“It’s all about moving the counting back until after Election Day, sowing chaos, creating doubt and then in close elections, descending on them with teams of lawyers to try to throw out legitimately cast ballots,” said Dustin Czarny, the Democratic Commissioner for Onondaga County and the head of the Democratic Caucus for the New York State Elections Commissioners Association.
“It’s the Trumpification of the New York State GOP that we’re seeing in other states and haven’t seen in New York until now,” he added.
This week I sit down with Syracuse’s newest elected official, Jimmy Monto, 5th district councilor for the City of Syracuse. We talk about jumping into a political race late into the system and his decisive vote on the Syracuse Redistricting Commission maps. Enjoy.
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I also talk a bit on the status of the absentee lawsuit. It is important to remember what is at stake here is when ballots will be counted, not if. Voters should be returning absentee ballots asap!
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In this bonus Zoom with Czarny I speak to Toby Shelley. Toby is running for Onondaga County Sheriff. We learn about his vision for the office and how he plans to win this county-wide race.
Welcome to the #WeeklyWonk. This is my weekly blog about statistics, registration data, and election law on my website, dustinczarny.com. This is a rebrand of my #wonkywednesday and #sundaythoughts columns I have been writing since 2020. In merging these two side projects together I am hoping to be a little more regular in my production. I have also not tied myself to a particular day to release these columns, hoping to release them weekly on the weekend. This way I can have more time to gather the statistics and resources that I want to devote to these articles. This week I examine The Town of Manlius.
The Town of Manlius has one race up this year, a single Town board member seat. Normally towns elect their local offices on odd numbered years. However last year then Town Board member John Deer won an election to become Town Supervisor. This meant he had to vacate his seat on the Town Board. That created a to-fill vacancy on the Manlius Town Board. The election this year will be to fill John Deer’s remaining term which ends in 2023. This means whoever wins will have to run for re-election in 2023. The Town Board nominated former Town Board member Alyssa Italiano to serve this year and she is running for election to fill the vacancy.
Manlius is an up-and-coming Democratic Town. Other than Dewitt and Syracuse it is the third most Democratic town in Onondaga County. The Town Supervisor, all six Town Board Members, and one of the 2 Town Justices are all represented by Democrats. Manlius has an ascendent Democratic Plurality. Democrats account for the plurality of voters at 36%. The GOP is barely in second place with 29% of the vote followed by the non-enrolled also at 29%. For the purpose of regional breakdowns, I will look at the county legislature districts that make up the town of Manlius is carved up into three legislative districts. Eighty-eight percent of the voters reside in OCL 10 which includes the three villages of Minoa, Fayetteville, and Manlius. Eight percent is in OCL 3 which is the Northern most portion of Manlius. Four percent in OCL 12 which southernmost portion of Manlius.
The rise of the Democratic plurality in Manlius can once again be attributed as a reaction to the Trump election in 2016. Since 2009 Democrats have gained 1,900 voters while the GOP has lost 1,362. The non-enrolled have gained 1365 voters and are now four voters behind the GOP. After seeing a major rise during 2016, Democrats overtook the GOP in 2017, which happened to be the first year Democrats won a Town Board office. Since then, Democrats have won every competitive town wide seat in both 2019 & 2021.
Despite being broken up into three legislative districts, proportionally they are similar. The main difference is size with OCL 10 dwarfing both OCL 3 & 12. The main district, OCL 10, has a large Democratic lead over the GOP. OCL 3, the northern portion, is more of n even split though there are more non-enrolled than GOP in it. OCL 12 may be the most “conservative” of the three districts with GOP close to the Dems though also the non-enrolled outnumbers the GOP there as well.
In the top five comparative races we see solid Democratic performance to go along with the registration. All of the races the Democrat won but they are often closer when you look at the local races. President Biden dominated Manlius winning by 29.38% points in 2020. Dana Balter did win Manlius in 2018 (+5.78%) and 2020 (+0.44%). Her underperformance in 2020 could be chalked up to the 4.14% of votes on the WFP line for Steve Williams. Governor Cuomo won Manlius by +5.94% which is a solid performance for him upstate. There best local race to compare to was last year’s Supervisor race which was an open seat with a one-to-one matchup similar to the Town Board race this year. John Deer won the Manlius supervisor race by +3.81 points in 2021.
Alyssa Italiano is running on the Democratic and Working Families line for Town Board in 2022. She is running against David Barnwell who will appear on the GOP and Conservative line.
That does it for this bonus edition of the #WeeklyWonk. Next week I will attempt to do two #weeklyWonks again. The Towns of Onondaga (w2ednesday), and Town of Pompey (Sunday) are on deck for the last investigations before the General Election. Check back each week & subscribe to dustinczarny.com for all content and elections updates.
On October 21, 2022 I had the honor of speaking for the Protect our Freedoms rally in front of the James Handley Federal Building. I spoke about the importance of our Democracy, protecting election workers, and believing and accepting results.
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It’s extremely worrying to me that a massive change to election law — that had already covered two primaries this year — is being issued 18 days before the election.” Dustin Czarny, Democratic elections commissioner, Onondaga County “It’s important to note that Boards of Elections throughout the state have already canvassed ballots — thousands and thousands of ballots have already been canvassed under this law,”
This week I sit down with the newly elected ,leadership at the Onondaga County Democratic Committee. Max Ruckdeschel, the new OCDC CHair, and Prerna Deer, the new OCDC Secretary. Check out their vision for the party this election and beyond. Enjoy.
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Welcome to the #WeeklyWonk. This is my weekly blog about statistics, registration data, and election law on my website, dustinczarny.com. This is a rebrand of my #wonkywednesday and #sundaythoughts columns I have been writing since 2020. In merging these two side projects together I am hoping to be a little more regular in my production. I have also not tied myself to a particular day to release these columns, hoping to release them weekly on the weekend. This way I can have more time to gather the statistics and resources that I want to devote to these articles. This week I examine The Town of Dewitt.
The Town of Dewitt has one race up this year, a single Town board member seat. Normally towns elect their local offices on odd numbered years. However last year then Town Board member Sam Young won an election to become Town Judge. This meant he had to vacate his seat on the Town Board. That created a to-fill vacancy on the Dewitt Town Board. The election this year will be to fill Sam Young’s remaining term which ends in 2023. This means whoever wins will have to run for re-election in 2023. The Town Board nominated former Town Board member Jack Dooling to serve this year and he is running for election to fill the vacancy.
Outside of the City of Syracuse, Dewitt is the most reliable political subdivision. The Town Supervisor, Town Clerk, all six Town Board Members, and one of the 2 Town Justices are all represented by Democrats. When looking at the Town Makeup we can see why. Democrats account for the plurality of voters at 41%. Non-Enrolled voters, like Syracuse, ranks second at 29%. The GOP is at just 25% of the enrollment. For the purpose of regional breakdowns I will look at the county legislature districts that make up the town. Dewitt is carved up into 4 county legislative districts. 50% of the voters reside in OCL 7 which includes East Syracuse, 28% is in OCL 12 which is the Jamesville Portion of Dewitt, 18% in OCL 17 which borders the southeastern corner of Syracuse, and a small 4% is in OCL 5 which is the Northwest corner of Dewitt.
Dewitt has had a rapid rise to becoming a solidly Democratic town. In 2009, though Democrats had a plurality, this disparity between Democrats and GOP was just 550 votes. Since 2009 Democrats have gained 1,220 voters while the GOP has lost 1,022 voters. The Non-enrolled has gained 1,001 voters during that time as well. In 2019 the non-enrolled overtook the GOP. When this happens it typically means the party falling below the non-enrolled line is not competitive. Since 2019 the only non-Democrat who has won Town office is David Gideon for a republican Town Justice in 2020 and Rocco Conte a registered Conservative who is the Highway Superintendent. Both of whom are long term incumbents.
Dewitt is the only town in Onondaga County with 4 legislative zones. This is despite their relatively small population. The only legislative portion that has a GOP plurality is OCL5 which is paired with parts of Cicero and Salina in the lobster formation in the old maps. OCL 7 is the largest portion and most Democratic as it encompasses East Syracuse as well as portions of the North side and southeast side of Syracuse. OCL 17 is also a very Democratic district as it pairs the immediate southeastern suburbs in Dewitt with the 17th Ward in Syracuse. Even the Jamesville portion of Dewitt represented in OCL 12 has a Democratic lean, though that portion is washed out in OCL 12 by the GOP southeastern towns.
In the top 5 comparative races we see dominant Democratic performance to go along with the registration. All of the races the Democrat won by double digits and with over 50% of the vote. Dana Balter won Dewitt twice, in 2018 (+14.03%) & 2020 (+10.67%). She did better in 2018 as there was a significant 3rd party vote in 2020 splitting off Democratic votes. Governor Cuomo won the town of Dewitt by 14.88% in 2018. President Biden dominated Dewitt winning by 31.75% points in 2020. The best equivalent one on one race in Dewitt in recent memory is the Town Justice race in 2021. The Democrat Sam Young won by 16.14% in a year where Democrats did not do well in Onondaga County.
Jack Dooling will appear on the Democratic line for Town Board in 2022. He is running against Jerry Nave, Jr. on the GOP line. There are no minor party endorsements in this race.
That does it for this bonus edition of the #WeeklyWonk. This weekend I will look at the other Democratic town in Onondaga County, the Town of Manlius. I will then look at the towns of Onondaga & Pompey next week. Check back each week & subscribe to dustinczarny.com for all content and elections updates.
“Voting is the only way the people can properly communicate to government,” said Czarny. “That is how you communicate your needs and wants by electing the people that are of your ideology. There is a segment of the population that wants something different so it’s very important for you to go out and vote and make sure your needs are heard.”
Dustin M. Czarny 