Welcome back to the #WeeklyWonk, my weekly article on Dustinczarny.com exploring election statistics and data. Each week, I examine a political subdivision with a competitive election this fall and analyze its voter registration, election results, and other relevant data. The goal is to help readers better understand the stories behind election outcomes across our home county of Onondaga. This week, I continue my series examining the towns that nominate candidates through caucuses for the fall elections. This week I investigated the Town of Cicero, one of the few towns where GOP registration is growing.  However, there are recent signs that Democrats are faring better and even able to win this town.

As of July 4, 2026, the Town of Cicero has 22,836 active voters, making it one of the largest towns In Onondaga County with only Clay and Manlius having more voters. Republicans have a solid plurality with 7,745 (34%) of the voters.  Non-Enrolled come in second in this town with 6,978 (31%) of the voters.  Democrats come in third in this town with just 6,545 (29%) voters.  The remaining registration consists of voters in the “Other” category (953, 4%), the Conservative Party (520, 2%), and the Working Families Party (95, less than 1%). Republicans currently hold a 5.25% registration advantage, making Cicero the largest town with a GOP lean in Onondaga County. Cicero does not divide its town into wards to elect its town offices and has too many eds, so I have broken it down into four somewhat equal regions to examine: North (5,423 24%) Center (6,249 27%), Southwest (25%), & East (5,486 24%).

The town of Cicero is one of the fastest growing towns over the last ten years.  And this will only accelerate as Micron in neighboring Clay comes to fruition.  As of July 4, 2026, Cicero has grown at a rate of +12.13%.  This is almost twice as large as +6.17% that Onondaga County grew over that same period. (eagle eyed viewers may see that the Onondaga Rate has dropped a few points, that is because I am using current registration data as opposed to February 2026 that is before the mail check and NVRA that inactivated a great deal of voters in Onondaga County).  We can see the dramatic effect that the reforms put forward in 2019 had on voter registration as more voters are getting registered and staying registered.

The heat map of Cicero shows the wide, but shallow, dominance of the GOP.  The only Democratic leaning districts are in the southwest corner of the county in the half of the village of north Syracuse in the town and a couple of eds surrounding it.  Most of the voters lived in the dark purple eds that represent a border line Gop rating.  The pink eds represent a lean GOP rating.  The red eds have solid GOP rating.  There are no strong or overwhelming GOP eds so Democrats, and specially the non-enrolled, are growing in just about every area of the town.

When we look at the four regions of the town the wide and shallow GOP leaning holds up.  The best region for Democrats is the Southwest corner eds bordering the village of North Syracuse. The GOP only has a narrow +0.07% advantage, basically even.  The Center, most populous region, has a slightly better +3.44% lean for the GOP.  The Northern region near and around Brewerton is the best region for the GOP at +9.50% and the more rural Eastern region at +8.49%.  What is interesting is the non-enrolled outnumber the Democrats in all four regions and outnumber both major parties.

The theme of the non-enrolled being important in the Town of cicero continues when we look at the partisan trends of the Town.  While it is true that this is one of the only large towns where Republicans have made gains in recent years, those are dwarfed by the gains the non-enrolled.  Since 2016 republicans have gained 80 voters and Democrats have only gained 412.  However, the non-enrolled have outnumbered both their gains together by adding 1,528 voters.  The Disadvantage for Democrats though is highlighted even more sharply when you add Conservatives and Working Families into the mix.  We do see that the highwater mark for Democrats was 2019, but during the Biden Presidency and so far, until today they have lost ground now at a -7.12% which is the highest since 2009. 

Looking at the age of the town of Cicero there are some interesting pieces of data.  The under 30 portions of the town outnumbers the over 70 portions, meaning that the Town does have a chance to get younger.  In fact, the average voter age of 51.67 years is not that far off the Onondaga County average of 51.11 years. It is with the youngest age groups (under 50) where we see the influence of the non-enrolled voters at its peak.  In fact, the non-enrolled outnumber both the GOP and Democrat in all 3 categories under 50.  The core voting group, 51-70, are solidly GOP and where the town GOP has had their best performance in recent years.  The regions of the town show that the densely packed center is the youngest (50.51), while the North near Brewerton is the oldest (52.87).  Both the Southwest (51.73 and East (51.69) are similar in age.

Finally, when we look at the performance of this town we can see where Democrats have had some recent success.  While the comparative races are all in the GOP favor there is a sharp march towards competitiveness.  Despite all races previously being in double digits, Kamala Harris only lost this town by 5.87% and John Mannion only lost by 3.18% in 2024.  Further evidence of perhaps a swing among independent voters was the win of Rob Santucci for Cicero Town Supervisor by 0.68%.  Still all metrics point to this town voting about 20% to the right of the county on average, but if recent trends hold, Democrats may be able to continue chipping away and gain success.

That’s it for this week’s edition of the #WeeklyWonk. Next week, I will continue my tour of the caucus towns with the Town of Clay. The largest Town in Onondaga County may prove to be the most consequential this year with two whole county legislature seats and a third as well as a supervisor race and town Clerk.  With the addition of Micron in Clay this is one of the Towns to watch this election year. As always, subscribe to Dustinczarny.com for future editions, election analysis, and the latest election news from Onondaga County and beyond.