Welcome to the #weeklywonk. This is my weekly blog about statistics, registration data, and election law on my website, dustinczarny.com. This is a rebrand of my #wonkywednesday and #sundaythoughts columns I have been writing since 2020. In merging these two side projects together I am hoping to be a little more regular in my production. I have also not tied myself to a particular day to release these columns, hoping to release them weekly on the weekend. This way I can have more time to gather the statistics and resources that I want to devote to these articles. This week I return to our General Election registration previews with NY Assembly District 126.

#AD126 spans two counties, Onondaga Can Cayuga. It starts in the southwest corner of Onondaga and contains all of the southern agrarian towns of Pompey, Lafayette, Fabius, Tully, Otisco, Spafford, & Marcellus. It also has the Town of Camillus as well as the western border towns of Lysander, Elbridge & Skaneateles. It the dives into the middle portion of Cayuga with the towns of Cato, Conquest, Mentz, Brutus, Throop, Sennett, and Owasco. Finally, it has the entire City of Auburn inside of it as well.

#AD126 is a republican leaning district. The GOP holds the plurality with 36% of the 94,979 registered voters. Democrats are a solid second with 32% of the district. The Non-enrolled, while significant, is third at 27%. The enrollment indicates a GOP favored district but one that is competitive. Onondaga County dominates the district with 70% of the Registered voters while Cayuga has just 30%.

This district has had a growing Democratic registration in it for the last ten years. From 2012 to 2021 Democrats grew by 1169 voters while the GOP grew by just 185, The Non-enrolled has been the major growth in the district growing by 3,557 voters. Redistricting though made this district substantially better for Democrats. Since 2021 Democrats added 1782 voters, nearly double the growth of the previous ten. The GOP only grew 382. Non-Enrolled grew the most again with 2,030 voters. The old #ad126 was underpopulated and needed to add population during redistricting and it is clear the added portions were democratic leaning.

The Onondaga portion of the district is what gives the district it is GOP lean. Republicans hold a 38% plurality of the Onondaga County Portion of the district with Democrats having 30% and non-enrolled 28%. The best town for Democrats in Onondaga Is Camillus which has a small plurality of Democrats. Lysander is the best GOP stronghold with a large plurality. These are also the two largest towns in Onondaga. The rest of the towns all have GOP leans with Democrats often in third place in these smaller agrarian towns.

The Cayuga portion of #AD126 is actually Democratic leaning. Democrats have a plurality of 36%. Republicans are second with 24%. Non-enrolled or Blanks are just 24%. The City of Auburn dominates the Cayuga portion of the district in size and ideology. The three border towns of Owasco, Sennett, and Throop are slightly GOP leaning but more purple than the other towns of the district. All of the other more agrarian towns the GOP is leading, and Democrats are in a distant second or even third place.

I have abandoned my comparative races for this analysis because of two varied reasons. The first is this district changed quite a bit during redistricting so past races inside the district would not be a good comparison. Also, the fact this district crosses county lines makes it hard for me to get the data on past races as in districts like this I rely on State Board of Election data that is not broken down by town. However, to take a look at how this district might perform I rely on the NY redistricting and You website from CUNY. They estimate that this district went from a Trump +2.6 districts to a Biden +24 district. That is a 5-point swing in the Democrat advantage. In 2020 John Lemondes (R), the current rep of the district won this race by 13.6 points. A 5-point swing would put this race in striking distance for a Democratic candidate riding a post-Dobbs wave and a registration surge.

Next week I will continue my review of the races on the ballot for the General election. Next up I look at the 126th Assembly District the only GOP held state district in Onondaga County. I plan to look at each race on the new #NY22 Congressional seat to preview the hottest race in the country this fall, right in our backyards. Remember to subscribe to dustinczarny.com to get all election news and content updates.

Welcome to the #weeklywonk. This is my weekly blog about statistics, registration data, and election law on my website, dustinczarny.com. This is a rebrand of my #wonkywednesday and #sundaythoughts columns I have been writing since 2020. In merging these two side projects together I am hoping to be a little more regular in my production. I have also not tied myself to a particular day to release these columns, hoping to release them weekly on the weekend. This way I can have more time to gather the statistics and resources that I want to devote to these articles. This week I return to our General Election registration previews with NY Assembly District 127.

#Ad127 has been represented by Assemblyman Al Stirpe since 2008 with the exception of 2010-2012 when he lost his re-election in the red wave of 2010. The core of this district remains the towns Clay, Cicero, and Manlius.  These are the three largest town in Onondaga County and have been in this district during since at least 2002. They remained during in the new district passed by the Assembly this last year. The towns of Pompey, Tully and Fabius were in the district during the last ten years but are now out. Now in the district this assembly seat goes east into Madison County picking up the Town of Cazenovia. The Assembly district may be altered yet again next cycle as the current Assembly lines are under judicial review.

The new #AD127 has 93,540 voters in it. It is considered lean Democratic district with Democrats making up the plurality of the district at 34%. The GOP is in second at 31%. The Non-enrolled is a close third at 28%. Regionally this district is dominated by the Town of Clay at 44% of the registered voter population. Manlius is at 27% and Cicero at 24%. The town of Cazenovia is just 5%.

For years, this district was seen as a lean red district. The changing nature of the suburbs during the Trump presidency. As the suburbs got bluer so did the district. Between 2012 & 212 the old district saw Democrats gained 5088 voters, the GOP only gained 389 voters, and the non-enrolled gained the most at 5054. The 2022 figures represent the new #AD127. The drop off of voters reflected the overpopulation that happened in the district during the last ten years. Clay, Cicero, and Manlius were some of the fastest growing areas of our country. The result of the redistricting caused Democrats to lose 1,018 voters, GOP to lose 1772 voters, and non-enrolled to lose 1338 voters. This made the district slightly bluer than before.

The Town of Clay dominates the district both in region and its bluer nature has fueled the trend toward Democrat enrollment. We will look at the town of Manlius later this year, but it is not only the second highest Town in population it is now one of the bluer towns and rapidly changing. Cicero remains the only populous town with out a blue enrollment edge with the GOP still having a significant plurality in the town. While the Town of Cazenovia is slightly GOP, the addition of this town with the exclusion of Pompey and Tully does make it a bluer town as it is less populous and less GOP than them.

We have not had elections in the new district so our comparative results will be on the old district. Since there were only slight changes it is reasonable to expect the new district will react similar. It is definitely a swing district reacting race by race. Biden won the old district by 10.28 points in 2020 while GOP Congressman John Kakto won it by 11.76 points. IN the Governor’s race of 2018 GOP candidate Mark Molinaro won the district by 4.66 points. Al Stirpe has easily won his last two reelections in 2018 by 16.03 points and 2020 by 9.13 points. While we can’t tell how the new district will react race by race, NY Redistricting and you did do an analysis on the Presidential performance.  It shows that Biden won the old district by 10.6% and the new district by 12.0%. So, this is a slight swing of 1.4% and it is hard to tell if the district will swing that way in down ballot races.

Next week I will continue my review of the races on the ballot for the General election. Next up I look at the 126th Assembly District the only GOP held state district in Onondaga County. I plan to look at each race on the General election ballot leading up to November. Remember to subscribe to dustinczarny.com to get all election news and content updates.