Welcome back to #WeeklyWonk. Each weekend I publish an article on a subject relating to elections in Onondaga County and New York State. Often these articles will have detailed stats to consume but sometimes they will be a recap of a prominent issue or on relevant election law. I am turning my eye to the 2023 elections. Today I look at the Town of Geddes, a former red town that is now one of the most balanced towns in the County.

The Town of Geddes sits to the West of the City of Syracuse and borders the southern shore of Onondaga Lake.  It is a mid-sized suburban town with 12,153 voters, ranking 9^th out of 19 towns and considered the smallest suburban town. The Town of Geddes is considered a purple town, with a trend towards Democrats over the last few years.  The makeup of Geddes is 34% Democrat (4,127 Voters), 30% GOP (3,653 Voters), and 29% non-Enrolled (3,490 voters).  This year I am breaking down the Towns into as equal as possible regions and Geddes is easily broken into 4 different regions.  Northern Geddes considered the Lakeland area (eds 5, 17, & 20) has 2,258 voters (19%). The center of Geddes is the village of Solvay (Eds 1, 3, 4, 9, 12, 13, & 14), the largest village in Onondaga County with 3,956 voters (32%).   The Southern portion of Geddes is considered the Fairmount area and for this article I have broken into East and West portions.  Eastern Geddes is the Fairmount portion that borders the City of Syracuse (eds 2, 6, 11, 15, & 19) has 2,865 voters (24%).  Western Geddes is the portion of Fairmount that borders Camillus (eds 7, 8, 10, 16, & 18) has 3,074 voters (25%).

In a new feature I am bringing to the #weeklywonk this year I am doing a heat map for each political subdivision.  I will be looking at the current partisan makeup of each individual ED and heat mapping its partisan lean based on the advantage for the Democrats and GOP.  Looking at the heat map we really see that Geddes is regionally divided.    EDS 5 & 20 have strong GOP lean (-10-15%).  Eds 7 has a moderate GOP (- 5-10%).  Eds 2 & 13 have slight GOP leans (-0-5%).  Eds 3, 14, & 18 have slight Democratic advantages between 0-5%.  Ed 6, 7, 11, 12, & 15 has a moderate Democratic advantage (+5-10%) and ED 1, 4, 8, 10, & 19 has a strong Democratic advantage (+10-15%). Ed 9 has a superior Democratic lean (-15-20%).  Ed 16 is evenly split between Democrats and the GOP.  Republicans seemed to be clustered into the Lakeland portion of Geddes in the north and the Center of Solvay while Democrats dominate the rest of Solvay and the Fairmount portion of Geddes in the South.

Since 2009 The Town of Geddes has steadily trended towards the Democrats and has switched from a solid GOP town to purple town that is leaning Democrat.  The Democrats have gained 436 voters since 2009. The GOP has lost 547 voters during that time.  The Non-enrolled has gained nearly as many voters as the Democrats with 428 more voters.   Like many other communities though, the Democratic gains and GOP losses seemed to have plateaued since 2020.  The non-enrolled though have made nearly all their gains since 2020.

Three of the four regions in Geddes show slight Democratic leans with one showing a strong GOP lean.  Both the East and Western portions of the Fairmount region have Democratic leans.  The West near Camillus has a larger Dem lean (+7.87) than the East portion near Syracuse (+6.14).  Solvay is not the most Democratic with +7.25 but the non-enrolled outnumber the Republicans in this village.  The Lakeland portion is the most GOP and most partisan of the regions with a strong GOP lean (-10.23) and non-enrolled outnumbering the Democrats.

Looking at the growth of voters since the last redistricting cycle we compare it with date from right before redistricting of 2012.   The Town of Geddes grew by 915 active voters since 2011.  The Village of Solvay saw the most growth with a gain of 365 voters.  In close second, we saw the Eastern Fairmount region with 246 voters.  The Western Fairmount had moderate growth of 190 voters.  The northern Lakeland region saw the least growth with just 114 voters. The Democratic areas of Geddes are growing fast than the GOP area which leads to Geddes’s transformation over the last few years.

Every region in the Town of Geddes has trended towards the Democrats since the last redistricting.   Since 2011 the Democrats have grown its advantage in Geddes by 7.59%. The Western region has had the most change with a 11.2% shift towards the Democrats.  The Eastern region also saw a shift towards the Democrats +8.93%.  The Village of Solvay had a moderate shift of +6.11%.  The northern Lakeland region had the smallest shift towards the Democrats with just +3.16%.  This shows why the town of Geddes.

When we look at the comparative races, we see a purple town that fluctuates on even and odd years but consistently votes a few percentage points behind Onondaga County as a whole. In 2022 the Town of Geddes voted for Governor Hochul’s by 51.53%, 2.25% worse than her win in Onondaga County rate of 53.78%. In 2021 the Town of Geddes voted for Anthony Brindisis for Supreme Court by 52.50%, 2.08% worse than the county result rate of 52.50%.  In 2020 Geddes President Biden had a significant win in Geddes gaining 55.36% if the vote, but also lost 3.52% points behind his Onondaga County win of 58.88%.  In 2019 Cicero voted for Democrat Mark Kolinski for County clerk by only 47.58% losing just 0.15% of his Onondaga County rate of 47.73%, doing the best comparatively.  The last head-to-head town office where Democrats contested was Supervisor in 2021 where Democrats lost by over 21%. Local offices still lag the countywide and state offices, especially on odd years.

The Town of Geddes Democrats have already caucused and will run candidates for Town Board and Village of Solvay.  If you are interested in helping these candidates or joining the Geddes Democratic committee, contact their chairperson John Ferguson at jferg393@gmail.com

That is, it for this week’s edition of the #WeeklyWonk.  Next week I will dive into the Town of Onondaga, another purple town on the cusp. As always go to dustinczarny.com and subscribe to get all your content and election news updates.  I run that website, along with these series of articles, as part of my voter education.  I never take ad money or charge subscriptions paying for the site with my own personal funds.  Subscribe here.

Welcome back to the #WeeklyWonk. Each weekend I release an article on a subject relating to elections in Onondaga County and New York State. Often these articles will have detailed stats to consume but sometimes they will be a recap of a prominent issue or on relevant election law. I am turning my eye to the 2023 elections. This week I take a break from looking at the political subdivisions and focus on and look at Party Changes and New Voter Registration in Onondaga County for 2023.

Each year New York has a freeze on party enrollment changes.  For over 100 year that freeze started 25 days before the previous General Election and lasted until 7 days after the primary.  The primary then was in September so that essentially meant an 11 month freeze in party changes.  When the political calendar was changed in 2019 to move the primary to June that shortened the window by 3 months, however that was still one of the longest in the nation.  In 2020 the Mew York State Legislature moved the party enrollment deadline to a single date each year, February 14^th.  Coincidentally that is Valentine’s Day, so I have named it Fall in Love with Your Party Day.  These 4 months sequester now allows voters to switch their parties ahead of the June primary if they wish to vote in it.  However, for those who don’t their party changes are held a virtual lock box until 7 days after the primary. 

For the first time in my time as Commissioner we can now get date on newly enrolled voters and party changes thanks to our new registration system.  The old system we had to compare before and after enrollment numbers that could not give out as accurate information as I would like.  As of July 7^th, we had 2954 New Enrollments in Onondaga County.  Of those new enrollments 1228 (41%) chose not to enroll in any party, 1046 (35%) enrolled in the Democratic Party, 551 (19%) enrolled in the GOP, 57 (2%) enrolled in the other party category, 49 (2%) in the Conservative party and 23 (1%) in the Working Families Party.  We had 1,125 Party switches between February 14^th and July 7^th, 2023.  420 (38%) chose not to enroll in a party, 342 (31%) enrolled as Republicans, 264 (24%) enrolled as Democrats, 36 (3%) enrolled as Conservatives, 30 (2%) enrolled as Working Families, and 21 (2%) in the other category.  Clearly the Non-enrolled are continuing to gain ground in our county.  Though the GOP had a small edge in party switches that is wiped out by the Democrats gain in newly enrolled voters.

While our system now allows us to track how newly enrolled voters in Onondaga County register, what it can’t tell us is if they are brand new enrolled voters or just new to Onondaga County.  I decided to break down the newly enrolled by age groups.  We can assume many of the younger voters 18-30 are new or first-time voters where the older groups are likely transfers from other parts of the country.  No matter the age group the pattern is clear.  Non-Enrolled voters is the biggest growing segment among newly registered voters in Onondaga County.  Democrats are also gaining nearly 2 to 1 over the GOP in each category as well.  The only exception is the 65+ group.  Here Democrats outnumber both N/E and GOP, but the differences are smaller.

350 people chose to leave the Democratic Party.  Of those that left 208 chose not to be enrolled in any party.  111 Switched to the Republican Party, 18 to the Working Family Party, 7 enrolled in the other party category, 6 enrolled in the Conservative Party.  Once again, the non-enrolled dominates this category as more voters are choosing not to be part of a party. 

209 people switched from the GOP.  While less in number that the Democrats, there are significantly less GOP in the county.  Once again, the largest number of former GOP, 131, decided to unenroll from any party.  58 decided to switch parties to the Democrats, 18 switched to conservative party, and 1 to Other, and 1 to Working Families.  As a percentage 27% switched to the Democrats while 31% switched from Democrat to GOP.

The largest party switch though was non-enrolled deciding to enroll in a party.  New York is a closed primary state so often those not enrolled in a party will choose to enroll in a party to take part in the primaries.  177 decided to enroll in the GOP and 169 enrolled as Democrats.  Only 28 decided to enroll in other parties (10 Conservative, 7 Working Families, and 9 Others).  It seems during this party change period the non-enrolled broke evenly between the GOP and Democratic party. 

The June primary was established in 2019 so we only have data for where Onondaga County stood in June going back to them.  Still, we are seeing more evidence of a leveling off in partisan advantage for the Democrats.  During the Trump years the October registration levels showed significant increases for the Democrats, until 2022.  We are seeing that in the June registration numbers The Partisan difference (Democrats vs Republican percentage) as well and Adjusted Partisan Difference (Democrats & WFO vs Republican & Conservatives) grew significantly in 2019 and 2020.  However, in 2021, 2022, and 2023 we saw a levelling off.  Trump being out of the Whitehouse is one of the reasons for this.

However, another reason for the slowing of and tepid decrease in Democratic partisan advantage is the rise of the percentage of the Electorate that is non-enrolled is taking up in the total population of Onondaga County voters.  The Non-enrolled grew from 25.74% of the electorate to 28.19% since 2019, +2.45%.  Democrats have remained steady during this time, gaining in 2019 and 2022 but slightly failing since then for a +0.16% gain.  Republicans have still steadily lost ground, losing 1.46% since 2019. 

This is my final look back at data stemming from the June primary.  I will now start to refocus my #WeeklyWonks on the remaining Political subdivisions having contests in this fall’s election. I will restart my town series looking at the Town of Geddes. Comeback each week to look at the data that makes up our home in Onondaga County. Remember to subscribe to dustinczarny.com for all election news and content updates.

Welcome back to #WeeklyWonk. Each weekend I publish an article on a subject relating to elections in Onondaga County and New York State. Often these articles will have detailed stats to consume but sometimes they will be a recap of a prominent issue or on relevant election law. I am turning my eye to the 2023 elections. This week I take a break from looking at the political subdivisions and focus on breaking down the 2023 Primary Election. This is the second in a two-part series focusing on all aspects of the 2023 primary. This week we finish with Election Day & Affidavit voting as well as Overall Turnout.

In Person Election Day voting remains the most popular form of voting. 5,376 voters (74%) voters chose to vote In-person on Election Day. 1,113 (15%) Early Voters followed this, 724 (10&) Absentee voters, 69 Affidavit voters (1%), and a single court order voter. Of the voters who voted on Election Day 3,977 (74%) were Democrat. 932 Republican (17%), and 467 (9%) Conservative. The seeming domination of Democrats on Election Day is a bit of a mirage. Because we are analyzing a primary, we must recognize the fact that Democrats had far more voters eligible for this primary than the GOP. Thus, the raw total was always going to be skewed to the Democrats.

As noted, the 2023 June Primary had a limited scope with only Democrat. n Syracuse, Republicans in Pompey and Salina, and Conservatives county wide.  This results in a small number of voters (5376) showing up on Election Day when compared to the County Wide primaries of 2020 and two primaries in 2022. However, it is similar to the 2021 June Primary which had a similar number of eligible voters. We are seeing though an interesting pattern in Election. voting as a percentage of the overall primary vote. The 2020 Pandemic primary forced many voters to Absentee. Early Voting showing the smallest amount of Election Day votes. It seemed as if Election Day was going to make a major com. ck with 2021 and 2022 June primaries. However, with the August 2022 primary and 2023 primary we have seen a steady decline in percentage of voters waiting for Election Day and we could see this being a slow steady pattern over time.

When we look at the ten top polling places for Election Day an interesting pattern emerges. We actually have eleven polling places here as there is a tie for tenth place. Of the eleven top polling places seven of them (Nottingham, Erwin, Spiritual, Bellevue, Valley Vista, Corcoran, & American Legion) were located in the OCL 15^th district lines. This primary showed a larger than average turnout. Salem Hyde and Blessed Sacrament are larger polling sites and Pompey Town Hall was part of the Pompey GOP primary. It is also noted the top three polling places (Nottingham, Erwin, Spiritual) are part of the east side 17^th Ward/University area where a large number of Democrats live and are activated by the Democratic Primary there.

This graph shows the voter check-ins by hour. Before 2020 we could not capture this data as the image cast voting machines only tracked totals by day, not hour. Our Knowink Poll Pads tracks the times of voter check-ins, so we get a decent feel for how voters ebb and flow throughout the day. All five primaries we have been able to track show a similar pattern regardless of turnout. Voters tend to increase in rate per hour until 10am. Then turnout tends to level off until 4pm. We see the biggest hours in 4-6pm as voters get out of work and vote on their way home. We then see a steep decline in the last few hours of voting until the close of polls.

Another form of voting is Affidavit voting. This is when voters show up at the polls and either do not show up in the poll book or have incorrect information such as an address that is not updated. One of the major election myths out there is that affidavit ballots are routinely thrown out. New York has done an excellent job of loosening technical violations that threw out previous ballots. In fact, 78.4% of all absentee ballots in 2023 Primary were valid and counted. Democrats took the most advantage of this with sixty-seven using this method, 5 GOP, three conservatives, eleven non-enrolled voters, and two voters enrolled in the other category. You may ask how voters not enrolled or in other parties participated in the primary, and the short answer is, they did not. The overwhelming reason for an affidavit ballot to be denied is that they were not enrolled in a party or enrolled in the wrong party for the ballot they requested with fourteen voters being disqualified because of that. Another three voters were not registered at all. And two voters returned an absentee ballot to the Board of Elections and thus we counted the absentee and not the affidavit.

As we start to look at the overall turnout, we really see just how small in scope this primary was. Onondaga County had 305,357 registered voters going into the June 2023 primary. 249,888 (82%) voters were not eligible by geography or party to vote in the primary. Another 48,189 (16%) voters were eligible but did not come out to vote. Just 7,280 (2%) of voters in Onondaga County participated in the June primary. Of those who participated Democrats had 555f (73%) voters made up the voter population. 558 (20%) were from the GOP. 559 (7%) were Conservative. When we look at turnout as a percentage of eligible voters, we saw a final turnout % of 13.12%. Democrats had 14.09% turnout, Republicans 19.48%, and Conservatives were the drag of the election with just 10.95% turnout.

When we look at primary elections going back to 2009, we see that Democrats not only have more primaries, but they are usually larger than the GOP in raw turnout. We have had nineteen primaries since 2009 with only one year, 2011, with no primary from a major party. 2 years there was only a GOP primary, 8 years there was a GOP and Dem Primary, and eight had just a Democratic primary. However, the last five primaries we have seen that there Are Democratic and GOP contests indicating more of a willingness of GOP candidates to challenge their party nominees. When it comes to turnout in a primary another pattern seems to be emerging. Early on the normal GOP advantage in turnout percentage was also represented in primaries. From 2013 2021 it was rare that the GOP had a primary and their turnout was usually lower than Democrats. However, in the last three primaries GOP turnout in primaries has tied or surpassed Democratic turnout in primaries.

Finally, we also can look at turnout in terms of regions. The normal thought on turnout in regions is that the City of Syracuse lags behind the suburbs. However, in primaries, when the primary may be the only election that matters, the City of Syracuse has often surpassed the suburbs ibn turnout, until recently. Of the nineteen primaries since 2009, 5 primaries were solely inside the City of Syracuse. Of the remaining fourteen the City of Syracuse beat the suburbs in eight of these elections. However, the last three primaries saw a correlation with the declining Democratic turnout in primaries with the decline in City turnout in primaries as Syracuse has trailed the suburbs in turnout.

That is, it the last part of my look back at the 2023 June Primary. Next week we will look at the Party Changes and New Voter Registration happening in Onondaga County. In the coming weeks, I will return to the analysis of political subdivisions having elections in 2023. Remember to subscribe to dustinczarny.com for all election news and content updates.