Elections Professional and Activist
This week I talk about the upcoming Absentee request deadline October 24th. Request your absentee online at onvote.net by October 24th to be guaranteed to get a ballot. I also give an update on the absentee lawsuit, spoiler, no update because no ruling. Enjoy.
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Welcome to the #weeklywonk. This is my weekly blog about statistics, registration data, and election law on my website, dustinczarny.com. This is a rebrand of my #wonkywednesday and #sundaythoughts columns I have been writing since 2020. In merging these two side projects together I am hoping to be a little more regular in my production. I have also not tied myself to a particular day to release these columns, hoping to release them weekly on the weekend. This way I can have more time to gather the statistics and resources that I want to devote to these articles. This week I examine New York Senate District #50.
Redistricting brought a great deal of change to the New York Senate districts. Senator Mannion’s #SD50 district, like May’s #SD48. The old #SD50 nearly encircled the City of Syracuse starting in the towns of Dewitt and Manlius and grabbing all of the Western Half of Onondaga with a few towns in Cayuga and just parts of the City of Auburn and Syracuse. The new #SD50 is a radically different district. It did keep the towns Clay, Dewitt, Geddes, & Manlius in Onondaga County and added Salina & Cicero. It lost all of the rest of Onondaga County and Cayuga county areas. The Special Master decided to stretch this district north and pick up the entire southern half of the county of Oswego including the cities of Oswego and Fulton.
The redistricting created one of the most competitive Senate districts in the state. Republicans have a slight edge in the district with 33% of the enrollment followed closely by Democrats with 32% of the district. The Non-enrolled are a close third with 28% of the vote setting up one of the more closely divided districts in the Senate. This seat is divided into two counties, but not equally. Onondaga dominates the district with 74% of the registered voters, but Oswego at 26% can still have sway in the district.
Redistricting drastically altered not only the regional makeup of the district, but the partisan lean as well. IF we look at the old #SD50 it was a district that started with a decided GOP lean in 2012 for incumbent John DeFrancisco. However, since then Democrats not only grew but in 2018 surpassing the GOP which led to the election of John Mannion in 2020. However, with the stroke of a pane the Special Master totally reversed and reset the partisan makeup of the district. From 2012 to 2021 Democrats gained 9,784 voters while the GOP lost 1,647 voters, and the non-enrolled gained 9,749 voters. As discussed before all upstate districts needed to ad population as they were artificially kept low to try and cement GOP rule. The Special Master added 8,334 GOP voters to the district while only adding 3,688 N/E and just 358 Democratic voters. An argument can be made this was the most dramatic change in all Senate districts in New York.
There are just two distinct areas in this district, but they are wildly different. The Onondaga Portion of the district has a decided Democratic edge, in fact the non-enrolled voters are remarkably close to overtaking the GOP. The opposite is true in the Oswego portion as the GOP dominates and the non-enrolled threaten to overtake the Democrats. If past trends continue the Onondaga portion will get bluer over the ten years and Oswego will get more red. However, since Onondaga is the substantial portion of the district, we could see Democratic registration rise over the life of the district as the last version of this district did.
It is even harder to get comparative races for this district then #SD48. Instead of doing five comparative races I have had to pare down to four. I am not studying the 2020 congressional race in the district since the Oswego portion of the district was made up of two different congressional races and the comparison would be so different as not to have any weight. Like #SD48, I throw in the results from the last two races John Mannion was in. He lost 2018 by 1.9 points and won in 2020 by 4.96 points. Remember these results are under the old district lines. If the 2020 election were run under the new lines, Joe Biden would have won the district by 7.20 points. Likewise, if the 2018 Governor’s race were run under the new lines Molinaro would have won the new district by 5.78 points.
If we want to extrapolate how Mannion might perform in the new district we can look at the differences in the new and old districts in the Presidential and Governor’s race. In 2020 in the old district, according to New York Redistricting and You, Biden won the district by 13.2 points, six points more than the new district. Mannion won the old district by 4.96 points indicating a tighter race than 2020. According to the New York State Board of Elections Molinaro won the old #SD50 by 1.86 points which was similar the number Mannion lost by (1.9%). However, in 2018 Mannion was a first-time candidate against the well-known Onondaga County Comptroller Robert Antonacci. Mannion is an incumbent with 6 years of running in the Onondaga County portion of the district. Bottomline, all indications are this is a winnable seat for the Democratic incumbent but will be a tight race.
Senator John Mannion (D) is running for re-election in #SD48. He will appear on the Democratic and Working Families Party Line. He has served in the NY State Senate since 2020. He is running against Rebecca Shiroff (R) who appears on the Republican and Conservative line. Shiroff lost a race for Manlius Town Councilor in 2021 and was the campaign manager for Angi Renna who lost to John Mannion in 2020. Renna has gone on to join the Trump-esque “NY Citizens Audit” and become one of New York’s most public election deniers.
That does it for this edition of the #weeklyWonk. Next week I look at doing the towns of Onondaga that are having races this year. I will start off with the towns of Dewitt and Manlius next week. I will then look at Onondaga, & Pompey the next week. Check back each week & subscribe to dustinczarny.com for all content and elections updates.
Along with Ruckdeschel, the following Democrats were voted into leadership:
Today I sit down with Elect Team Pompey candidates Diana Carpenter for Pompey Town Board and Ben Rabin for Pompey Town Judge. We talk about how Pompey Democrats have created a bi partisan coalition to win town offices as well as the unique needs of Pompey community. Enjoy.
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“There’s important races up and down the ballot,” said Czarny. “You can’t just vote every four years. These midterm elections are very important, even down to town elections that are happening.”
Czarny said new voter registrations have to be postmarked by Oct. 14. Any change of address forms need to be received by Oct. 19.
https://www.wrvo.org/2022-10-12/voter-registration-deadline-right-around-the-corner
Its registration week in New York and I talk about the ways you can register for vote. Important deadlines to remember: October 13th deadline to register online through Mydmv (must have a dmv account) Go Here: https://dmv.ny.gov/ October 14th deadline to register for first time in person or by postmark. Go to onvote.net to download forms. October 19th deadline for change of address for previously registered New York Voters to be received by Boards of Elections. I also talk about the absentee lawsuit, redistricting issues around the state, and the FOIL issues in Onondaga County and beyond. Enjoy.
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Welcome to the #weeklywonk. This is my weekly blog about statistics, registration data, and election law on my website, dustinczarny.com. This is a rebrand of my #wonkywednesday and #sundaythoughts columns I have been writing since 2020. In merging these two side projects together I am hoping to be a little more regular in my production. I have also not tied myself to a particular day to release these columns, hoping to release them weekly on the weekend. This way I can have more time to gather the statistics and resources that I want to devote to these articles. This week I examine New York Senate District #48.
Redistricting brought a great deal of change to the New York Senate districts. While Senators May and Mannion avoided having to run against each other, their districts went through transformative change. Senator Rachel May represented the old #SD53 which morphed into the new #SD48. There were some similarities in the old district, mainly the City of Syracuse and the southeast corner of Onondaga with the towns of Fabius, Lafayette, Pompey, and Tully. However, the northern towns of Salina & Cicero as well as the eastern portion of the district with Madison County and a small portion of Oneida was removed. The new district goes west, it added the “DeFrancisco Peninsula” of the City of Syracuse as well as the southern and western tows like Onondaga, Otisco, Spafford, Marcellus, Skaneateles, Elbridge, Van Buren, and Lysander. They also added the entire county of Cayuga including the City of Auburn.
The new #SD48 is definitely a Democratic leading district. Democrats have the plurality of voters (39%) with 76,011 enrolled voters. Republicans are in second place (28%) with 53,340 voters. The Non-enrolled though is right behind (26%) with 50,433 voters. Regionally this district is best summed up into four different regions. The City of Syracuse is 37% of the district with 70,675 voters. The towns of Onondaga in the district are the largest region with 38% of the district with 74,006 voters. The city of Auburn makes up 8% of the district with 14,914 voters and the rest of Cayuga is 17% if the district with 33,301 voters.
The districts changed so much after redistricting it is almost worthless to look at the history of the district, but I will do so anyway. The old #SD53 district was a solid Democratic district. During its inception in 2012 and 2020 Democrats gained by 4,021 voters. The GOP lost 1650 voters. The Non-enrolled gained the most with 5,579 voters. Redistricting saw all three gains significantly with Democrats adding 7,820 voters, GOP adding 8,239 voters, and the N/E adding 6,968 voters. This is because the upstate districts needed to add significant population as the Census showed stagnation upstate seven growths downstate. Upstate districts, which were underpopulated in 2012 to cement GOP majorities, had to add population which means more voters as well.
Of the four distinct regions of this district, it is clear that Syracuse has the most potential to carry weight in the district. Though it is second in voter population, the overwhelming partisan lean of Syracuse (+30,298 DEM) is what drives this district’s Lean Democratic ratings. The City of Auburn has a similar Democratic partisan advantage (+2,234 DEM) but somewhat less pronounced & much less population. Both Urban cores the GOP are in third place behind the N/E voters. The most populous region, the towns of Onondaga, does have a solid GOP Lean (+4774 GOP). So do the Towns of Cayuga (+5,087 GOP). Democrats though have solid second place finishes in these regions as opposed to the GOP in Democratic regions.
Since this is the first year of the new district, we do not have any true prior results on which we can rely. I am using a Frankenstein method to compile data and get an idea on how this district might perform comparing the 2020 Presidential and Congressional and 2018 Governor. If this district were in place in 2020 it would have voted for Biden by an overwhelming 18.2 points. However, the district only barely supported Dana Balter by 2.94 points and Cuomo by .98 points in 2018. However, in both races there were third party Democratic leaning candidates (Steve Williams on WFP in 2020, and Stephanie Miner on SAM in 2018) that could have split off Democratic votes.
Rachel May did win the old #SD53 by double digits both times she ran, 10.08 points in 2020, and 13.77 in 2018. She out polled both Cuomo and Balter in those races as well. According to NY Redistricting and you, the new #SD48 & old #SD53 can be expected to perform the same as Biden won #SD53 by 18.6 and won #SD48 by 18.2 points.
Senator Rachel May (D) is running for re-election in #SD48. She will appear on the Democratic and Working Families Party Line. She has served in the NY State Senate since 2018. She is running against Julia Abbott (R) who is a sitting Onondaga County Legislator. There is a third-party candidate on the Conservative line Justin Corretti (C) from the Auburn area.
That does it for this edition of the #weeklyWonk. Next week I will continue my run finishing races on the ballots this year. I will start out with finish my look at the state legislature races with NY Senate district fifty as well as the towns of Manlius, Onondaga, and Pompey. Check back each week & subscribe to dustinczarny.com for all content and elections updates.
“Thursday, she brought to the Onondaga County Board of Elections a “notice of claim,” paperwork that preserves the group’s right to file a lawsuit, Elections Commissioner Dustin Czarny said.”
Further Statement on this story from me below:
This story is just a tip of the iceberg as to what we at the Onondaga County Board of Elections, and election officials across the country have been facing. Since the certification of the 2020 elections, we have seen onerous and burdensome FOIA requests concerning the 2020 election. I believe in transparency, and I believe in the public’s right to know. I have fought for more open ness not only at my board but across the state. My position was, and remains simple, we have nothing to hide and shedding a light on bi-partisan election process should ease concerns and lead to acceptance of results. Before 2020 for the most part that philosophy has proven successful.
Unfortunately, with the election deniers from 2020 I have concluded this philosophy may never be successful. It is clear that they have reached the conclusion that the election was fraudulent, and no amount of data or hard evidence will ever change this. In face it is a self-sustaining belief because when given proof against whatever claim they make, they then either use the proof as further proof of wrongdoing or just move on to the next ridiculous claim.
As we move into the midterm election, nearly two years later, these FOIA requests have become more frequent. This is not an accident. Under New York State Law Boards of Elections can start to dispose of election data 22 months after the date of the election. This has led to a new frenzy of requests. However, those requests are being organized and spurned on by Reddit and 4chan forums that originate templated FOIA requests. Their stated goal is to “gum up” the works at Board of Elections offices and are using the fear and bias of their supporters against them to drive them into a frenzy.
If it were not so dangerous, I would almost feel sorry for these deniers. They are destined to be lumped into the same category as 9/11 truthers, bigfoot hunters, and ancient alien enthusiasts. They have allowed themselves to believe in their divine right to rule that they have driven themselves down a dark path. That path is littered with charlatans and partisans whose sole intent is not the truth but to use their followers to separate them from their hard-earned money and precious time. They do so to elevate themselves and not our country, and certainly not our democracy.
As for the Citizens Audit of New York I have looked over their original audit and now their new “Notice of Claim.” As with their original audit they make claims without giving proof of how they got to their conclusions. They do so in the name of protecting anonymity of the voters but in my opinion, it is to shield their wild claims from being refuted. I note that the 1850 birthdate claim is being repeated even though it has been thoroughly explained in the press and the media. Outside of dropping off documents and issuing FOIAs we have had no direct engagement with the NY Citizens Audit, and they have refused to provide proof of their allegations. They rely on quasi science from anonymous “experts” who make wild unsubstantiated claims about expected turnout to “prove” there is fraud. Losing an election is not proof there was fraud, it is proof your candidate did not connect with the public as much as they did you.
In the meantime, the Onondaga County Board of Elections will continue to follow the law and provide information as required. It has basically been a full-time job in my office just responding to this ever-increasing amount of FOIAs and I know we are not alone. Unfortunately, we expect this to continue, not just for 2020 but every election going forward. As long as there are followers that will further the work of charlatans and false prophets, I imagine every election will continue with these onerous requests. We will do our work as Election Officials to ensure fair elections, but it will be the taxpayers that will ultimately foot the bill for these post-election witch hunts.
On October 6, 2022 I was unanimously nominated for a 6th term as Elections Commissioner of Onondaga County Board of Elections by the Onondaga County Democratic Committee. Here is the speech I gave. Congratulations to our new officers Max Ruckdeschel (Chair), Prerna Deer (Secretary), and Dan Petrick (treasurer).
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Czarny said turnout in the region may not only be large, it may be definitive in that key congressional race as well.
“The margins in the House are, might run right through Central New York. It may be the seat that decides who controls the House, so I think we will see some intensity in turnout,” Czarny said.
Dustin M. Czarny