Welcome back to #WeeklyWonk. Each weekend I publish an article on a subject relating to elections in Onondaga County and New York State. Often these articles will have detailed stats to consume but sometimes they will be a recap of a prominent issue or on relevant election law. I am turning my eye to the 2023 elections. Today this series turns away from the towns of Onondaga County and to the Onondaga County Legislative districts that have competitive races.  This week I investigate Onondaga County Legislative district 6.

OCL 6 sits in the southwestern portion of our county.  Before redistricting it was one of the smallest in terms of population but the NYS redistricting guidelines for this round of redistricting forced more parity, in terms of population anyway.  The Onondaga GOP map drawers took out the Town of Otisco and added more of the Town of Camillus. This made defined the current makeup of OCL 6 with now consists of 22,490 active voters.  The partisan breakdown is 30% Democrat (6,744 Voters), 35% GOP (7,927 Voters), and 28% non-enrolled (6,242 voters). OCL 6 is made up of four different towns, part of the town of Camillus and all of Marcellus, Skaneateles, and Spafford.  The part of Camillus is now the largest portion of the district with 10,290 voters (46%), followed by Skaneateles with 6,024 voters (27%), Marcelles with 4838 voters (21%), and Spafford 1338 voters (6%).

In a new feature I am bringing to the #weeklywonk this year I am doing a heat map for each political subdivision.  I will be looking at the current partisan makeup of each individual ED and heat mapping its partisan lean based on the advantage for the Democrats and GOP.  Looking at the heat map we really see that the OCL 6 has a diverse collection of election districts in it.  2 Election Districts Skaneateles 05 & Marcellus 05 have overwhelming GOP Lean (> -20%).  1 ED, Spafford 02, has strong GOP lean (-15-19%). 8 eds, Camillus 1 & 7, Marcellus 1 & 5, Skaneateles 1,3, & 6, Spafford 1 have a moderate GOP lean (-10-14%).  2 eds, Skaneateles 7 & 8, have a slight GOP lean (-5-9%).  4 eds, Camillus 8 & 19, Marcellus 6, Skaneateles 4, have a borderline GOP lean (0-4%).  9 eds, Camillus 3, 6, 10, 15, 18, 23, Marcellus 4, Skaneateles 2 have a borderline Democrat lean (0-4%).  Finally, 4 eds Camillus 9, 13, 22, & 24 have slight Democrat lean (5-9%).   The villages and suburban parts of Camillus are borderline or slight democratic leans while the rural parts of the district have strong GOP leanings.

Since the 2011 redistricting the old OCL 6 was seeing the same pattern Onondaga County as a whole saw, a declining GOP population with a Democratic population that saw tremendous gains in the Trump year (2017-2020) but stagnation since, and a steady growing N/E population.  Republicans lost 569 voters, Democrats gained 1,053 voters, and the non-enrolled gained 907 voters from 2011-2022.  Though the redistricting plan was passed by the legislature and county executive in 2021, the lines did not go into effect until the 2023 elections.  With the new lines in place, we can see all three factions gained voters when compared to last year.  The GOP gained 334 voters, the Democrats gained 4-2 voters, and the n/e gained 577 voters in the redistricting process.  This means the district continued its trend toward the Democrats but still solidly GOP.

All four town portions of OCL 6 have a GOP lean, though some are greater than others.  The town of Camillus portion is as close to even as you can get with a GOP lean of -.90%.  The Town of Skaneateles has a typical GOP lean of -8.03%.  In Marcellus we see the n/e outnumber the Democrat and there is a -8.54%.  Spafford has the highest GOP lean of -14.42% however the Democrats are not outnumbered by the GOP there.  The southern towns outnumber the Camillus portion giving the district its GOP lean.

Looking at the growth of voters since the last redistricting cycle we compare it with date from right before redistricting of 2011.  The area of the new OCL (post 2022) itself grew by 3,076 active voters and the OCL 6 gained 1348 voters during the redistricting process.  The Town of Camillus portion of the district grew by 1.070 voters.  Surprisingly Marcellus has seen the biggest growth gaining 1.263 voters in that period. The town of Skaneateles grew by 626 voters.  Finally, Spafford, the smallest town, saw the smallest growth with just 117 more voters than 2011.

The area in the new OCL 6 has grown 8.15% more Democratic since 2011. The district itself grew 0.66% more Democratic during the redistricting process, the only incumbent GOP district to do so.  The Town of Camillus portion that is in the district grew more Democratic by 8.85%.  The Town of Marcellus saw the biggest growth but the least Democratic growth as Democrats only gained 1.95%.   The town of Skaneateles has seen the biggest change, becoming 11.55% more Democratic.  Even the town of Spafford had a significant 7.85% gain for Democrats.

Unfortunately, when we look at the comparative races, we can only run numbers at the OCBOE for the old district when the races all happened.  With the Democrats gaining .66% in redistricting, we could see a tightening of some of these races. In even years this district performs relatively well.  President Biden won this district by 9.1%, gaining 53.45% of the voter in 2020, 5.43% points behind his Onondaga County totals.  Governor Hochul was also well received here, losing this district by just .71%, gaining 49.56% of the vote, just 4.22% behind her Onondaga rate totals.  However, in odd years Democrats fare less well.  In 2021 Brindisi only garnered 46.63% in his Supreme Court race, 5.87% behind his Onondaga totals.  In 2019 Mark Kolinski faired the worse, with just 40.92%, 6.81% behind his Onondaga County rate.  Finally, Julie Abbott Keenan, the incumbent, won her two re-elections in 2021 and 2019 by quite a large margin.  In 2021 she performed better that other republican in the district winning 57.82% of the vote.  The good news for Democrats here is the district already showed signs of tightening as the years go on and gained more Democratic friendly district in redistricting.

Blake Carter is the Democratic candidate to try and flip this district.  He will need to capitalize on the newer parts of the district that is not as well known to the incumbent and more democratic family as well as increasing turnout.  You can learn more about his campaign here:  https://www.voteforblakecarter.com/.

That is, it for this week’s edition of the #WeeklyWonk. I have finished my investigations into the Towns of Onondaga County.  I have now turned my attention to the competitive seats for the Onondaga County legislature.  With only 5 seats in contention this will take me to close to Election Day when I will take another look at Onondaga County and the City of Syracuse.  Next week I will investigate Onondaga County Legislative District 7 spanning Dewitt & Syracuse, a district that will have new representation next year. As always go to dustinczarny.com and subscribe to get all your content and election news updates.  I run that website, along with these series of articles, as part of my voter education.  I never take ad money or charge subscriptions paying for the site with my own personal funds.  Subscribe here.

Welcome back to #WeeklyWonk. Each weekend I publish an article on a subject relating to elections in Onondaga County and New York State. Often these articles will have detailed stats to consume but sometimes they will be a recap of a prominent issue or on relevant election law. I am turning my eye to the 2023 elections. Today I look at the Town of Tully, a seemingly rural red town with surprising voting history.

The Town of Tully sits in the most direct south portion of our county.  It is surrounded by Spafford to the west, Otisco and Lafayette to the north, and Fabius to the east.  It is a smaller rural town with 2,075 voters, ranking 15^th out of 19 towns at the upper end of the rural towns. The makeup of Tully is 28% Democrat (582 Voters), 37% GOP (771 Voters), and 28% non-enrolled (575 voters).  The Town of Tully is broken up into 3 different election districts.  Election District 1 comprises of the village of Tully and has 602 voters (29%).  Election District 2 comprises of the Eastern half of the Town of Tully and has 787 voters (38%).  Election District 3 is the western portion of the Town of Tully and has 686 voters (33%).

In a new feature I am bringing to the #weeklywonk this year I am doing a heat map for each political subdivision.  I will be looking at the current partisan makeup of each individual ED and heat mapping its partisan lean based on the advantage for the Democrats and GOP.  Looking at the heat map we really see that the Town of Tully is a solidly GOP town.    ED 3 has a moderate GOP lean (-10-14%). ED 1 & 2 have slight GOP lean (-5-9%).

Since 2009 The Town of Tully has seen unusual changes for a rural town.  The GOP has held steady only losing 18 voters since 2009.  The Democrats gained 92 voters since 2009.  The Non-Enrolled however has held steady gaining only 18 voters since 2009.  Democrats have gained the most since 2009 but those gains are with in the 5-year Trump period (2016-2020).  The pattern in Tully is unusual as unlike other areas the GOP and N/E have held basically steady.  The Democrats before Trump were losing ground, gained dramatically in the Trump years, and have held steady since. It is a unique pattern unlike any of the other towns I have investigated.

All three election districts have a GOP lean.  The village of Tully in ED 1 is the most favorable to Democrats with only a 5.98% lean to the GOP, however the Democrats outnumber the non-enrolled here.  It is also worthy of note the last two mayors of Tully have been registered Democrats, though they run on non-partisan lines.  Election District 3 is the second most favorable to Democrats.   Here the partisan difference is less of just a 5.69% GOP lean, but the non-enrolled slightly outnumber the Democrats which is usually a sign of weakness for a major party.  Election District 2 is the most GOP of all the election districts with a 14.49% GOP lean and the non-enrolled significantly outnumbering the Democrats.

Looking at the growth of voters since the last redistricting cycle we compare it with date from right before redistricting of 2012, the Town of Tully grew by 207 active voters since 2012.  The largest growth, by far is in Election District 2 gaining 110 voters.  The village of Tully in election district 1 gained 57 voters.  Election district 3 gained the least with just 40 voters.

Every election district in the Town of Tully has trended towards the Democrats since the last redistricting and the town itself grew more Democratic by 6.26%.  The village of Tully, like most villages and urban centers, gained the most becoming 8.70% more Democratic since 2009.  The rest of Tully grew at similar rates.  Election District 2 grew more Democratic by 5.60%. Election district 3 grew more Democratic by 5.31%. 

When we look at the comparative races, the Town of Tully, while voting almost solidly GOP, has some surprises. Tully registration is significantly more GOP than Onondaga County, but President Biden won the Town in 2020 by 1.54, though that was 9.21% worse than his county win total. The other comparative races, though won by the GOP, were favorable results when compared to other towns with similar GOP registration advantage.  Governor Hochul only garnered 44.92% in Tully, 886% less than her county win total.  In his supreme court race in 2021 Anthony Brindisi won 40.83%, 11.67% worse than his Onondaga County totals.  In 2019 democrat Mark Kolinski running for Town Clerk faired the worst with just 39.69% of the voter, 10.03% off his Onondaga County total. In 2019 then mayor of Tully Melissa Flint-Morgan challenged Town Supervisor John Masters.  Though she did not win, garnering only 4248% of the vote, she did better than the other comparative races in odd number years.

In 2023 the Town of Tully Democrats have already caucused.  They only have one candidate running for town council, Carrie Edinger.  If you are interested in helping these candidates or joining the Tully Democratic committee, contact their chairperson Elizabeth Weinstein at elizabethsweinstein@gmail.com.

That is, it for this week’s edition of the #WeeklyWonk. I have finished my investigations into the Towns of Onondaga County.  The towns of Elbridge, Fabius, Lafayette, and Otisco have no Democratic candidates this year so I will save their investigations for future years.  Next week I will dive County Legislative seats in competition this year starting with OCL 6. As always go to dustinczarny.com and subscribe to get all your content and election news updates.  I run that website, along with these series of articles, as part of my voter education.  I never take ad money or charge subscriptions paying for the site with my own personal funds.  Subscribe here.