Elections Professional and Activist
This week I talk with Jarret Berg executive director and founder of Vote Early NY. We talk about NY’s 4th general Election EV period and how the expanded sites have made it easier to vote. We also talk about the fallout of the absentee lawsuit being rejected and what that means for Bi-partisan boards of elections. Enjoy.
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“They’re showing about five minutes between the time they come in the door till when they get their ballot which is amazing.” DUSTIN CZARNY, ONONDAGA CO. BOE DEMOCRATIC COMMISSIONER
Democrats — such as the Onondaga County Democratic elections commissioner, Dustin Czarny — suggest that national Republicans are trying to muddy the election integrity waters ahead of the vote with the last-minute lawsuit.
https://www.nysun.com/article/voters-should-expect-extra-innings-in-2022-midterms
I talk about the early stats for #EarlyVoting and live react to the 3rd Department ruling throwing out the lawsuits on absentee ballot canvassing and covid excuse. Enjoy.
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All told, Democrats have cast 52% of the votes so far, compared with 26% for Republicans. Some 22% have been cast by other voters, Czarny reported Monday.
“This is actually a surprisingly large showing, comparative to a presidential election, which you don’t see in a midterm. I think it’s indicative of a higher turnout election, maybe even higher than 2018, which was another high turnout election,”
“Allowing these nine days for people to choose where to vote,” he added, “And we have more sites than ever, more hours than ever, It gives them more chances to be able to vote in this very important election.”
https://www.localsyr.com/news/local-news/second-day-of-early-voting-in-central-new-york/
Welcome to the #WeeklyWonk. This is my weekly blog about statistics, registration data, and election law on my website, dustinczarny.com. This is a rebrand of my #wonkywednesday and #sundaythoughts columns I have been writing since 2020. In merging these two side projects together I am hoping to be a little more regular in my production. I have also not tied myself to a particular day to release these columns, hoping to release them weekly on the weekend. This way I can have more time to gather the statistics and resources that I want to devote to these articles. This week I examine The Town of Onondaga.
Like Dewitt & Manlius, The Town of Onondaga has one race up this year, a single Town board member seat. Normally towns elect their local offices on odd numbered years. Like Manlius, John Mahar a sitting Town Councilor John Mahar ran in 2021 for Town Supervisor. He was unopposed and won the seat which created the opening in this year’s race to fill the vacancy of the town Board seat. The all-GOP Town Board appointed someone to serve this year, but he has a Democratic challenger. The winner of this year’s race will have to run again next year.
Onondaga is one of the newer towns to have a Democratic plurality. The emerging Democratic influence in the town as of yet has not produced an electoral victory but the Town Committee is energized and working. Democrats represent 33% of the town registered voters, followed closely by the GOP (31%) and closely in third the non-enrolled at 29%. It is about as even a split as any town in Onondaga County. The Town is broken up into two different County legislative district. OCL 15 which makes up 11% of the district consists of connective eds bordering the City of Syracuse and stretching to Manlius. The rest of the town (89%) is located in OCL 11.
The Town of Onondaga is the perfect example of the Trump effect on suburban communities. From 2009 to 2015 we did see a small decline in GOP enrollment, but the Democratic enrollment was stagnant. That was all supercharged in 2016 with the candidacy and election of Donald Trump. Since 2009 the Democrats have gained 942 voters while the GOP have lost 543 voters. The Non-enrolled also saw their numbers increase in a similar pattern, gaining 921 voters since 2009.
The two legislative districts work to separate the Democratic near suburbs from the rest of the town. OCL 15 has a decided Democratic makeup with non-enrolled actually outnumbering the GOP. OCL 11 is a split district with near equal enrollment for the Democrats and GOP and the Non-enrolled are not far behind. This will all change with redistricting, but this is what the GOP had in mind when they segmented this town in 2011.
In the top five comparative races we see this town while close in Democratic enrollment, it only seems to be evident in national elections. President Biden won this town by 11.96 points. However, John Katko who resides in nearby Camillus, won this town by 14.22% in 2020 and 12.10 in 2018. The GOP candidate for Governor in 2018 Marc Molinaro won it by 5.19% but that is below how he performed in other towns in Onondaga County. There are no real local races to look at as the town board and town wide positions were uncontested in 2019 & 2021. However, when we look at the Brindisi Fogel race for Supreme Court, we see that in low turnout elections this town is solidly GOP as Fogel won by 8.28% here despite losing the county overall.
Ryan Suser is running on the Democratic and Working Families line for Town Board in 2022. He is running against John Wheatley who will appear on the GOP and Conservative line. Wheatley sits on the Town Board because of his appointment to fill the vacancy earlier in the year.
That does it for this edition of the #WeeklyWonk. Next week I will attempt to do two #weeklyWonks again. The Towns of Pompey (Wednesday), and a quick look at Onondaga County as a whole (Sunday) for the last investigations before the General Election. Check back each week & subscribe to dustinczarny.com for all content and elections updates.
Czarny and other Democrats expressed concern that Republican election officials in New York were defying a court order at a time of national GOP efforts to sow confusion among voters and toss ballots.
“It’s still very concerning that it even went this far,” Czarny said.
Czarny said local boards were behind but “that doesn’t mean we can’t catch up. We have until Election Day.”
“We’ll be prepared for as much as the voters want to throw at us,” Onondaga County County Democratic Elections Commissioner Dustin Czarny said. “I think we have to recognize that we live in a hyper-partisan time, and the Federal elections in 2018 were much higher turnout than we normally see in the midterm – slightly below presidential levels. I believe that’s what we’re going to see this year.”
https://www.wrvo.org/elections/2022-10-28/early-voting-begins-saturday-in-new-york
Dustin M. Czarny