Welcome back to my Wonky Wednesday series where I dive into the election and registration data that makes up the electoral landscape of Onondaga County.  This week I take a look at the agrarian town of Lafayette.  This small town is the host of one of our Early Voting sites and south of Syracuse.  It is one of only four towns in our county that does not have a village nor is split up by County Legislature districts.  This makes the town hard to dissect for campaigns and candidates.

The Town of Lafayette voter enrollment was basically stagnate over the last decade.  There was a moderate bump in voter enrollment that plateaued in 2016.  We saw a much greater bump this last year in enrollment.   When the Census data is released it will be interesting to see whether this reflected a population shift or just non registered voters taking advantage of better access to voter registration options.

The Town of Lafayette is a comfortably GOP town.  Democrats actually are outnumbered by the non-enrolled in this town.  When you throw in the Conservative numbers and virtual non-existent WFP party the ideological divide becomes more of a chasm. There are 5 election districts in Lafayette that are relatively even in size.

Republican enrollments in the town had been receding or stagnate since 2009.  Non-enrolled and Democrats were closing the gap on the GOP until 2020. In 2020 GOP Dems and N/e all increased their voter enrollment at the same rate.  There has been some slippage by the GOP post election but we really won’t know whether that means anything until the summer as more registrations are processed.

None of the election districts of Lafayette really stand out as sources for Democratic votes.  .  The 3^rd election district is the largest and represents the center of town where 81 exits into the Rt 20 the main drag of the town of Lafayette.  EDS 1 2 & 5 are more rural representing the farms and orchards of the town.  ED 4 near Jamesville Reservoir is slightly more suburban then the rest of the town.  Of those ED 4 is the place where Democrats are closest to the GOP, but even there the gap is substantial.

The election results of our significant six races are not typical of other areas of town.  In 2019 County Executive McMahon actually ran behind the County clerk race indicating another place where more rural voters were not as trustful of the CE.  County Comptroller Masterpole ran surprisingly well given the partisan lean of the town.  Interesting in 2020 Senator Rachel May out performed Joe Biden in the district. This indicates to me a form of negative partisanship permeates the electorate but Democrats can cut into the margins if they are local and known to the populace.

The best hopes for Democratic success in Lafayette is to appeal to the large and growing non-enrolled community and look for local issues to rally around.  In 2021 the town of Lafayette has the following up for election: Supervisor, 3 Town Councilors, Highway Superintendent, and Tax Collector.  The Lafayette Democratic Committee appoints candidates by caucus. IF you are interested contact the chair Bruce Donahue at bpdcpa@twcny.rr.com and the Lafyette Democratic Committee can be found on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/lafaydems

Welcome back to Wonky Wednesday.  This is my weekly deep dive into the election and registration data that makes up the electoral landscape of Onondaga County.  Today I dive into the Town of Geddes.  One of the more dense suburban towns in Onondaga County.  Dominated by the largest village in Onondaga County, the wild village of Solvay (more on that later this summer) and the NYS Fairgrounds.  This town is undergoing so dramatic recent change in the wake of the 2020 election..

Geddes experiences a mini surge of registered voters in the 2020 election.  Unlike other suburban towns that saw steadier increases over the last few years, Geddes saw a jump of over 500 voters or a increase of over 4.3% in just one year.  This is more like what we normally see during a presidential year.  A big one time jump followed by a slow decline.  The jump happened and we will have to see if the decline does as well.

The Town of Geddes flipped to be a plurality Democratic town in 2016.  Democrats currently have a decent 3% lead on GOP enrollment.  However there is an outsized conservative party enrollment which almost closes the gap.  Geddes, like most of the suburban Democratic towns, are split into multiple election districts.  OCL 8 (Chris Ryan) and OCL 15 (Bill Kinne) are represented by Democrats and have substantial city portions of their districts.  OCL 4 wraps around Onondaga lake and into Salina and is the more GOP portion of the town.  This seat though is open this year as long time County Legislator Tassone is retiring.

The story of the town enrollment in Geddes follows the story of suburbs all across Onondaga County and really the nation.  THE GOP enrollment has stagnated over the last 6 years while Democrats were on a slow rise which exploded over the last two years.  Also growing in that time period is the non-enrolled population.  IT seems new enrollments in this town are overwhelming Democrat and non-enrolled as the GOP struggles to tread water.

The three County Legislative districts in Geddes are pretty unique.  OCL 4 is the Northern Lakeland portion of the Town.  This tends to be more suburban and upper-class area that has a definitive GOP lean.  OCL 8 is more even with a slight Democratic lean combining the southern portion of Geddes.  When paired with the city portion of the district is seen as a safe Democratic seat.  OCL 15 has the Village of Solvay and was once represented by current CE Ryan McMahon however once he left the Democrats were able to easily win this district back with Bill Kinne and it is seen as a safer Democratic seat.

The Town of Geddes performs like the typical swing town in our significant six races.  In 2019 CE McMahon was able to easily win the Town but Marty Masterpole was able to also win a majority here.  Perhaps most telling is how close the county clerk race was with little money spent this was a surprisingly close race in this town.  IN 2020 Democrats did much better with significant wins by Biden and John Mannion.  Geddes is the hometown for Mannion (not Camillus as I previously reported) so that helped swing results his way.  Like most towns Balter did not far well against Katko here.  

Democrats must capitalize on the recent Democratic surge in this town to take be successful.  This means increasing turnout and winning over the ever increasing non-enrolled voter.  In 2021 the supervisor, two town justices, and three town councilors are up for election.  The Democrats elect candidates by Caucus in this town.  If you are interested in running contact Geddes Town Democrat chair John Ferguson at  jferg393@gmail.com and the Solvay Geddes Committee can be found on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/geddesdems