-region (mid-Hudson and Long Island) we do see a definite diversity. Long Island, which consists of Nassau and Suffolk Counties, is just barely Democratic with a margin of +4.05%. This political leaning is evident in the composition of their county governments, as well as their congressional and state representatives. Counties in the Mid-Hudson Valley, located outside New York City, show strong backing for the Democratic Party. Westchester, Ulster, and Rockland counties contribute to a notable regional shift toward the Democratic Party, reflected in a strong advantage of +18.59%. In Mid-Hudson we see the telltale sign of non-enrolled significantly outnumbering the GOP.

Since I defined upstate into one macro-region I wanted to show the individual regional breakdown as well. There are seven regions inside upstate, three have Democratic leans, two have GOP leans, and one, our home of Central New York, is almost dead even. Western New York is the most Democratic upstate region with +9.53%. The Capital region is second at +8.25% but is the only region where non-enrolled outnumbers the GOP. The Finger Lakes has a borderline Democratic advantage of +2.57%. Central New York is smack in the middle with less than two hundred voters separating Democrats and Republicans only a +.04% for Democrats. The GOP in the southern tier only just leans GOP +5.44% thanks to the heavy Democrat lean of Tompkins County. The North Country region is a solid republican lean (+11.06% GOP). The Mohawk valley, the only region without a blue leaning county, Has the biggest GOP advantage of +14.37%.

Lastly, we will look at four of the statewide races over the last two federal cycles and how Onondaga County relates to New York State as whole. In 2024 New York voted for Kristen Gillibrand for Senate by +17.48% while Onondaga County voted just to the left at +20.54%. In 2024 New York voted for Kamala Harris for President by +12.41% while Onondaga County voted more to the left at +17.18%. In 2022 New York voted for Charles Schumer for President by +13.73% while Onondaga County voted solidly to the left at +17.60%. In 2024 New York voted for Kathy Hochul for Governor by +6.34% while Onondaga County voted just to the left at +7.75%. On average of these four races New York voted for the Democrat candidate +12.49% while Onondaga County was +15.77%. So, on average Onondaga County is remarkably similar to New York in these races with just 2-3 points to the left.

That is, it is for this week’s edition of the #weeklywonk. Next week I will look at the biggest political subdivision in New York, the Supreme Court district. Made up of six different counties, it is even larger than congressional district in terms of registered voters. This is part 2 of my 9-part series on New York races running in Onondaga County. As always you can subscribe to dustinczarny.com for all content and election news updates.

Welcome back to the #weeklywonk. This is my weekly data article that I host on dustinczarny.com. Each week I dive into the electoral and registration data that affect races in Onondaga County and New York State. I am at the end of my 6-part series looking at towns who nominate Democratic candidates by petitions that started last Tuesday. This week is part 6 of this series investigating the Town of Spafford. At first look it is a small rural town that should lean Republican. In practice it is one of Onondaga County’s most evenly contested towns.

The town of Spafford is one of the smaller towns in our county with just 1,346 voters. There are 370 Democrats with just 27%. The Republicans hold the plurality with 577 voters (43%). The non-enrolled in this town is in third place with just 325 voters (24%). The Other (49, 4%), Conservative (21, 2%), and Working Families (4. Zero percent) round out the population. Spafford is so small it only has two election districts in it. Election district one in the northwest portion of the town is the largest with 706 voters (52%). Election district two is in the southeastern portion of the town and has 640 voters (48%).

Not only is Spafford one of the smallest towns, but it is also growing at a rate slower than the rest of Onondaga County. Like most areas of Onondaga County and indeed New York state. The growth came about after 2019 with easier voter registration laws thanks to the Democratic takeover of New York State government. Looking back ten years, the Town of Spafford added sixty-seven voters, a growth of 5.24%. This is slightly bellowing the growth rate for Onondaga County as a whole (+7.63%) during the same period.

The Town of Spafford’s small stature makes it hard to delve deep into its different areas. However, even though there are only two election districts, we do see diversity. The. northern more populous election district is only a lean Republican district. The GOP has a +9.92% enrollment advantage here. The southern less populous district is one of the more GOP dominant eds in the county. The Republicans have a +21.41% enrollment advantage here. Despite the GOP dominance, in neither election district do the Democrats drop below second place. That is an important distinction in this rural town.

Spafford is a pretty static town. Despite this Democrats are making gains in this town. Since 2016 the Democrats have gained thirty-seven voters. The republicans have lost nine voters during that time. The non-enrolled have gained fifty-eight voters. In small towns the Conservative population can have a larger effect in tilting the town to the right. Even here Democrats and the left are making gains. In 2009 The combined GOP and Conservative dominance of Spafford gave a Democratic disadvantage of -23.79%. It has shrunk to -16.64% this year. Another sign that Spafford is not as republican as you might suspect.

Spafford has another distinction besides being the most competitive town. It is also the oldest. The average voter in Spafford is 54.93 years old. That is much older than the Onondaga County average of 50.87 years old. In fact, it is the oldest town in Onondaga county and as you might expect the 91+ age group is the largest. We do find diversity in the partisan makeup of the age groups. Like always the Democrats do better under fifty age groups and the GOP does better in the older groups. Still every group the GOP leads, even in the 18-30 group. And we do not see the dominance of the non-enrolled in the youngest groups like we have with other towns.

The most surprising facet of Spafford is its ability to elect Democrats despite the seeming registration dominance of the Republican party. In the past 15 years, the town of Spafford elected Democrats, sometimes gaining control of both the town board and Supervisor positions. In 2025 the pendulum again swung back to the Democrats winning the Supervisor race by 10.83% and gaining control of the board. When we look at the six comparative races, we see that Spafford lives up to the very epitome of a battleground town. Democrats won the 2024 Presidential and Congressional race as well as the 2022 congressional race. Republicans won the 22021 Supreme Court and 2023 County Clerk along 2022 Governor’s race. All were within five points except the 2023 County Clerk. The GOP averages a 3.37% margin of victory wh9ich is about a ten-point swing form the county average of Democrats +8.73%.

That is, it for this edition of the #weeklywonk. This ends my 6-part series on towns who petition for Democratic candidates in 2026. Next, I start another series, this time on the New York State races. This 9-part se. s will examine the New York, fifth judicial, Congressional, and six state legislature races in our county. Next week we begin our journey by looking at New York State as a whole. As always you can subscribe to dustinczarny.com for all content and election news updates.