Welcome back to #WeeklyWonk. Each weekend I publish an article on a subject relating to elections in Onondaga County and New York State. Often these articles will have detailed stats to consume but sometimes they will be a recap of a prominent issue or on relevant election law. I am turning my eye to the 2023 elections. Today I look at the Town of Skaneateles, another seemingly red town with some surprising voting habits.

The Town of Skaneateles sits in the southwestern corner of our county.  It sits south of Elbridge and Manlius, east of Lafayette, and north of Fabius.  It is a smaller rural town with 5,979 voters, ranking 10^th out of 19 towns at the upper end of the rural towns. The makeup of Pompey is 30% Democrat (1,801 Voters), 38% GOP (2,295 Voters), and 25% non-Enrolled (1,510 voters).  The Town of Skaneateles has two distinct features that define the town, the village of Skaneateles and Skaneateles Lake that divides southern part of the town in two.  This allows me to break up Skaneateles into 4 distinct regions Nort, East, West & Village. The North of Skaneateles that borders Elbridge with 1,364 voters (23%).  The East region of Skaneateles sits east of the lake in the southern part of the town bordering Marcellus & Spafford and has 1,251 voters (21%).  The Western region is on the other side of the lake in the southern part of the town and orders Cayuga County with 1,241 voters (21%).  The Village of Skaneateles is the smallest region it most densely populated and the larges region in terms of voters with 2,213 (35%).

In a new feature I am bringing to the #weeklywonk this year I am doing a heat map for each political subdivision.  I will be looking at the current partisan makeup of each individual ED and heat mapping its partisan lean based on the advantage for the Democrats and GOP.  Looking at the heat map we really see that the Town of Skaneateles is mostly uniform surrounding the village, while the village itself is a true borderline.    ED 5 has an overwhelming GOP lean (-20% and above). ED 1, 3, 6, & 8 have a moderate GOP lean (-10-15%). ED 7 has a slight GOP lean (-5-10%).  The Village Eds 2 & 4 are nearly even.  EDs 4 has a borderline GOP lean (-0-5%).  ED 2 is the only democratic ed with a borderline Democratic lean (0-5%). 

Since 2009 The Town of Skaneateles has seen the typical changes that suburban towns have experienced despite being a more rural town.  The GOP has seen a steady decline losing 301 voters since 2009.  The Democrats gained 379 voters since 2009.  Meanwhile the Non-Enrolled continues steady year over year gains with 289 more voters since 2009.  Democrats have gained the most since 2009 but those gains are with in the 5-year Trump period (2016-2020).  Overall Skaneateles seems to be more partisan than other towns with the growing non-enrolled voter segment not growing as fast here.  The Town could be the canary in the coalmine if long term Democratic gains continue after the 2024 election in Onondaga County.

Only one of the three regions in Skaneateles shows a Democratic lean, and just barely at that.  Most have significant GOP leans.  The North of Skaneateles has a superior GOP lean with 16.50% and non-enrolled outnumbers the Democrats.  Western Skaneateles has a moderate GOP lean with 12.97%.  ED 6 is similar with a GOP lean of -2.20%.  Eastern Skaneateles has a moderate GOP lean with -8.79%.  Eastern and Western Skaneateles are more normal rural areas where Democrats are back in second place.  The Village of Skaneateles is a purple island in this sea of red.  It is nearly even with Democrats having just 2 more voters than the GOP for a .09% difference.

Looking at the growth of voters since the last redistricting cycle we compare it with date from right before redistricting of 2012.   The Town of Skaneateles grew by 581 active voters since 2012.  A significant portion of that growth occurred in the Village of Skaneateles which gained 197 voters.  However, the other regions grew at a decent rate as well.  Ed 3 gained 204 voters and ED 4 gained 150 voters.  The other 4 eds had similar small growth.  The North gained 136 voters.  The East gained 125 voters. The west gained 123 voters.  The equal gain indicates a possibility for even more growth in those areas.   

Every Region in the Town of Skaneateles has trended towards the Democrats since the last redistricting, except for Northern Skaneateles.  Democratic registration share only gained by 1.18% in the North.  The Village grew the most in voters and in Democratic registration share with +15.31%.  The East and the West were right behind though.  The Democratic vote share in the West grew by 13.86% and the East by 13.14%.  Though those areas stay significantly red the trend of growth in the East and West seems to be Democratic, whereas the North growth seems to be more GOP friendly. 

When we look at the comparative races, the Town of Skaneateles we see a surprising result, specially among female candidates.  Skaneateles Registration is significantly more GOP than Onondaga County   but in 2022 it voted for Governor Hochul’s by 52.06%, only 1.78% worse than her win in Onondaga County rate of 53.78%. That surprisingly good Democratic result didn’t seem to be reflected in other races.  In 2021 the Town of Skaneateles only voted for Anthony Brindisis for Supreme Court by 45.31%, 7.19% worse than the county result rate of 52.50%.  In 2020 Skaneateles voted for President Biden by 55.43%, only losing 3.45% points behind his Onondaga County win of 58.88%.  In 2019 Pompey only voted for Democrat Mark Kolinski for County clerk by 37.70% losing 10.03% of his Onondaga County rate of 47.73%.  The last head-to-head town offices where Democrats contested was for Town Supervisor in 2015.  Democrat Mary Sennet was defending her Town Supervisor seat and only lost by 1.69% when Skaneateles was much more GOP than it is now.  Democrat Chris Legg did win a Town Board seat in 2019, however Skaneateles Democrats did not field any candidates in other years.  The Comparative races do show an interesting anecdotal pattern of favoring women candidates, regardless of Party.  In each race a woman fared better than expected against the male candidate and in 2020 Biden’s candidacy saw national support trends from women voters.  It is also voting Democrat more significantly in even years where National and state races dominate the ballot.

In 2023 the Town of Skaneateles Democrats have already caucused.  Town Councilor Chris Legg is running for Town Supervisor and Ralph G. Demassi is running for one of the Town Justice seats. While it is not a full slate of candidate recent trends indicate they may be able to do better than expected.  If you are interested in helping these candidates or joining the Skaneateles Democratic committee, contact their chairperson Dee VOUNAS at deevounas@yahoo.com.

That is, it for this week’s edition of the #WeeklyWonk.  Next week I will dive into the Town of Tully, my last Town I will be looking at in 2023. As always go to dustinczarny.com and subscribe to get all your content and election news updates.  I run that website, along with these series of articles, as part of my voter education.  I never take ad money or charge subscriptions paying for the site with my own personal funds.  Subscribe here.

Welcome back to #WeeklyWonk. Each weekend I publish an article on a subject relating to elections in Onondaga County and New York State. Often these articles will have detailed stats to consume but sometimes they will be a recap of a prominent issue or on relevant election law. I am turning my eye to the 2023 elections. Today I look at the Town of Pompey, a seemingly red town that occasionally votes blue.

The Town of Pompey sits in the southeastern corner of our county.  It sits south of Dewitt and Manlius, east of Lafayette, and north of Fabius.  It is a smaller rural town with 5,418 voters, ranking 11^h out of 19 towns at the upper end of the rural towns. The Town of Pompey is a solidly red town that votes differently than its registration at times with definite trends towards Democrats.  The makeup of Pompey is 28% Democrat (1,542 Voters), 38% GOP (2,049 Voters), and 28% non-Enrolled (1,508 voters).  With only 6 Election Districts there is no need to break down this town into regions.  We can examine each Election District.  Election District 1 sits in the center north of Pompey with 889 voters (17%).  ED 2 sits in the northeastern corner of the town and has 768 voters (14%).  ED 3 sits in the southeastern corner of the town with 1,028 voters (19%).  ED 4 sits in the southwestern portion of town and has 1,034 voters.  Ed 5 sits in the northwestern portion of town and has 925 voters (17%). Ed 6 sits in the north center portion of town and has 774 voters (14%).

In a new feature I am bringing to the #weeklywonk this year I am doing a heat map for each political subdivision.  I will be looking at the current partisan makeup of each individual ED and heat mapping its partisan lean based on the advantage for the Democrats and GOP.  Looking at the heat map we really see that the Town of Onondaga has some of the most diverse partisanship of any Town in the County.    ED 5 has an overwhelming GOP lean (-20% and above). ED 3 has a strong GOP lean (-15-20%). ED 2 has a moderate GOP lean (-5-10%).  EDs 4 & 6 have a borderline GOP lean (-0-5%).  ED 3 is the only democratic ed with a borderline Democratic lean (0-5%).  The Eds closer to the order of Manlius and Dewitt are more Democratic than the Eds to the South ordering Fabius and Lafayette.

Since 2009 The Town of Pompey registration has had a slow & steady trend towards the Democrats though it remains a solidly red town.  The Democrats have gained 304 voters since 2009. The GOP has lost only 28 voters during that time staying basically the same.  The Non-enrolled has gained the most with 326 more voters.   Like many other communities though, the Democratic gains seemed to have plateaued since 2020.  The non-enrolled though have made steady gains since 2016.  The N/E may even overtake the Democrats next year. 

Only one of the six eds in Pompey shows a Democratic lean with all 5 others showing GOP leans. ED 3 is the Democratic Election District, but only by a hair with .49% difference.  ED 4 has a borderline GOP lead with -1.74%.  ED 6 is similar with a GOP lean of -2.20%.  ED 2 has a moderate GOP lean with -8.84% however and Democrats and Non-enrolled are basically even there.  ED 1 has a strong GOP lean with -15.86%.  ED 5 has an overwhelming GOP lean with -26.81%. The non-enrolled in these two regions outnumber the Democrats. 

Looking at the growth of voters since the last redistricting cycle we compare it with date from right before redistricting of 2012.   The Town of Pompey grew by 630 active voters since 2012.  The overwhelming amount of growth occurred in the Northeastern corner of the town.  Ed 3 gained 204 voters and ED 4 gained 150 voters.  The other 4 eds had similar small growth.  ED 6 gained 76 voters, ED 5 gained 75 voters, ED 2 gained 64 voters, and ED 1 gained 59 voters. 

Every ED in the Town of Pompey has trended towards the Democrats since the last redistricting, however some have grown dramatically different than others.  Eds 3 & 4 did not just grow in voters the most, they had the most Democratic growth at 12.50% and 11.72% respectively. Following them we saw similar Democratic growth in ED 6 (11.17%) and ED 2 (9.04%).  The GOP EDS 1 & 5 has seen the least Democratic growth of 2.69% & 0.25% respectively. 

When we look at the comparative races, the Town of Pompey votes significantly behind Onondaga County as a whole. In 2022 the Town of Pompey only voted for Governor Hochul’s by 44.92%, 8.86% worse than her win in Onondaga County rate of 53.78%. In 2021 the Town of Pompey only voted for Anthony Brindisis for Supreme Court by 45.33%, 7.17% worse than the county result rate of 52.50%.  In 2020 Pompey voted for President Biden, the only race that got a majority Democratic vote, by 50.48%, but also lost 8.40% points behind his Onondaga County win of 58.88%.  In 2019 Pompey only voted for Democrat Mark Kolinski for County clerk by 43.02% losing 4.71% of his Onondaga County rate of 47.73%.  The last head-to-head town offices where Democrats contested was for Town Council to fill Vacancy and Town Justice.  Democrats won the Town Council TFV 23.56% and lost the Town Justice race by just 2.16%. The Town of Pompey, while voting behind Onondaga County as a whole, does vote more Democratic than their registration would suggest.  This indicates that the large and growing non-Enrolled registration is leaning Democratic, specially in races that have more extreme GOP opponents.

In 2023 the Town of Pompey Democrats have already caucused.  They are contesting the Two Town Board seats.  Diane Carpenter who was elected in the TFV race last year is running are running for her Town seat on a plank of continuing the bi-partisan ruling coalition that Pompey has seen over the last few years.  If you are interested in helping these candidates or joining the Pompey Democratic committee, contact their chairperson Victoria Lightcap at victorialightcap@gmail.com

That is, it for this week’s edition of the #WeeklyWonk.  Next week I will dive into the Town of Skaneateles, home of my Alma Matter and some Democratic success in recent years. As always go to dustinczarny.com and subscribe to get all your content and election news updates.  I run that website, along with these series of articles, as part of my voter education.  I never take ad money or charge subscriptions paying for the site with my own personal funds.  Subscribe here.