Welcome back to Wonky Wednesday.  Each week I do a deep dive into the election and registration data that makes up the electoral landscape of our home, Onondaga County.  I hope by looking into this data we can glean that this everchanging county is not monolithic as once thought and competition for Democrats, and all registrations, can be found everywhere.  This week I investigate the Town of Spafford.

The Town of Spafford sits in the Southwestern corner of our county sandwiched between Otisco and Skaneateles lake.  This mostly agrarian town has no villages or urban centers. It is wholly inside the 6^th Onondaga County Legislative district currently represented by Julie Abbott Keenan seeking her 3^rd term.  

Spafford is one of the smaller towns in terms of voter registration, smaller than a few City of Syracuse wards.  Their voter registration has remained basically stable since 2009. The jumps in 2019 and 2020 are probably not permanent increases but the reflection of normal increases associated with Presidential elections.  Without a lot of rental and housing developments it is unlikely that a major population surge can happen in this small town.

The current registration of the Town of Spafford shows a solid GOP town.  Republicans make up 44% of the town with Democrats at 27%.  Non-enrolled (BLK) voters’ makeup 23% of the town.  Spafford has just two election districts.  The 1^st Election District is only the northern 3^rd of the town; however, it contains more residents than the southern 2/3rds of the town in the second Election District.

The GOP domination in enrollment of this town remains though their registration has plateaued as of late.  Democrats have increased their numbers as of late but only slightly. The largest increase is in the non-enrolled population.  This non-enrolled population has truly behaved as a swing electorate in this town over the last few years.

The two election districts are not drastically different in terms of party enrollment, but they are distinct.  The smaller in area but more populous 1^st district has a little less extreme disadvantage for Democrats.  It is clear though in both districts Democrats need help from the non-enrolled to overcome the GOP advantages.

The significant six races provide some evidence that a Democrat and non-enrolled is possible under the right circumstances.  Much like other Southwestern towns like Marcellus and Skaneateles, in 2019 the GOP candidates for County Executive, County Clerk, and County Comptroller had solid margins of victory in this town.  The same dynamic happened in 2020 with Congress with Katko winning a sizable share.  We again see though a virtual tie for NYS Senate and Biden winning this town by 5 points.  The Democrats have won town wide office here, controlling majority on the Town Board and the Highway Superintendent.  In the past they have also controlled the Supervisor.

The Town of Spafford Democrats have already nominated their candidates for town office by petition last March.  Christine Fesko and Hannah Tighe are running again for Town Board and Jody Fisher is running for Highway Superintendent.   If you are interested in getting involved contact Spafford Town Democratic Chair David Hempson and you can contact him at dhempson24@gmail.com

Welcome back to Wonky Wednesday.  Each week I do a deep dive into the election and registration data that makes up the electoral landscape of our home, Onondaga County.  I hope by looking into this data we can glean that this everchanging county is not monolithic as once thought and competition for Democrats, and all registrations, can be found everywhere.  This week I investigate the Town of Skaneateles.

The Town of Skaneateles sits in the Southwestern corner of our county wrapping around the northern half of Skaneateles Lake.  While many people think of the village of Skaneateles when talking about the town, it is worth noting that it has a wide diversity of geography.  In addition to the bustling village there are large mansions on the lake as well as many rural agricultural areas of the town.  

The overall population of the town of Skaneateles is definitely in the smaller side but it is growing.  General population shifts and more housing could be part of the growth. Just as likely are the easier voter registration tools since 2016 allowing some of the population to stay registered and active.  2020 saw a huge registration surge in this town as well which is typical for a Presidential year.

The current registration of the Town of Skaneateles shows a solid GOP town.  Republicans make up 39% of the town with Democrats at 30%.  Non-enrolled (BLK) voters makeup 24% of the town.  Skaneateles is all contained within the 6^th County Legislative district so we will be looking at the 8 Election Districts that divide the town.  The two largest Election Districts, 2 & 4, make up the village of Skaneateles while the rest of the town is in less populous but larger area Election Districts.

Democrats have been making solid gains on the GOP.  A steady increase in Democratic enrollment is starting to change the makeup of this town.  Combine that with a slight decrease in GOP enrollment that really cuts into the lead the GOP has seen in this town.  Rising numbers in the non-enrolled registrants provides an opportunity for Democrats.  IF they can piece together a coalition of non-enrolled voters they could on occasion compete in town wide races.  

The election districts in Skaneateles provide an example of the dichotomy of this changing town.  EDs 2 & 4 makeup the village of Skaneateles where Democrats have seen the most gains.  In the village Democrats have drawn near even with Republicans.  The other election districts either represent more affluent areas or rural communities.  There Democrats still trail by quite a bit.  

The significant six races provide some surprises in this reliably red town.  In 2019 the GOP candidates for County Executive, County Clerk, and County Comptroller had solid margins of victory in this town.  The same dynamic happened in 2020 with Congress with Katko winning a sizable share.  However the State Senate race was under 1.5% difference, virtually tied, in the town of Skaneateles.  Most surprising is that Biden won by over 13 points.  While there is a conservative lean to this town they will reject more Trumpian candidates if there is a coalition of Democrats and Non-enrolled working together.

The Town of Skaneateles Democrats nominates their candidates by caucus. They will elect their Supervisor, Clerk, two town councilors, highway superintendent, and Tax Collector in 2021. If you are interested in getting involved or running for office contact Skaneateles Town Democratic Chair Alan Johnson at alanartjohnson310@gmail.com.