Elections Professional and Activist
Today I sit down with Steve Williams, a former federal prosecutor, congressional candidate, and Partner with Smith Sovak. His background gives us great insight into the 34 felony convictions handed down last week to former president Donald Trump. Enjoy. Find out more about Steve here:
https://smithsovik.com/attorney/steven-ward-williams/
Subscribe to dustinczarny.com for all content and election news updates
Today i talk about the June Village Elections on June 18th and the June federal and local primaries on June 25th. Liverpool Village residents will be able to choose for two uncontested village trustees and and a proposition to move village elections to November. Onondaga County Democrats will choose a nominee for congress and in SD 50, and republicans will choose a nominee in sd 48 on June 25th. Check it out.
Subscribe to dustinczarny.com for all content and election news updates
.Welcome back to the #weeklywonk. In this space I try to shed light on the forces that make up the body politic in New York and Onondaga County. Each week I will look at electoral and registration data that make up a political subdivision or an election event. I continue my look at political subdivisions that will make up the General Election 2024. This week I investigate the sole village having a June election this year, the village of Liverpool.
The Village of Liverpool has 1,710 active voters making ranking it 8 out of 15 villages in Onondaga County. Democrats make up 674 voters or 39% of the active registered voters making it the plurality of the district. The GOP has just 425 voters (25%). The non-enrolled are in second place with 503 voters (29%). The Democrats have a +14.54% enrollment advantage. There are only two Election districts that make up Liverpool. Election District 3 is the west portion of the village with 979 voters (58%). Election District 4 is the eastern portion of the village with 719 voters (42%).
The Village of Liverpool was once a GOP stronghold but has transformed tremendously since 2009. This once blood red Village is now dominated by Democrats. The GOP has now fallen to third place behind the non-enrolled. Like other areas of the county the Democrats had a dramatic rise during the Trump’s Presidency from 2016 to 2020 Democrats gaining 100 voters, the Gop gained just 12 voters and the non-enrolled gained 79 voters. Since 2021 Democrats continued gaining 46 voters, the GOP has lost 77 voters, and the non-enrolled gained 21 voters.
The two different regions of Liverpool lean to the Democrats. Liverpool is divided down the center with Election District 3 to the west, and Election District 4 to the east. Both eds have Democrats in the lead, followed by the non-enrolled and the GOP in third. Election District 3 has a +14.30% to the Democrats and ed 4 has +14.87% to the Democrats.
It’s a new year and we have a new addition to our four comparative races, though it will feel slightly familiar. In addition to the Presidential race of 2020, the Supreme Court race of 2021, the Governor’s race of 2022, we will look at the County Clerk race of 2023 to compare how it performed in the political subdivision we are investigating. This replaces the 2019 County Clerk race, but we can now compare those races as well. This village not only is dominated by the Democrats in registration but in performance as well. In 2020 Biden won this town by 28.72%. Democrats also won the village of Liverpool in the 2021 Supreme Court (+22.68%), 2022 Governor (+26.75%), & 2023 County Clerk race (+21.53%), and. However, another promising sign for Democrats is the electoral chances seem to be improving. When comparing the 2019 County Clerk race to the 2023 County Clerk race Democrats did +6.53% better. The Democrats also won the control of the Town Board in 2023 as well as the Village Mayor winning that race by 12.06%.
Last year I introduced heat maps as a way of showing the complex makeup of the political subdivisions that will have races this year. The village of Liverpool has only 2 Eds and they both fall into the solid Democratic camp (Dem +10-15%).
One final data point I wanted to bring to this #weeklywonk is a reminder of the results when previous village elections moved to November. Since 2016 four villages oved their elections from March to November, Solvay, E. Syracuse, and Tully in 2016 and Elbridge in 2019. I decided to compare votes cast in the races before the change and after. This is not voter turnout, but actual votes cast in village wide races. All four villages not only saw dramatic turnout in the first election, but it was also sustained after. Solvay saw a +38.64% increase in its Mayoral elections. E. Syracuse saw a +88.27% increase in its Mayoral election. Even non-contested elections had massive turnout increases. Tully and Elbridge had +762.5% and +812% increases. This is why Syracuse.com issued an editorial endorsing the moves in 2023, as they did in 2016. It is also why Baldwinsville (54.89%) and Fayetteville (60.67%) voters overwhelmingly decided to move their village elections to November in March.
The are two village board races up in June as well as however they are unopposed by the Democrats. Part of the reason for that was the timeline for finding village candidates was truncated with June elections. However, village voters will have a chance to move their elections to November. Proposition 1 will allow voters to move the village elections to November and save 100% of future election costs while boosting turnout and the ability to recruit candidates.
That is, it for this week’s edition of the #WeeklyWonk. Next week I will start my look at the Assembly Districts having races in Onondaga County. First up is Assembly district 126, the only GOP held state legislative district in Onondaga County. As always you can find it on dustinczarny.com where you can subscribe for email notifications for content and election news updates.
I have seen a great deal of chatter on whether Donald Trump can or cannot vote now that he has been convicted. I have done a bit of research and talked to a few trusted colleagues, and this is what I have produced. In short, yes, he can until or unless he is actually incarcerated.
A few caveats before I begin, I am not a lawyer nor an expert in Florida election law. I have what I consider a good deal of familiarity with NY Election Law, which possibly comes into play here despite Trump being a Florida resident. Here is what I found.
First off There is a Florida AG opinion from 1977 that may play the most important role here that states that a defendant will not lose his voting rights in Florida until the appeals have run their course “”A conviction of felony in a trial court will not disqualify the defendant as an elector, candidate for office or office holder, when an appeal is prosecuted from such conviction, until the appeal is disposed of by the appellate court.”
https://www.myfloridalegal.com/ag-opinions/felony-conviction-on-appeal-voting
Donald Trump is a Florida resident so likely this opinion could come into play. However, Florida also defers to other states laws when a resident is tried and convicted in another State. That is where NYS law may come into play.
So, what does NY law say? 5-106.2 of NYS Election Law states this “No person who has been convicted of a felony and sentenced to a period of imprisonment for such felony pursuant to the laws of this state, shall have the right to register for or vote at any election while he or she is incarcerated for such felony.”
https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/ELN/5-106
A NY Voter must be convicted, sentenced, AND incarcerated to lose their voting rights in NY. Donald Trump has not been sentenced yet. That is scheduled to happen July 11, 2024, but could be delayed while appeals are ongoing. However, if it is not delayed, sentencing alone will not remove his voting rights in NY. He needs to physically be incarcerated.
If the sentencing happens and it includes incarceration it is likely that it will be delayed until the appeals are heard. That would mean under NY law Trump would be eligible to vote in NY, and conversely in Florida.
Unless and until Trump is actually sitting in a jail cell in the state of New York, he retains his voting rights in my opinion. The appeal process will likely happen well after Election Day, so yes, he will be able to vote for himself this November.
Thank you to my colleagues in Florida and New York who helped by giving me information whose names will remain anonymous if I have gotten this ridiculously wrong.
Subscribe to dustinczarny.com for all content and election news updates.
This week I speak with Ian Phillips who is running for NY Assembly 126th district. This district is in the southern and western portions of Onondaga County and into Auburn and Cayuga County. We had a great conversation and I hope you enjoy. Find more about Ian here: https://www.ianforcny.com/about
Subscribe to dustinczarny.com for all content and election news updates
Today was the last day to file independent nominating petitions in Onondaga County and New York State. We had filings for US President, United States Senate, NY Congressional district 22, Assembly District 127, and Village of Fayetteville. I go over the candidates and some surprising wrinkles. Enjoy.
Subscribe to dustinczarny.com for all content and election news updates
Welcome back to the #weeklywonk. In this space I try to shed light on the forces that make up the body politic in New York and Onondaga County. Each week I will look at electoral and registration data that make up a political subdivision or an election event. I continue my look at political subdivisions that will make up the General Election 2024. This week I investigate the only town having a primary this election, the Town of Lysander.
The Town of Lysander has 17,525 active voters making it a mid-size suburban town in Onondaga County. Democrats make up 5,059 voters or 29% of the active registered voters of the district. The GOP makes up the plurality with 6,345 voters (36%). The non enrolled are a close third with 4,928 voters (28%). The GOP have a +7.34% enrollment advantage. For this article, I once again break up the town into Western, Center, Southern, Eastern regions, and a portion of the Village of Baldwinsville. The southern portion (eds 5,8,9,10) make up 24% of the town (4,172 voters). The eastern portion (eds 6,13,14,16) make up 23% of the town (3,970 voters). The center portion (eds 3,11,17,18) make up 20% of the town (3,486 voters). The western portion (eds 1,2,15) make up 14% of the town (4,172 voters). There is also a portion of the village of Baldwinsville that straddles Van Buren and Lysander. The Lysander portion of the village of Baldwinsville (Eds 4,7,12) make up 19% of the town (3,381 voters).
The Town of Lysander has had quote a journey since 2009. This once blood red town has moved quite a bit towards the Democrats. And non-enrolled. This is dramatic during the Trump’s Presidency from 2016 to 2020 Democrats gained 1,173 voters, the Gop gained just 539 voters and the non-enrolled gained 1013 voters. Since 2021 the district has remained basically stagnate with Democrats gaining just 33 voters, the GOP losing 185 voters, and the non-enrolled gaining the most with 494 voters.
The five different regions of Lysander are all lean to the GOP but by different degrees. The most GOP district is the West, with the GOP having a +20.39% advantage and the Democrats outnumbered by the N/E. The second most GOP district is the southern region with the GOP having a +9.13% advantage and once again the Democrats in third place to the n/e. In the eastern district the GOP has just a +4.86% advantage and the Democrats rose to 2nd place. The Center district is +3.90% GOP as Democrats inched closer to the GOP. The least GOP portion is the village of Baldwinsville with just a +1.86% advantage for the GOP.
It’s a new year and we have a new addition to our four comparative races, though it will feel slightly familiar. In addition to the Presidential race of 2020, the Supreme Court race of 2021, the Governor’s race of 2022, we will look at the County Clerk race of 2023 to compare how it performed in the political subdivision we are investigating. This replaces the 2019 County Clerk race, but we can now compare those races as well. This town, though a slight GOP lean, has shown an ability to vote Democratic. In 2020 Biden won this town by 4.34%. The Democrats also won the Town Supervisor race in 2023 by 10.23%. However, the GOP won inside Lysander for the 2023 County Clerk race (+13.07%), 2022 Governor (+7.25%), and 2021 Supreme Court (+12.91%). However, another promising sign for Democrats is the electoral chances seem to be improving. When comparing the 2019 County Clerk race to the 2023 County Clerk race Democrats did +4.83% better. Also, when comparing the 2019 Town Supervisor race Democrats did +28.02% better but that can be chalked up to Kevin Rhode consolidating support with the conservative party running a 3rd party candidate in 2019 while supporting Supervisor Rhode in 2023.
Last year I introduced heat maps as a way of showing the complex makeup of the political subdivisions that will have races this year. #SD48 has some of the highest variety of political polarization of any district we will see this year. There is only one of the 18 election districts (17) where Democrats have an advantage, represented by the solid blue category (Dem +10-15%) The eds with light purple (eds 4 & 8 have a borderline Dem lean (Dem 0-5%). The eds with the dark purple (eds 6,7,12,13, & 18) have a borderline GOP lean (GOP 0-5%). The eds in pink (ed 11 & 14) have a slight GOP lean (GOP 5-10%). The eds in red (Eds 5,9, 16) have a solid GOP lean (GOP 10-15%). The eds in burgundy (eds 2 & 3) have a strong GOP lean (GOP 15-20%). Finally, the eds in dark red (ED 1,10,15) have an overwhelming Gop lean (GOP +20%).
This year in addition to the heat map I look at the number of districts that lean. Though Lysander has been trending towards the Democrats over the last 15 years, there are no regional advantages for the Democrats. There is only one ed out of the 18 that democrats with 788 voters or 4.5%. There are 7 eds with GOP lean have 9074 voters or 51.78%.
There will be a GOP primary for the Lysander Town Board vacancy between Joel Lorenzo and Eugene Dinsmoore. The Conservatives have backed Eugene Dinsmoore setting up an interesting problematic outcome for the GOP should Dinsmoore win. The Democrats have nominated Ken Christopher who ran unsuccessfully for Town Justice in 2023. The Democrats best hope is to form a coalition amongst Democratic and non-enrolled voters to overcome the slight GOP advantage and hope for increased turnout among democratic constituencies due to the Presidential race. Though a split ticket may theoretically help Democrats, it didn’t in 2019 when the GOP won a similar race for town supervisor by over 28%.
That is, it for this week’s edition of the #WeeklyWonk. Next week I will look at the village of Liverpool that is having village elections in June of 2024. They have a proposition to move their elections to November so we will get a sense of the village as a whole. As always you can find it on dustinczarny.com where you can subscribe for email notifications for content and election news updates.
This week I sit down with Tom Speaker of Re-invent Albany. This good government group is focused on transparency in Albany as well as campaign finance and election administration. As legislative director we talk about Tom’s work to move Albany into the light. Enjoy.
Subscribe to dustinczarny.com for all content and election news updates
In a special Monday edition I talk about the annual school district elections happening tomorrow. Every school district will be running an election on Tuesday May 21, 2024, except the City of Syracuse which holds them in odd years in November. BOEs don’t run the elections for school districts so contact the school districts for further information. Enjoy.
Subscribe to dustinczarny.com for all content and election news updates
The new district lines were then projected to add 30,000 registered Democrats to the district, giving the party a nearly “20,000 voter edge,” according to preliminary calculations by Onondaga County Board of Elections Commissioner Dustin Czarny.
Subscribe to dustinczarny.com for all election news and content updates
Dustin M. Czarny