The Weekly Wonk: Early Voting in the August 2022 Primary

Welcome to the #weeklywonk. This is my weekly blog about statistics, registration data, and election law on my website, dustinczarny.com. This is a rebrand of my #wonkywednesday and #sundaythoughts columns I have been writing since 2020. In merging these two side projects together I am hoping to be a little more regular in my production. I have also not tied myself to a particular day to release these columns, hoping to release them weekly on the weekend. This way I can have more time to gather the statistics and resources that I want to devote to these articles. This week I start my look back at the August 23rd Congressional and State Senate Primary with a breakdown of #EarlyVoting.

#EarlyVoting is the newest form of voting in New York State having been adopted in 2019. However, this is only the fourth primary election with #EarlyVoting as it went into effect with the general election in November 2019. Though we had four primary elections in Onondaga County with #EarlyVoting, this year’s back-to-back June & August primaries are the only ones with county wide primaries for both GOP and Democratic candidates. The 2020 combined Presidential and local primaries in Onondaga County were only for Democratic candidate’s county wide with the GOP only having a small Assembly primary. The 2021 Primary had both Democratic and GOP candidates, but it was only the City of Syracuse. However, we now have four elections to see the trend for #earlyVoting and how primary voters react to this reform.

For the August 2023 Primary we had 4154 #EarlyVoters. Of the overall #EarlyVoting pool we see that 75% of those who participated were Democratic (3115), 24% were GOP (1008), and the Conservatives had 1% of the electorate (31). Onondaga County deployed eight #EarlyVoting locations for the August primary, the same as the June one. Once again Dewitt Town Hall (1275) was the largest #EarlyVoting location followed by Clay Town Hall (862. This order has been the same for seven of the eight elections, both primary and general elections since the start of Early Voting. OCC Mulroy Hall (579) continued its third-place ranking and the best “new “#early Voting spot. Armond Magnarelli (4040) and Lysander Town Hall (340) rounds out the midsize EV spots. The bottom three remain Lafayette Fire Station (254), Syracuse Community Connections (244) And Beauchamp Library (198).

This is the fourth primary with #earlyVoting as an option and we are seeing a definitive growth in use. The August 23rd Primary was the best performance for #EarlyVoting in a primary yet. With 4154 total voters it was a over a 50% increase from June 2022 primary (2761). It is not just about raw votes either. The August Primary #EarlyVote was 12.3% of the voter turnout. This was nearly a 15% increase from June 2022 Primary (10.71%). This makes the August 23rd Primary the best performance for #earlyVoting in a primary in Onondaga County.

If we look at Early Voting by site, we see that Dewitt and Clay continued their traditional top performance in the August 2022 primary. Though I have included the 2020 and 2021 data here, I find it more enlightening to see where there may be growths between June and August. These two primaries provide the best comparison since the same electorate. When looking at the percentage of the electorate Dewitt Town Hall made the most gain in Early voting increasing its share of the electorate by 1.92%. However, Beauchamp Library, though the least in raw votes in both elections, showed a significant growth in the electorate at +.97%. OCC Mulroy Hall also increased its vote share at .79%. The biggest loser in vote share was Clay Town Hall at -1.43%, Armond Magnarelli at -.91% and Lafayette Fire Station -.81%. Since the substantial changes don’t seem to be close to each other geographically the changes are more likely a result in the slight increase in turnout in the August primary coming from different areas of the county than in June.

The August Primary once again continues the pattern that the City of Syracuse and towns that host #EarlyVoting centers show a higher percentage of use of these facilities. Raw Vote totals still tend to follow overall population with notable exceptions. Syracuse, Clay, and Manlius are the top performers but Dewitt well overperforms higher population towns like Salina, Cicero, & Lysander. The percentage of Turnout really brings this to light as Dewitt has the highest percentage of #EarlyVotes of their eligible population. Lafayette though is second as the Town of Lafayette voters used their EV center at the second highest rate. Other towns with EV sites like Clay, Lysander, Onondaga, and the City of Syracuse outperformed towns that do not have EV sites. The exception of this rule continues to be the Town of Manlius, however the location of Dewitt Town Hall on the border of Manlius and Dewitt gives those citizens a remarkably close EV option they are definitely taking advantage of.

I am introducing a new way of tracking #EarlyVoting with this #WeeklyWonk. With four primaries under our belt, we can now track EV performance by individual parties as well. Critics of #EarlyVoting point to it servicing a small percentage of voters. They are not wrong, especially with primaries. However, they are not right either. They leave out that primaries themselves only service 10-15% of all voters and that #EarlyVoting outnumbers absentee voting as a voter option. They also conveniently forget to point out that by a metric, #earlyvotingisgrowing. 2.69% of registered Democrats used #EarlyVotingbut it was 15.26% of the overall voter turnout. This is up from June (1.77/12.22) and the highest rate yet. The same is true of #EarlyVoting among GOP though it is less in numbers and percentage than Democrats. The August Primary showed 1.23% of enrolled GOP voters and 7.7% of the overall turnout up from June (.89%/5.97%) and another record. We see increased GOP voters are splitting with their party rhetoric and choosing #EarlyVoting as well.

That does it for this edition of the #weeklyWonk. Next week I will continue my look at the August 23rd Primary by diving into the Absentee Voting performance. We will continue looking back at the extra primary the rest of September before we resume the look at voter registrations for the General Election Senate Seats #50 & #48 as well as the towns of Manlius, Onondaga, and Pompey. Check back each week.

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Syracuse can lead the nation by ratifying citizen-led redistricting (Editorial Board Opinion)

“Syracuse has a chance to make history Monday. The Syracuse Common Council is scheduled to vote on new council districts drawn by a citizen-led, independent commission. Communities around the country are watching this experiment in democracy.”

https://www.syracuse.com/opinion/2022/09/syracuse-can-lead-the-nation-by-ratifying-citizen-led-redistricting-editorial-board-opinion.html

This redistricting process in Syracuse is a model for how redistricting should be done. I am posting this because I believe my subscribers should know about this historic process happening in our backyard.

Central Current Radio Episode 6

In this episode of Central Current Radio, Host Rick Wright and Editor-in-Chief Julie McMahon talk local politics and the upcoming midterm elections with longtime Onondaga County Democratic Elections Commissioner Dustin Czarny. For the latest coverage from the Central Current team go to centralcurrent.org/.

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Zoom with Czarny: GSLC President Mark Spadafore

This week I sit down with Mark Spadafore, President of the Greater Syracuse Labor Council and Upstate Political Director for 1199 SEIU. We talk about the state of CNY and American labor. We also touch on the renaissance of the labor movement. Finally we talk politics about this fall’s elections. Enjoy.

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On Changing Traditions or How I Learned to Relax and Become a Buffalo Bills Fan.

In the fifth grade I had been diagnosed with a bone infection. It came on suddenly and within days I was unable to walk. I spent 6 weeks in the hospital and another 6 weeks at home as I recovered from this near-death infection. My hospital stay started in December of 1983. As I entered the hospital in constant pain and fighting for my life my mother was by my side. She was though a single parent with another child at home. Once I was out of danger and recovering, she had to go back to work and take care of my brother. For a young man spending this much time alone in a hospital I looked for something, anything to latch onto. And I found the Washington Redskins.

I was just starting to get into football as a sport but had not yet picked a team. My father was not a New York Native, so I had not been indoctrinated into a local team. One Sunday the Washington Redskins were playing the Detroit Lions in a playoff game. I tuned in thinking maybe I would root for Detroit as my father was from Michigan. During the absolute shellacking, the Lions were taking I decided that I would root for Washington the rest of the playoffs. It did not hurt that there was a prominent player on the team named Dave Butz and my 11-year-old self-found that funny as hell.

As I continued to get healthy, Washington continued to win. They went on to win the Superbowl that year and I was a fan for life after that. Or so I thought.

For the next almost 40 years I stuck with Washington through thick and thin. And yes, there was a good deal of thin. I organized my life around games. When I moved back to Syracuse in 1995, I started watching games at Tully’s on Erie Blvd every week. I met a group of friends there, also Washington fans, and looked forward to each Sunday. I met other friends online at various forums throughout the web. I even for two years wrote a weekly blog about my beloved football team.

My wife arranged for me to go to my first live game, ironically, in Buffalo before we were married and suffered through a game on our honeymoon in 2004. Almost every year we made a pilgrimage down to Fed Ex stadium. My one and only trip to the Football Hall of Fame was when Art Monk was finally inducted. I cheered when Joe Gibbs came back as Head Coach and had my heart break when he could not regain his former glory. I looked on in despair as my favorite college player Donovan McNabb could not achieve greatness in the Burgundy and Gold. I instructed my children to learn the fight song proudly and would make them sing it after touchdowns. I loved being a fan of this team for an exceptionally long time.

In 2018 tings really started to change for me. The weight of the Snyder era had fallen heavy on my heart. It was not just about the lack of football success or coaching carousel, though that was a part of it. It was about the way a once proud franchise turned from a fan driven entity to a profit at all costs machines. Then the cheerleader scandal was brought to light where young women were taken advantage of and abused under the direction of this corrupt ownership. Sexual harassment allegations against Snyder have still not been settled and he is still allowed to be an owner in this league. The name change, something I came to accept as an inevitably, was managed almost as a cover up for other scandals instead of the serious decision it should have been. I no longer enjoyed watching this team and was ashamed to wear their merchandise. Even through all of that I tried to hang on as a fan and hope for better days.

Like most things though, Donald Trump and the election of 2016 factored in. The fan group that I had been a part of for nearly 20 years started to splinter and fight. Before this we had survived every major election even though our ideologies were as diverse as America. Late in 2017 we stopped getting together to watch games. There was never any big argument, we just…stopped. We could not separate politics and football and it was easier to go our separate ways. I was not really interested in watching the team anymore and in 2019 I stopped reserving time in my schedule to watch the games. When they announced the bland new name of the Commandeers, I felt nothing but shame for a once proud franchise.

Finally, this summer came the final straw. The team allowing their defensive coordinator to make light of the insurrection, which took place in their supposed home of DC, was a bridge too far for me. The response, as often was the case with the Dan Snyder scandals, came too late and it was too light for me to pretend any longer. I was no longer a fan of the Washington football team and could no longer hope that I could be. They had taken the joy out of a sport I loved from the time I was 11 years old in a hospital bed fighting for my life. So, I renounced my fandom.

I was not sure whether or not I would try to even be a football fan anymore. Over the last few years another longtime fandom took prevalence in my little idle time, the Boston Celtics and NBA basketball (that is a story for another day). I did not want to just jump to a new team right away and to be honest the sport of football and the injuries it caused weighed on parts of my conscious, and still do.

But today I have decided. I want football to be back in my life. I want to try and enjoy this game again. For me that means rooting on a team, one team, and being part of the community. So, as I thought about which team I wanted to root for, I decided I should root for a local team for once. A New York team that I could go to games again if the opportunity arose. I wanted a team that I could perhaps find community of sport in again with local fans that I could cheer with and commiserate with. I know no team and no ownership will be perfect. But I needed a fresh start if I were to love this game again. And for a fresh start, I needed a new team.

I decided that I could only support the Buffalo Bills. They are the only team that actually plays in New York. It is the closest team to my current location. I also figured that as a New York Taxpayer I am funding their stadium so that makes me a part owner. I might as well get dividends out of it. I know that some will believe that I am only joining them on their upswing, but I hope my history of sticking through the difficulties of the Washington football team will show I am not a fair-weather fan. I will be with you Bills Mafia through thick and thin.

Here is to a new beginning and loving football again. Go Bills.

Justin Coretti wins Conservative Party primary for NY Senate after recount – Syracuse.com

“The final vote was 279 votes for Coretti and 265 votes for Abbott, according to Onondaga County Election Commissioner Dustin Czarny.”

https://www.syracuse.com/politics/2022/09/justin-coretti-wins-conservative-party-primary-for-ny-senate-after-recount.html

Commissioner in a Car: The August Primary is certified, now onto the General Election

Results of the hand count for #SD48 are in and Justin Corretti maintained his 14 vote lead and will create a 3-way race for #sd48 this fall. Also our eyes turn to the General Election as we await New York State Board of Elections certification next week. Go to onvote.net to get election information.

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The Weekly Wonk: New York’s 22nd Congressional District

Welcome to the #weeklywonk. This is my weekly blog about statistics, registration data, and election law on my website, dustinczarny.com. This is a rebrand of my #wonkywednesday and #sundaythoughts columns I have been writing since 2020. In merging these two side projects together I am hoping to be a little more regular in my production. I have also not tied myself to a particular day to release these columns, hoping to release them weekly on the weekend. This way I can have more time to gather the statistics and resources that I want to devote to these articles. This week I return to our General Election registration previews with the monster of local elections this year, the newly formed #NY22.

#NY22 is the new Central New York district. #NY22 is a legacy district from the old #NY24 which has been represented by John Katko (R) since 2014. In the wake of his vote to Impeach former President Trump Representative Katko decided not to run for re-election. The Central New York seat was seen as a prime pickup opportunity for Democrats before Katko’s decision, and now that it is an open seat it is seen as one of the most competitive in the nation. The late redistricting process and August Primary has now seen two candidates emerge as Katko’s would be successor, Francis Conole (D), and Brandon Williams (R).

The New York redistricting process reshaped the Central New York congressional district as well. The old #NY24 had Onondaga County as the focal point of its district and stretched North into portions of Oswego and west into Cayuga and Wayne County. The special master decided to excise the northern and western portion of the district while keeping Onondaga and a tiny portion of the village of Cleveland in Oswego County. It now spans East also encompassing Madison and Oneida County. The Special Master also renamed the district #NY22 as the old #Ny22 was divided as NY lost a district and upstate grew less than downstate.

The newly drawn #NY22 has a slight Democratic lean at least in enrollment. Democrats make up 36% of the registered voters while Republicans make up 31%. Non-enrolled make up 26% of the district. This type of spread is the hallmark of a competitive district in upstate New York. Onondaga is the controlling county of the district with 63% of the registered voters. Oneida is second with 28% of the district. Madison has just 9% of the district. The 237 voters in the Oswego village of Cleveland barely register in the district.

The old #NY24 was already an emerging Democratic leaning district with the power of incumbency keeping John Katko in place, despite two close elections. In 2012 the Central New York district was drawn as a nearly even district. However, during the ten years of its existence it grew increasingly Democratic. Lost 1,657 voters. The Non-enrolled gained the most with 19,235 more registered voters. Redistricting added to Democratic gains in the district. The redistricting added 11,324 Democrats to the district, nearly doubling the gains since 2012. The district had to gain overall in voters as well, so the GOP gained 4769 voters wiping out the deficit that had been happening. Non-enrolled in redistricting only gained 2,253 voters suggesting a more partisan district than in the past. New York Redistricting and You showed that the old #NY24 was a Biden +11.8 district while the new #NY22 is a Biden +7.6 district. This suggest despite the registration advantage, it is a slightly more conservative district overall.

Onondaga County is not just the most populous of all the counties in #NY22, its Democratic lean is solely responsible for the tilt of the district. The GOP losses in registration in this county has brought it to third place and Democrats have started winning county wide races as well as Statewide and congressional candidates have been carrying the county regularly. Oneida in second place has a definitive GOP lean though Democrats are in a solid second place there due to the city of Utica. Madison County is easily the most conservative portion of the district with the GOP solidly in first place and the non-enrolled threatening to overtake the Democrats. The tiny portion of Oswego is like most parts of Oswego, decidedly Republican.

It is hard to truly determine how this new district performs in relation to former races. However, in an attempt to do so I have taken the county wide results for 2020 Presidential, 2018 & 2020 congressional races, and the 2018 Gubernatorial race in an attempt to see how this district might perform. #NY22 & #ny24 had competitive congressional races even with different candidates so I merged the votes of DEM and GOP candidates together over the three big counties, Onondaga, Oneida, and Madison. Sorry village of Cleveland, I am afraid you are along for the ride.

The results of these four races show a truly competitive district. Joe Biden on these three counties by 7.42 points in 2020. However, the GOP candidate for Governor, Marc Molinaro, won the combined counties by 4.15 points. The Democratic and GOP candidates for Congress in 2018 and 2020 were the same as Anthony Brindisi faced off against Claudia Tenney in #NY22 in the counties of Madison and Oneida, and Dana Balter faced John Katko in Onondaga. Ironically 2018 was a better year for both Democrats despite lower turnout. Democrats won the district as a whole in 2018 by 1.82 points. Higher turnout though, despite Bidens win in 2020, brought a better result for the GOP as they then won the new #NY22 by 2.42 points. Some of that over performance is the WFP line was split in Onondaga among a third-party candidate. It is possible if that candidate did not split off votes, specially in Onondaga County, Democrats would have had a similar performance from 2018.

If we dive deeper into the results by county, we truly see the division of this district. Onondaga County was the best performing county in the district with strong Democratic advantages in three of the four competing races and once again likely would have prevailed in the congressional race of 2020 if not for the split on the WFP line. Oneida though, despite relatively close Democratic enrollment, shows a decided GOP performance in the Presidential and Governor races. However, Brindisi was able to win in Oneida in 2018 and kept it close in 2020. Madison on the other hand Democrats have not been so lucky. Losing this county in all four races though again in 2018, the last mid term year, the Democrats were decidedly close in the race.

Next week I will start my review of the August 23rd primary. Over the next four weeks we will look at Early Voting, Absentee Voting, Election Day, and overall turnout. Then as October comes, I will look at the final five races for the General Election, the 5th Judicial district, #SD48 & #SD50 and the towns of Manlius and Onondaga. Remember to subscribe to dustinczarny.com to get all election news and content updates.

Zoom With Czarny: Annaleigh Porter for County Court Judge

Today I sit down with Annaleigh Porter. She is running for the vacated seat in Onondaga County Court seat made by the retirement of Steve Dougherty. We talk about her career as a lawyer, joining the race late, and running county wide to be the first female County Court Judge. Enjoy .

Follow her at https://porterforcountycourt.com/

subscribe to dustinczarny.com for all election news and content updates

Coretti’s lead over Abbott narrows; recount coming in Conservative primary for NY Senate – Syracuse.com

With only 543 total votes, it’s unlikely that the hand count next week will change the results enough to make Abbott the winner.

“I would be very surprised. But that’s why we do it, just to see,’’ Czarny said.

https://www.syracuse.com/news/2022/08/corettis-lead-over-abbott-narrows-recount-coming-in-conservative-primary-for-ny-senate.html